Reading the Tsai/Su Script

Reading the Tsai/Su Script
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
March 21, 2011

In March last year, Su Tseng-chang announced his candidacy for Mayor of Taipei. This forced Tsai Ing-wen, in accordance with her own Two Cities script, to run for Mayor of Xinbei City. Today Tsai Ing-wen has seized the inititative and announced her candidacy for president in 2012. This has forced Su Tseng-chang to play by her script.

Rumor has it Tsai Ing-wen's script called for "the winner to run for president, and the loser to run for the legislature." Tsai and Su would compete in the primaries. Whoever lost would be put at the top of the party roster for legislator without portfolio. He or she would then head up the party's bid for an absolute majority in the legislature. When the news broke, Tsai Ing-wen admitted that some aspects of this proposal had been floated before, but that they were absolutely not Tsai's idea. The suggestion that it was however, is not far-fetched.

The DPP leadership abruptly said it "had no particular objection" to consolidating the presidential and legislative elections, confirming that such a script existed. Consider the matter from Tsai Ing-wen's perspective. The winner of the party primaries runs for president. The loser runs for the legislature. This allows her to avoid being made one half of either a Tsai/Su ticket or a Su/Tsai ticket. If Tsai wins the primaries, she can refuse to be part of a Tsai/Su ticket. On the other hand, If Su wins, Tsai can refuse to be part of a Su/Tsai ticket. Furthermore, if the presidential and legislative elections are merged, a Tsai/Su ticket or Su/Tsai ticket would force the two to run together, on the same ticket. Such a coordinated attack would result in a multiplier effect. But suppose the legislative elections are held first, and the presidential election is held later? The result of coopetition between Tsai and Su or Su and Tsai could be unpredictable. The Tsai Ing-wen camp probably believes it can win the primary. That is why it cooked up this particular script; In other words, it wanted to force Su Tseng-chang to run for the legislature. This would block the straightjacket of a Tsai/Su ticket. If the presidential election and legislative elections are merged, Su Tseng-chang will be unable to make trouble. He will be forced to throw his support behind Tsai Ing-wen. Furthermore, suppose the presidential election and legislative elections are held separately? Suppose , the results of the legislative elections are not as favorable as the DPP hoped for? This could undermine the momentum of the DPP's presidential campaign. But if the presidential election and the legislative elections are held on the same day, and the results announced on the same day, then this will not be a concern. Therefore "the winner runs for president, and the loser runs for the legislature" and merging the presidential election with the legislative elections has now become the DPP's strategy..

What Su Tseng-chang finds hardest to swallow, is reports that DPP leaders believe President Ma Ying-jeou may be reelected. Such reports say that if Tsai Ing-wen feels confident of victory during the current presidential election, the DPP will nominate her. Conversely, if Tsai Ing-wen does not feel confident, the party will nominate Su Tseng-chang. This would avoid undermining Tsai Ing-wen's momentum, and maximize her chances of winning in the 2016 election. Confronted by such sentiments within the party, Su Tseng-chang must be deeply disgruntled.

Tsai and Su differ primarily in their age. Tsai can run in 2012. She can also run in 2016. But 2012 will probably be Su Tseng-chang's last hurrah. Tsai Ing-wen is competing with Su Tseng-chang in the presidential primaries. Not only that, if she loses the party primaries, she will refuse to be part of a Su/Tsai ticket. This has left Su Tseng-chang no room to maneuver. The party sees Tsai Ing-wen as the frontrunner. It has tilted in her direction. Tsai Ing-wen is also far more popular than Su Tseng-chang. Now consider the matter from Su Tseng-chang's perspective, Tsai Ing-wen is a Johnny Come Lately to the DPP. She has offered little besides empty rhetoric, She has failed to set forth any "outside the box" political concepts or policy proposals. Yet based on this, she is calling for a "new generation" to elbow aside the "old generation." How must Su Tseng-chang feel about that?

Tsai Ing-wen said she is not political enough. She does not know how to make political calculations. But she seized the initiative, and declared her candidacy. She promoted the idea that "the winner should run for president, the loser should run for the legislature." She also promoted the idea that the DPP "has no particular objection to merging the presidential and legislative elections." She precisely calculated the impact of Tsai/Su coopetition. She didn't miss a trick. Tsai Ing-wen clearly does know how to make political calculations. Su Tseng-chang is hoping for a Su/Tsai ticket, or failing that, a Tsai/Su ticket. But Tsai has only one goal, to run for president. She does not want a Su/Tsai ticket. She wants to rid herself of a Tsai/Su ticket. She apparently believes that Tsai can do without Su, but Su cannot do without Tsai.

For Tsai Ing-wen, such political calculations have all been calmly and rationally mapped out. Leave aside Su Tseng-chang's personal interests and preferences. Is not "the winner runs for president, the loser runs for the legislature" the fairest and most synergetic strategy? Moreover, if Tsai wants to run for president, she must rid herself of Su Tseng-chang or Annette Lu. She must also rid herself of the fetters attached to her by the Old Guard within the Green Camp.

