Tsai Ing-wen and Su Tseng-chang are like Oil and Water

Tsai Ing-wen and Su Tseng-chang are like Oil and Water
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
March 4, 2010

Su Tseng-chang says he is refusing to run for mayor of Xinbei City because he respects the precedent set by George Washington, who refused a third term as president. Do you believe his explanation? Does Su Tseng-chang believe his own explanation?

Yesterday Su Tseng-chang publicly announced his bid for mayor of Taipei. He said that he would run to win. He said if he won he would serve out his full term. He said he would not run for president in 2012. People have long known that Su Tseng-chang would make such a declaration. They also consider such a declaration pointless, since those who believe him will continue to believe him, and those who disbelieve him will continue to disbelieve him. Besides, Su Tseng-chang's record when it comes to keeping his word is less than impressive.

Tsai Ing-wen and Su Tseng-chang have very different strategic views of the five cities elections. Tsai Ing-wen wants to adopt a step by step approach. She wants Su Tseng-chang to take Xinbei City. But Su Tseng-chang has set his sights on Taipei City. He is gambling with his own political future and the future of the entire Democratic Progressive Party. Most people think the disagreement between Su and Tsai is merely over election strategy. But a deeper look reveals that their disagreement has affected their ongoing power struggle and the political paths mapped out for themselves and their party.

First, let's look at Su Tseng-chang's election strategy. Su must say that if he wins the mayoral race, he will not run for president. Otherwise, he may as well forget about running. But if Su wins by a sufficient margin in Taipei City, he will become the national leader of the Democratic Progressive Party. He will surely run for president, invoking the principle of "vox populi, vox dei." On the other hand, if he loses, having established himself as the leader of the DPP during the election campaign, it would only be natural for him to run for president. It is not hard to visualize the evening of the five cities elections. Win or lose, the crowds will surely chant, "Su for president!"

Su Tseng-chang is making a Machiavellian political gamble. By doing so, he has brought himself into conflict with Tsai Ing-wen's authority and political path. Tsai wants Su to play by her rules. But Su has essentially hijacked Tsai and is forcing her to play by his rules. By becoming a candidate for mayor of Taipei, Su has positioned himself at the head of the DPP's five mayoral candidates. He will now become the party's real power center. Chairman Tsai has had the rug pulled out from under her. Su Tseng-chang is also versed in the thinking and practices of the Kaoshsiung Incident era lawyers. Throughout the election campaign his presentation, his rhetoric, his thinking, and the atmosphere he has created have diverged widely from Tsai Ing-wen's expecations. The election campaign has revealed the contradiction between the two individuals' authority and political paths. This is inevitable. It is not something that the two individuals can change through the force of their will.

Two elements are fueling the fire. The first is, who will run for Xinbei City mayor? The second is, who will run for president in 2012? If Tsai Ing-wen runs for Xinbei City mayor, the game is more likely to play out according to Su Tseng-chang's plan. The result will be a "Su/Tsai ticket." But the probability that Tsai will run for Xinbei City mayor is low. Mainly because Tsai's vision differs from Su's. As a result, the Democratic Progressive Party candidates for Xinbei City mayor are likely to fall into two categories. The first category is "Yu Hsi-kuen/Frank Hsieh." This would precipitate controversy at the national level. It is also something Su Tseng-chang would be unhappy to see. The second category is "Chen Ching-chun / Su Jia-chuan." This would lead to Su Tseng-chang "selling Xinbei City short." It would expose his selfish use of the elections as a training process for his own troops. Therefore which DPP candidate runs for Xinbei City mayor, and which DPP candidate is capable of becoming Xinbei City mayor, will affect the ongoing power struggle between Su and Tsai.

At a deeper level, Su and Tsai have even more conflicts, both over ideology and political path. Tsai Ing-wen has lifted the Democratic Progressive Party out of the rubble, and elevated it to where it is today. The task was not an easy one. Her "Political Platform for the Decade" reveals her vision for the Democratic Progressive Party and Taiwan. It is one that requires far-sightedness unconstrained by short term considerations. Su Tseng-chang has turned the five cities elections into his own Machievellian political gamble. He has coopted the historic forum Tsai Ing-wen established, and crowded Tsai Ing-wen off the podium. Perhaps Tsai never intended to become embroiled in a power struggle. But if Su Tseng-chang, Frank Hsieh, Yu Shyi-kun and others set the agenda for the five cities election campaign, Tsai Ing-wen may respond to these challenges to her ideology and political path.

So who will run for president? Su said if he is elected mayor he will not run for president. If he means it, Tsai Ing-wen may become the Democratic Progressive Party's leading candidate. That is why Tsai Ing-wen has no reason to run for Xinbei City mayor. She wants to remain unencumbered. But if Su wins in Taipei City, he can say that he is "acquiescing to the popular will," and run for president. He could suggest a "Su/Tsai ticket" that Tsai Ing-wen would find difficult to refuse. Another possibility is that Su Tseng-chang might lose. Even the "Two Cities" would be lost. Would Su run for president? How would Tsai deal with the mess left behind?

Tsai Ing-wen lacks the clout to keep Su Tseng-chang from turning the election into an all out gamble. But she can still choose whether to bet her own chips on Su Tseng-chang. The biggest chip in her hand is her "Political Platform of the Decade," embodying her own vision for Taiwan.

