Compound Disasters Require Compound Disaster Prevention

Compound Disasters Require Compound Disaster Prevention
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
March 15, 2011

What is a "compound disaster?" In November, an earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter Scale struck, just off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture in Japan. A few people escaped through gaps between the ruins. But who knew that 125 km offshore, at the epicenter, the quake would cause a tsunami. The tsunami would race toward land at 800 kph. Flood waters and debri would take the lives of many of those amid the ruins who survived the quake itself. The nightmare did not end there. Even more alarmingly, the 10 m high waves destroyed the Fukushima nuclear power plant reactor's core cooling system. This triggered a hydrogen gas explosion and a partial reactor core meltdown. Human lives were exposed to the threat of nuclear disaster.

Yesterday President Ma presided over a national security level disaster response conference. He characterized the earthquake and tsunami as a "compound disaster," or "complex emergency." One catastrophe was followed by another. The harmful effects were not merely additive, but geometric. They were the result of a multiplier effect. In the face of such "compound disasters," one needs "compound disaster awareness." The individual, the society, and the government, must think anew, by establishing new disaster prevention programs.

First, let us address emergency disaster response. The Fukushima nuclear disaster had a domino effect. One reactor after another contributed to the disaster. As many as 130,000 people became part of the "Great Fukushima Evacuation." The area of the evacuation zone was enlarged repeatedly. The number of people evacuated was increased repeatedly as well.

Contrast this with floods caused by Typhoon Morakot in 2009. The rainstorms caused landslides that destroyed Hsiaolin Village. This too was a "compound disaster." The county government failed to order an evacuation. In retrospect, this caused the deaths of 443 people. According to reports, the county chief at the time said any attempt to evacuate tens of thousands of people in such a short time would have been "absurd." It would however, be more accurate to say that absent foolproof disaster prevention measures, sitting and watching as the rain continued to fall was far more "absurd." The county government had no evacuation plans. That is why it characterized any attempt to evacuate people as "absurd." What were county officials doing, but inverting cause and effect?

Post disaster efforts must also be planned in advance. Water scarcity, starvation, food shortages, and a lack of electricity are to be expected. At this time of year, nightime temperatures in northeastern Japan drop below zero degrees Celsius. A lack of food and heat can be fatal. The impact of the disaster continues to spread. The disaster area is a base for the semiconductor and automobile industries. The quake disrupted production. Parts shortages worsened the impact of the disaster. Increased unemployment will be difficult to avoid. Such "compound disasters" involve simultaneous disasters. They extend the duration of the initial disaster. One disaster follows on the heels of another. The current disaster will severely test the Japanese government and people.

President Ma presided over a national security level disaster prevention and response conference. The imaginary topic was "What if this had happened on Taiwan?" Could we can handle it? This earthquake was 400 times as powerful as the 9/21 earthquake. Reconstruction following the 9/21 earthquake took over ten years. Suppose a magnitude 9.0 earthquake happened on Taiwan? Would we be able to cope?

The first response to "compound disasters," should be to adopt the proper attitude, and establish a fundamental response mechanism. Obtaining the equipment necessary to cope with disasters is important. But by comparison, it is secondary. For example, one might experience a record 1000 year flood due to heavy rains. One cannot build storm drains large enough to drain all water from our city streets. One cannot build levees high enough to prevent all rivers from flooding the adjacent land. Doing so would cost hundreds of billions of dollars more than we have. Besides, even if we spend huge sums of money, it may not help. Therefore the proper attitude should be disaster prevention rather than disaster response. One must go with the flow, and not swim against the tide.

Take landslides for example, It is far better to avoid building in high risk areas such as the mouths of valleys and at the foot of cliffs, rather than to build high walls or to drill deep footings. The key is land planning and the drafting of national land safety maps. One must thoroughly understand the nature of each plot of land in the event a disaster occurs. Only land which can be used, ought to be used. Short-sighted land use must be avoided. Taiwan is situated in the lower latitudes, close to the equator. Its climate poses increased risks. People on Taiwan must be aware.

Taiwan has experienced many natural disasters. Typhoon Herb, the 9/21 earthquake, Typhoon Nari, Typhoon Morakot. Response strategies have always been ad hoc. One year at a time. No further consideration has been given to learning from past mistakes, to minimize damage from the next disaster. Each time a disaster occurs, officials are overwhelmed. They merely react. They never anticipate. Their goal is merely to minimize the damage. They never think about preventing disasters from happening in the first place. Concepts such as "compound disasters" and "extreme weather" should inspire "compound disaster prevention." Officials must think comprehensively, and long-term. From formulating policy to holding drills, they must rethink disaster prevention.

