Solution to Mainland Dilemma is Political Reform

Solution to Mainland Dilemma is Political Reform
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
February 25, 2011

A butterfly fluttering its wings in Beijing, could touch off a storm in New York, This is the famous "Butterfly Effect" outlined in Chaos Theory. On the other hand, could a butterfly fluttering its wings from afar, touch off a storm on Mainland China?

Tunisia has undergone a "Jasmine Revolution." It has driven out Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the strongman who ruled the country for 23 years. This was followed by a similar revolution in Egypt. Hosni Mubarak, who ruled the country for 30 years, was forced to step down. The butcher who ruled Sudan for 30 years, has also announced that he will not seek another term. Muammar al-Gaddafi, who ruled Libya for 40 years, has imposed a bloody crackdown on democratic protesters. Sparks from these flames in North Africa and the Middle East are now drifting toward Mainland China.

A second wave of "Jasmine Revolution" protests may occur on Sunday. Pro government media outlets dismissed the previous wave of protests as a "walk in the park," as "nothing more than a few people engaged in performance art." But if this was "performance art," then the endless stream of petitioners in Beijing are also enaged in "performance art." Those protesting the illegal demolition of their homes, those who hanged themselves in the ruins of their homes, are also practioners of "performance art." Urban squatters who cannot afford even a tiny room, are also "ants" engaged in "performance art." Those who gather and block streets, creating "mass incidents" are also enaged in "performance art." These people may indeed be a "minority." But the Jasmin Revolution in Tunisia was touched off by an unemployed college graduate who immolated himself. Who could have predicted that collective anger suppressed for decades would find an outlet in his act of "performance art?"

In fact, the Beijing authorities are acutely aware of the people's dissatisfaction. Even the People's Daily has acknowledged that Mainland China "faces more and more painful problems." Jasmine blossoms have yet to appear in the streets. Nevertheless the CCP leadership gathered last week at the CCP Central Party School to discuss appropriate responses. Hu Jintao stressed the need for three "maximizations." Maximize those factors inspiring social vitality. Maximize those factors encouraging social harmony. Maximize those factors preventing social disharmony. Alas, these three "maximizations" contradict each other. If one wishes to "maximize those factors inspiring social vitality," how can one possibly "maximize those factors preventing social disharmony?" Hu Jintao's answer was, "Further strengthen and improve information network management. Improve the management of virtual society," In short, "under the unified leadership of party committees, the government will strictly regulate the Internet."

The word "Jasmine" has been blocked, Even the word "tomorrow" has been blocked. Beijing is keeping close tabs on the Internet. But its approach harks back to the thousand year old Great Wall. Back then the Great Wall created a closed regime. It closed off the people. It closed off the nation. In the end the enemy arrived wave upon wave from the sea. China, under attack from advanced warships and their powerful guns, was nearly partitioned and wiped out. Today, the Great Wall lies in ruins. Officials are doing everything possible to erect a Great Wall on the Internet. But their efforts will be futile. Instead, they will merely encourage the people to undermine the wall out of spite. If the government blocks the word "Jasmine," Internet users will simply use "Rose" or "Peony." Is the CCP really prepared to block the words for every flower known to man?

In fact, the Beijing authorities and the people sporting jasmine blossoms, are all thinking the same thing. They are all yearning for freedom and democracy. Beijing considers them a scourge. But evading problems instead of facing them merely intensifies one's fears. For example, the Tiananmen Indicent occurred 22 years ago. Yet the CCP is still unable to confront the pain.

The science of economics tells us that "whatever is unsustainable, will be sustained for long." Mainland China has long faced "growing pains." Even Premier Wen Jiabao has warned that without political reform, the fruits of economic reform cannot be sustained. Zhongnanhai is deeply anxious. It senses the urgency. It realizes the importance. Otherwise, why would Premier Wen Jiabao say such a thing?

The CCP authorities ought to have more confidence in themselves. The CCP's achievements in economic reform over the past 30 years are clear for the world to see. But now it must reform itself politically as well. Otherwise it will be building a tower on quicksand. Spontaneous change is called reform. Forced change is called revolution. Look at the fate of collapsed authoritarian regimes. Reform or revolution. The CCP must take the initiative. The reason why should be clear.

Mainland China is not the Middle East, The current wave of "pollen" may make the Beijing authorities cough and wheeze. A few anti-histamines and it will pass. But the CCP authorities will be the only ones experiencing hay fever. The public on the Mainland loves flowers. None of them are about to chop down trees to eliminate the cause of hay fever.