We said that Tsai Ing-wen's "three in one goal" includes generational power transfer, waging a presidential campaign, and transforming the party's political platform. Among these, the key is generational change. Su Tseng-chang and Annette Lu were her targets during the party primaries. Furthermore, suppose she is elected and takes office. Suppose she fails to promote Green Camp generational change, and transform the party's political platform. She will find herself walking down the same path as Chen Shui-bian. She will "win the election, but lose her ideals."

蘇貞昌如何看蔡英文的劇本
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.03.21

蘇貞昌去年三月在保安宮宣布參選台北市長，逼蔡英文照著他「雙城奇謀」的劇本參選新北市長；如今，蔡英文率先宣布參選二○一二總統，又回過頭來迫蘇貞昌照著她的劇本演出。

傳說蔡英文方面的劇本是「贏的選總統，輸的拚國會」，亦即：蔡蘇二人在初選落敗者，擔任不分區立委第一名，率黨籍立委候選人拚國會過半。消息傳出後，蔡英文方面說有人曾提此議，卻非蔡英文自己的主張。不過，這不像是空穴來風。

民進黨中央突然表態「不會特別反對」總統、立委合併選舉，可以證實這套劇本確實存在。站在蔡英文方面設想，初選贏的選總統，輸的拚國會，即可跳出「蔡蘇配／蘇蔡配」的框架。初選蔡若贏，即可不要「蔡蘇配」；蘇若贏，蔡亦可拒絕「蘇蔡配」。再者，總統、立委若合併選舉，蔡蘇或蘇蔡二人被合併選舉的大局綁住，應可產生分進合擊的乘數效應；但若先選立委、後選總統，蔡蘇或蘇蔡的競合關係即可能出現難測的變數。何況，蔡英文方面應是估計蔡有可能贏得初選而構想出這一套劇本；也就是說，屆時可把蘇貞昌推到不分區立委，堵住「蔡蘇配」的「膏膏纏」；又以總統立委合併選舉，不讓蘇貞昌有作亂的空間，而不得不為蔡英文抬轎。再者，總統、立委分開選舉，民進黨若選得不如預期，可能影響總統大選的聲勢；總統立委同日選舉，同日揭曉，即不會有此顧慮。所以，「贏的選總統，輸的拚國會」與「總統立委合併選舉」，是兼籌並顧的算計。

最令蘇貞昌吃不消的是，又有消息指出，民進黨中有人估計馬英九總統仍有連任可能，則如果蔡英文此屆總統選舉有勝選的把握，民進黨就推舉她參選；反之，倘若蔡英文無勝選把握，就推舉蘇貞昌，以避免傷害蔡英文，為她保全二○一六的機會。蘇貞昌面對這樣的黨內氛圍，心中必是五味雜陳。

蔡蘇二人的對比關鍵在年齡。蔡可以選二○一二，也可以選二○一六；但二○一二應是蘇的人生最後一戰。蔡英文非但要與蘇貞昌爭總統初選，如今甚至表明若初選落敗也拒絕「蘇蔡配」，這不啻已使蘇貞昌失去轉圜空間。如今，黨內皆將蔡英文視為「西瓜的大邊」，且蔡在民間的聲勢亦有壓倒蘇貞昌的跡象；但是，看在蘇貞昌眼裡，蔡英文畢竟是民進黨的一個「遲到的黨員」，且她除了空泛的詞藻堆砌外，也未能提出什麼「超越」的主張或政見，憑這樣就要召喚「新世代」，推開「舊世代」，此對蘇貞昌而言真是情何以堪？

蔡英文說，她不夠政治，不會算計；但她先聲奪人、宣布參選，並傳出「贏的選總統，輸的拚國會」的劇本，再放出「不特別反對總統立委併選」的聲音，不啻是將「蔡蘇競合」的政治算計已算到毫釐分明、滴水不漏的地步。蔡英文算得很清楚：蘇貞昌希望「蘇蔡配」，至少要「蔡蘇配」；但她只有參選總統一個目標，不要「蘇蔡配」，也要甩掉「蔡蘇配」。她顯然認為，蔡可以不要蘇，蘇不能沒有蔡。

這一切的政治算計，對蔡英文來說，皆是理性而冷靜的擘劃。試問：撇開蘇貞昌個人的利害愛憎而言，「贏的選總統，輸的拚國會」，難道不是最公平且最具綜效的大戰略？何況，蔡英文若想當選總統，不僅要甩掉蘇貞昌或呂秀蓮，也須在執政後甩掉其他綠營老舊勢力的羈絆。

我們曾說，蔡英文面對的「三合一工程」是：世代交替、總統大選、路線轉型。其中，世代交替更是關鍵工程，蘇貞昌、呂秀蓮是她初選中的箭靶；進一步說，她若有朝一日當選而執政，倘不能進一步對綠營「世代交替」，以達成「路線轉型」，她也必將步上陳水扁「贏了選舉，輸了路線」的後塵。