Kuomintang Must Heed Crisis of Governance

Kuomintang Must Heed Crisis of Governance
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
March 7, 2011

As predicted, the KMT lost the legislative by-elections for both cities in southern Taiwan. Worse still, it lost by a wider margin than previously. The KMT has been back in power for less than three years. Yet it has already lost half a dozen major and minor by-elections in a row. In 13 legislative by-elections, it has retained only three seats. By contrast, the DPP has scored a continuous string of victories. It won one less seat than the KMT in the five cities elections. But the total number of votes it received far exceeded the KMT's. No wonder after the by-elections for the two cities in southern Taiwan, DPP Chairman Tsai Ing-wen confidently declared that the DPP would soon return to power.

Over the past two years, the KMT has failed to exploit the power of the incumbency. It has lost a string of major and minor by-elections. It has suffered so many defeats, one could simply change the names on the file folders for its election post-mortems. The KMT Central Standing Committee has dealt with its defeats in a ritualistic, pro forma manner. No one is willing to confront the KMT's problems head on. Either that, or they see the problems but can offer no solutions.

Pan Blue rule in the north, and Pan Green rule in the south, has become a long standing pattern. The KMT clings to its ostrich mentality, assuming that it need only retain power in northern and central Taiwan. The further south it goes, the more it is reluctant to campaign. During the recent fourth legislative district election in Tainan, the KMT was caught unprepared. It nominated legislator without portfolio Chen Shu-hui. Whether she won or lost, she would have remained a legislator. As a result, she lacked the motivation to campaign hard from the very start. During the Kaohsiung fourth legislative district by-election, the KMT nominated Hsu Ching-huang, the son of former DPP legislator Hsu Chi-min. One. It disregarded the fact that the Hsu family was embroiled in local controversy. Two. It disregarded the fact that Hsu Ching-huang was defeated during his previous legislative bid. Three. It disregarded public consternation over the nomination. Instead, it wallowed in feelgood sentiment. "We can win in Kaohsiung!" it told itself. Instead, it lost by a whopping 30,000 votes. Who in the KMT had the courage to suggest that such a nomination was a mistake?

The candidate might be Chen Shu-hui, or it might be Hsu Ching-huang. But the real problem is that the KMT has failed to campaign vigorously in the south. It has failed o cultivate talented candidates willing to make sacrifices. Chen Shu-hui was able to serve as a legislator without portfolio, because she was the wife of former legislator Lin Nan-sheng. Lin Nan-sheng habitually relied upon support from local factions and military dependents. His terms in office were not controversial within the party. The Chen administration ruled for eight years. Twice during that time, Lin Nan-sheng defected, voting with the DPP against the KMT. During the seventh legislative elections the party made room for Wang Yu-ting. As a result Kao Po-shi waltzed into office. In order to clear the way for the nomination of Chen Shu-hui as legislator without portfolio, Chen did not fill the position until legislator without portfolio Lee Chi-chu assumed the vice chairmanship of the FSC. Wang and Kao lost their bids for reelection. They were given political appointments. Following the five cities elections, the KMT Secretary-General refused to run for elective office, and resigned before the cabinet reshuffle.

The reality was brutal. The legislative by-elections in the two cities in southern Taiwan may have been lost before they even began. But why? The reason is simple. Legislator without portfolio Chen Shu-hui failed to campaign vigorously at the local level. After their political appointments, Wang and Kao failed to make full use of their resources. The central government was silent. The local government was invisible. How could they even hope to win? This was true in Tainan. This was true in Kaohsiung as well. By contrast, during the curent election Lin Dai-hua, the DPP candidate for the legislature, won handily, At the time, she was no different than Wang Yu-ting and Kao Shi-po. All were victims of surprise defeats during their bid for reelection. She served briefly as Youth Commission chairman prior to the change in ruling parties. She was defeated. She then made a determined but unsuccessful bid for Kaohsiung County Chief. If not for the merger between Kaohsiung City and Kaohsiung County, she would have been the DPP's nominee for Kaohsiung County Chief.

Lin Dai-hua is not yet 40. Hsu Tien-tsai is approximately 60. The age gap between the two DPP elected officials is 20 years. The generation gap is two to three generations. But when it comes to campaign ability, they differ very little. They have never stopped preparing to assume power, They are ready to do battle at any time. This unique characteristic of DPP officials, makes it far easier for them to be "air dropped" into an election than the KMT. Once they are air dropped, they make long term plans. They fight until they win.

It is rumored that King Pu-chung, who resigned as KMT Secretary-General, has been busy. He is in southern Taiwan "head hunting." But head hunting is useless unless one has the DPP's determination to fight until one wins. Also, if those recruited become members of the presidential campaign, what good will that do the KMT? In 2012, it is not enough merely to re-elect Ma Ying-jeou president. It is even more important to ensure a KMT majority in the legislature.

During the seventh legislative elections, the KMT used the Chen family corruption scandals to score a stunning victory. Ma YIng-jeou enjoyed enormous momentum. The KMT won two-thirds of the seats in the legislature. Unfortunately, the legislature failed to bring with it a new political climate. The cabinet was restructured twice. It was subjected to repeated fine-tuning. None of which elevated its political reputation. The year end legislative elections and future by elections are bound to be affected. The KMT has many incumbents. Arriving at compromises between them will not be easy. DPP legislators have considerable growth potential, Rival factions and party princes may have difficult to overcome grievances during the presidential election. But these grievances will be easy to overcome during the legislative elections.