A turbulent Chinese Mainland will make world peace impossible. Taiwan will also remain vulnerable. The Chinese Mainland endured the bloody Cultural Revolution. Those in the know on Mainland China have issued a "farewell to revolution" declaration. They have done so out of bitter experience. But some social contradictions can only be alleviated by a democratic revolution. This is a classic dilemma. How can Mainland China implement democracy with "Chinese characteristics?" This is not merely a problem for the Chinese people. It is a problem for mankind as a whole.

中國大陸的難局須以政治改革紓解
【聯合報╱社論】
2011.02.25 03:29 am

北京一隻蝴蝶振翅，可能掀起紐約一場風暴，這是混沌理論知名的「蝴蝶效應」；現在，遠方的蝴蝶振翅，會不會在中國掀起風暴？

突尼西亞的「茉莉花革命」，逼走執政二十三年的強人阿里，埃及緊接著轟下在位三十年的總統穆巴拉克，蘇丹執政三十年的屠夫也宣布不再連任，統治利比亞四十年的格達費則正用血腥鎮壓民主浪潮。這把火繼續在北非、中東怒燒，火星也飄到中國大陸。

大陸「茉莉花活動」周日可能有第二波，傾政府的媒體評論人民上回的「散步」，「只是少數人搞的行為藝術」。若這是「行為藝術」，每天絡繹於途「上訪」北京的，也是「行為藝術」；抗議不法拆遷，在家園廢墟上吊的，也是「行為藝術」；寄身都會、買不起一間小房的，當然也是「蟻族」的「行為藝術」；聚集堵路圍街的「群體事件」，更是「行為藝術」。這些人或許確是「少數人」，但引爆茉莉花革命的也只是突尼西亞一個失業的大學畢業生自焚，誰料到社會壓抑幾十年的集體憤怒就在這一件「行為藝術」上找到突破口？

中共對人民的不滿其實高度敏感，連人民日報也承認中國「面臨越來越多痛苦問題」。在茉莉花還沒出現街頭前，中共領導上周已齊聚中央黨校會商因應之道，胡錦濤特別標舉三個「最大限度」要牢牢把握：最大限度激發社會活力、最大限度增加和諧因素、最大限度減少不和諧因素。只是這三個「最大限度」不免相互矛盾，既要「最大限度激發社會活力」，又如何能「最大限度減少不和諧因素」？胡錦濤給的答案是：「進一步加強和完善資訊網路管理，提高對虛擬社會的管理水準」；簡言之，就是對網路要「黨委統一領導，政府嚴格管理」。

網路「茉莉花」被封鎖了，甚至連「明天」兩字也封殺了。北京嚴管網路的手法，完全是幾千年前的「長城」思維；長城當年只是造就了封閉的政權、封閉的人民、封閉的國家，最後敵人卻是從海上一波波湧來，中國面對列強的船堅砲利，差點瓜分亡國。如今長城只剩廢墟了，官方千方百計還妄想在網路築牆，恐怕亦只是徒勞，反而更激起人民以「翻牆」為樂；官方封鎖「茉莉花」，已有網民建議換「玫瑰花」、「牡丹花」，中共能把網路上面的花全數封掉嗎？

北京和手拿茉莉花的人民，其實想的都是同一件事，即「自由」和「民主」；只是人民求之若渴，北京懼之如洪水猛獸。但是，逃避問題的恐懼比面對問題的恐懼更讓自己恐懼。像六四，二十二年了，仍是中共不能碰的痛處。

經濟學有一句話：「撐不住的東西撐不久。」中國面對「成長痛」已很久了，連溫家寶都預警若再不政治改革，經濟改革的果實將不能保；中南海若對這問題沒有焦慮感、急迫性及重大歧異，溫家寶何出此言？

中共當局其實可以更有自信些，三十年來，中共在經濟面改革開放的成果舉世共睹；但政治面的改革開放若不到位，一切終究如浮沙建塔。自發的改變，叫改革；被逼的改變，叫革命。看看那些垮台的獨裁政權下場，中共要主動改革或被革命，道理甚明。

中國不是中東，這波「花粉熱」或許只是讓北京當局難受一下，用一點抗組織胺即能過去；但畢竟患花粉熱的只是中共政權，大陸人民卻喜歡花團錦簇，沒有人用砍花斫木來消滅花粉熱的。

一個動亂的中國，必無和平的世界，台灣更是首當其衝。經過血淵骨嶽的文革浩劫，中國有識之士在痛定思痛之餘發出「告別革命」的思考，但諸多社會矛盾的確亟須以民主改革來紓解。千古難局，中國究竟如何寫出具有「中國特色」的民主篇章？這不僅是中國人的大事，也是人類的大事。