Su Tseng-chang's momentum is now at its peak. Tsai Ing-wen does not dare launch a frontal assault. Therefore, the two must maintain an appearance of unity. Key indicators to watch for include whether Tsai Ing-wen runs for Xinbei City mayor. If Tsai Ing-wen adopts a hands off attitude, Chen Ching-chun or Yu Shyi-kun will run. The differences between Tsai and Su will be overlooked and covered up. Until then, Tsai and Su will be like oil and water.

蔡英文蘇貞昌皮合肉不合
【聯合報╱社論】
2010.03.04 02:49 am

蘇貞昌說，他不選新北市長，是因效法華盛頓不選第三屆。你信不信？蘇貞昌自己信不信？

蘇貞昌昨日公開宣布參選台北市長。他說，要選就要贏，贏就要做滿，不會選二○一二總統。事前，所有的人皆猜中蘇貞昌一定會這麼說，但是說了卻無異白說；因為，不信者恆不信，何況蘇貞昌過去的言語誠信紀錄實在並不好看。

蔡英文與蘇貞昌對五都選舉的戰略構想大相逕庭。蔡英文希能穩扎穩打、步步為營，期望蘇貞昌能拿下新北市；但蘇貞昌卻選擇了直指台北市，將個人的政治前程與整個民進黨的前景，操作成一場豪賭。一般人只看出，蘇蔡二人的歧見是在選舉戰略；但深一層看，此一歧見其實已然牽動了蔡蘇二人之間的權力競逐與路線爭衡。

先談蘇貞昌的選舉戰略。他此刻當然要說，若選贏即不選總統，否則就根本不必選了。但是，蘇若真能很漂亮地打下台北市，又在五都選舉中確立了他在民進黨中的全國性龍頭地位，屆時他「應人民要求」參選總統的機率極大。反過來說，倘若戰敗，卻已在選戰中確立其龍頭地位，則轉戰總統大選也是順理成章。想像中，五都選舉謝票之夜，無論勝負，蘇貞昌台下群眾的口號皆將是「選總統」。

蘇貞昌這場投機權謀的政治豪賭，已與蔡英文在權力及路線上出現相當尖銳的牴觸。蔡希望蘇照著她的布局落子，但蘇如今卻形同挾持著蔡按照他的棋譜下棋。蘇既以台北市長候選人取得了民進黨在五都選舉中的龍頭地位，勢必將成為黨的實際權力樞紐，蔡的主席地位即被架空；再以蘇貞昌所擅美麗島律師世代的思維及手法，在整個選戰中所表現及營造的論述、思維、氣質與氛圍，亦必然與蔡英文所期望者出現重大歧異。隨著選戰開打，兩人在權力與路線上的矛盾必是日趨顯著，這將是不隨蘇蔡二人個人意志為轉移的必然趨勢。

火上加油的因素有二：一、誰來選新北市？二、誰來選二○一二總統？如果蔡英文去選新北市，就較有可能一切隨蘇貞昌的棋譜發展，然後就是「蘇蔡配」；但蔡投入新北市的機率極低，主因是蔡有不同於蘇的願景。於是，新北市的民進黨市長候選人，有可能出現兩種類型：一、「游錫?／謝長廷類」，這非但有全國性的爭議，且亦是蘇貞昌自己所極不願見。二、「陳景峻／蘇嘉全型」，這又會使蘇貞昌「放空新北市」，藉選舉來為自己的轎夫「練兵」的自私心理充分暴露。因而，民進黨誰來選新北市、及民進黨能不能贏得新北市，皆將牽動蘇蔡之間的權力競逐。

再深一層看，蘇蔡之間更有理念及路線爭衡。蔡英文將民進黨從廢墟中帶到今日境地，確實不易；而她正在建構所謂的「十年政綱」，更顯示她對民進黨及台灣的願景，必有超越現實的襟抱。如今，蘇貞昌將整個五都選舉帶向投機權謀豪賭之路，形同是搶佔了蔡英文搭起的歷史講壇，並將搭台的蔡英文擠下台去。蔡也許原本並無權力之爭的意念，但倘若五都之戰被蘇貞昌、謝長廷、游錫?等把持了選戰主軸，蔡英文就極有可能為了她的理念與路線迎對權力挑戰。

如此問題就來到了誰選總統？蘇說選上台北市長就不選總統，如果此話當真，蔡英文即可能是代表民進黨選總統的第一人選。因而，蔡英文就更不能選新北市，以免折損。問題是，蘇若選上台北市，又「應人民要求」轉選總統，並主張「蘇蔡配」，蔡英文將如何因應？另一種發展是蘇貞昌敗選，甚至「雙城」皆敗，則蘇還要不要選總統？蔡在被蘇打亂的一盤殘棋中又將如何自處？

蔡英文如今沒有實力阻擋蘇貞昌將大局帶向一場豪賭，但是她卻仍能決定對她自己所能掌握的籌碼是否隨蘇貞昌下注。而其中最大的一筆籌碼，就是她自己與她將在「十年政綱」中所寄寓的台灣願景。

蘇貞昌如今氣焰正旺，蔡英文不敢攖其鋒，所以二人必然仍可維持表象上的整合。未來觀察的主要指標，將是蔡英文是否出戰新北市；如果蔡英文令其自然發展成游錫?或陳景峻參選，蔡蘇的瞻矚歧異亦就不遑掩飾了。在此以前，蔡蘇的關係是皮合肉不合。