Suppose the DPP or a DPP led coalition wins a majority in the legislature? Suppose President Ma Ying-jeou summons up the courage and makes some bold moves? What can he do if the DPP commands an overwhelming majority in the legislature? By then, the DPP may have amended the ROC Constitution. As its first experiment, it may turn it into a dual leadership system. The powers of the president would be greatly reduced. This would mark the beginning of a figurehead presidency. Tsai Ing-wen has declared that the DPP will use the legislative by-elections to return to power. Is the KMT still unaware that it is undergoing a crisis in goverance?

國民黨該警覺執政危機了
2011-03-07 中國時報

一如預期，南二都兩個選區立委補選，國民黨又敗了，而且票數懸殊。國民黨重新執政三年不到時間中，大小補選戰役連續創造的敗績已經一個手掌數不完，十三席立委補選，只站穩三席。相反的，民進黨一路過關斬將，即使五都選舉席次較國民黨少一席，得票數卻遠遠領先國民黨，難怪南二都補選後，民進黨主席蔡英文可以沉著堅定宣告：民進黨即將重返執政！

過去兩年多來，國民黨未能掌握執政優勢，大小選舉節節敗退，敗選檢討多到從檔案夾裡抽出換選舉名稱即可適用，中常會行禮如儀提出後束之高閣，沒有人正視國民黨問題之所在，或者看到問題卻依舊無力挽救。

北藍南綠格局既成，國民黨鴕鳥地相信靠著中北藍區維持政權足矣，愈往南，黨人愈怯戰，這次台南第四選區立委補選，國民黨臨陣磨槍，提名不分區立委陳淑慧，不論當選與否都還是立委，戰鬥意志先矮人一截；高雄第四選區立委補選則提名前民進黨立委徐志明之子徐慶煌，一無視徐氏家族在地方的爭議，二無視徐慶煌上次立委選舉大敗的事實，三無視民意聽聞如此提名時的錯愕，還自我感覺良好地認為，「高雄有得拚！」拚出來結果大輸三萬票，國民黨誰有膽子抓出當初主張這個錯誤提名的人？

然而，不論是陳淑慧或徐慶煌，其實都只是國民黨疏於經營南部、培養人才的犧牲者。陳淑慧能出任不分區，因為她是前立委林南生之妻，林南生過去靠的是派系和眷村票，在黨內不是沒有爭議，至少扁政府執政八年，林南生就有兩次立法院行使同意權的跑票紀錄，第七屆立委選舉黨內為了讓王昱婷、高思博順利參選，以提名陳淑慧為不分區做疏通，陳一直到不分區立委李紀珠出任金管會副主委才遞補就位。至於王、高兩人卻在連任選舉中全遭挫敗，轉任政務官的他們，在五都選後遭黨祕書長點名拒戰，在內閣改組前後去職。

更殘酷而現實地看待南二都立委補選，就算王、高兩人點頭參選，或許依舊改變不了敗選的結果，何以致此？原因很簡單，遞補不分區的陳淑慧在地方經營顯然不夠，王、高轉換跑道擔任政務官之後，也未善用資源，在中央不發聲，在地方看不到身影，怎麼選？台南如此，高雄就更不必提了。相形之下，這次當選立委的民進黨候選人林岱樺，贏得一點都不僥倖，當年，她和王昱婷、高思博一樣，都意外連任失敗，從而擔任過政黨再輪替前一小段時間的青輔會主委，才落選就鬥志昂揚準備參選高雄縣長，若非高雄縣市合併，她肯定是民進黨高雄縣長提名人選。

林岱樺今年四十不到，許添財差不多六十，民進黨兩位當選人年紀落差廿歲，二到三個世代，但面對選舉的戰鬥力卻毫無二致，他們沒有一刻停下腳步和準備，任何時刻就能提槍上陣，民進黨人特殊的選舉性格，讓他們在尋覓「空降人才」都比國民黨簡單得多，甚且一旦空降，就要做長期抗戰的打算，直到贏得戰役的那一天。

據說，辭卸國民黨祕書長的金溥聰號稱沒閒著，正在南部「獵人頭」。然而，人頭若無民進黨打到勝選才干休的意志力，獵來也無用；此外，人頭若都獵進「總統競選辦公室」，於國民黨執政何干？二○一二年，不只是馬英九總統能否連任，更重要的是，國民黨還能在國會過半嗎？

第七屆立委選舉，國民黨挾扁家弊案全面爆發，馬英九氣勢如虹之賜，大贏三分之二席次；遺憾的是，如此國會生態並未展現什麼新氣象，行政團隊兩次改組，多次微調，也沒拉抬出足夠的執政聲望，這對年底或來年立委改選勢必造成衝擊。加以國民黨現任者眾，協調必然不易，民進黨立委可成長空間卻極大，派系和天王盡管在總統大選心結難解，在立委選舉這塊卻很容易眾志成城。

果若民進黨或加上盟友可過半，即使馬英九總統可連任，他敢像當年的扁，大玩權謀，視國會破碎多數於無物嗎？屆時，或許將是中華民國憲法增修條文雙首長制第一次實驗的時機，這也表示是總統權力大幅削弱、虛位的開始，當蔡英文宣示以立委改選重返執政，國民黨還看不到自己嚴重的執政危機嗎？