The images which have appeared in the media over the past few days, provide considerable food for thought. In Japan, toddlers wear helmets in public places. For years Japanese kindergartens have had desks fitted with basic equipment. They have a place for protective headgear. When an earthquake strikes, toddlers don their helmets. Their ability to protect themselves keeps injuries to a minimum. Such tiny indicators provide considerable food for thought.

複合式災難要複合式防災
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.03.15

什麼叫做「複合式災難」？十一日在日本本州宮城縣外海芮氏規模九的強震中，也許有人在廢墟的空隙中逃過一劫；不料，在外海一二五公里震央引爆的海嘯，以八百公里的時速撲向陸地，洪水及泥石又奪走許多在廢墟中倖存的生命；但噩夢未醒，更驚悚的是十公尺高的浪頭打壞福島幾座核電廠的爐心冷卻系統，進而引發氫爆及爐心部分熔解，人命又暴露在核災的威脅下。

馬總統日昨在國安層級的災害應變會上，以「複合式災難」界定此一新的災害形態；巨災一波未平一波又起，其造成的禍害不只是加法關係，而是幾何級數的乘數效果。面對這種「複合式災難」，當有「複合式防災」的意識，應從個人、社區、社會到政府，建立一套全新的防災思維與方案。

先從災變猝然爆發後的應變談起。福島核災猶如骨牌效應，一個反應爐接著一個反應爐相繼釀災，這正是高達十三萬人「福島大撤退」的不得不然。撤離半徑一次又一次加大，撤離人數一次又一次加多。

相對而言，二○○九年莫拉克八八水災，暴雨觸動走山以致小林村滅村，也是一次「複合式災難」。事後檢討起來，認為縣政府未下令撤離是造成四百四十三人死難的原因；詎料，當時有位縣長卻說，要在短時間撤離幾萬人，簡直是「很荒謬」。然而，正確的思考應當是，如果沒有防災的萬全把握，坐視豪雨而不撤離，反而才是「很荒謬」。縣政府只因平日根本沒有大撤離的備案，竟將應有的撤離動作指為荒謬，這豈不是倒果為因？

後續的救災工作也須有預先的對策。可以預見將發生的是缺水、缺油、缺糧、缺電……，日本東北地區此刻入夜攝氏零下的低溫，沒糧沒暖氣，皆可能是致命威脅。這波災難還在擴散，災區所在是半導體、汽車產業重鎮，遭到重創後，生產失序、物料零組件斷貨勢必擴大衝擊，失業潮的爆發幾難避免。這場「複合式災難」，在同一時點上災難重疊發生，在延續的時間上災難又相繼發生；這真是對日本朝野的重大考驗。

馬總統舉行國安層級的防災應變研討會，假想目標「萬一是台灣」，我們能應付嗎？這次強震的威力是九二一集集大震的四百倍，九二一的傷痛及重建就讓台灣社會花上不止十年，倘若規模九的強震「萬一在台灣」，我們有無應對的能力？

「複合式防災」首應建立一種應對的態度，以及一套基礎的應變機制，強化硬體以對抗災難當然重要，卻相較其實是次要的。例如，可能碰上一千年洪水頻率的暴雨，我們當然不可能把都市排水、河川防洪都升高到相應的規格，因為這恐怕得花上不止以千億計的經費，何況是即使砸下鉅資也未必能奏效。因而，態度上應該是避災，而不是抗災，順天而不逆天。

以土石流成災為例，離開谷口、崖麓線的高危險地區，遠比築高牆、深打地錨管用得多。關鍵的工作是國土規劃、國土安全地圖的繪製，徹底瞭解每一塊國土的災害屬性，可以利用的才利用，應該避的絕不貪圖短利去用；這對處在低緯、環赤道圈、高氣候風險的台灣，必須有此覺醒。

台灣面對天災，賀伯、九二一、納莉、莫拉克……，因應對策一直都是且戰且走，挨過一年算一年，沒有深刻思考過累積些防災經驗讓下次災難傷害減低，每次災難來臨都手忙腳亂，只能被動因應，目標僅是消極減少傷害程度，而未思考從源頭減災。「複合式災難」與「極端氣候」等概念，應該激發「複合式防災」的思考，從全面及長期，從政策到演練，去重建一套防災的思維與方案。

這幾天頻繁出現在媒體上的一個畫面，可供參考：日本小娃兒到公共場所頭上都戴了保護頭罩，多年來日本幼兒園教室課桌的基本配備，就有放置保護頭罩的設計；地震一發生，小娃兒都熟練地戴上頭罩，自保動作可讓傷害降到最低。見微知著，足可深思。