Official Chest-thumping No Solution for Radiation Scare

Official Chest-thumping No Solution for Radiation Scare
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
March 17, 2011

Summary: The Japanese government has announced that the level of radiation in the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Number One is too high. Therefore all plant personnel will be evacuated. This is tantamount to a declaration that the plant is being abandoned. This means that the disaster may worsen. The amount of radioactive material released into the atmosphere has reportedly increased. When it comes to fighting enemies, we must anticipate the worst, and prepare for the worst. This must be our basic attitude, When it comes to radioactive materials, the public naturally wants to believe the government's assurances that "Everything is fine!" But the government cannot merely thump its chest. If it does, it may soon find its back to the wall.

Full Text below:

The Japanese government has announced that the level of radiation in the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Number One is too high. Therefore all plant personnel will be evacuated. This is tantamount to a declaration that the plant is being abandoned. This means that the disaster may worsen. The amount of radioactive material released into the atmosphere has reportedly increased.

When the earthquake first occurred, officials in charge assured the public more than once that radioactive contaminants would not leak from the power plant. The power plant experienced a series of hydrogen gas explosions. But Japanese officials insisted that "hydrogen gas explosions are not nuclear explosions," therefore were no danger to public health. Only when the situation deteriorated, did they admit that radioactive materials had leaked. Only then did they enlarge the evacuation zone. The U.S. aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan withdrew to a position off the coast of Fukushima, highlighting the severity of the radiation leakage. Rescue helicopters flew through clouds to reach the affected areas. Upon their return, crew members and helicopter fuselages revealed clear signs of radiation exposure. The radiation leaks cannot be minimized.

Nuclear energy officials on Taiwan have remained tight-lipped about whether radioactive fallout would reach Taiwan. All they have been willing to say is that they probably will not, that the fallout will be diluted, that winds over Japan are currently blowing from the west, and that "They absolutely will not reach Taiwan." In short, they think there is virtually no risk. But the public remains skeptical of such official assurances. They have stopped buying oysters, scallops, Aomori apples, and Fukushima peaches from Miyagi Prefecture. They even have doubts about dairy products, which have yet to feel the impact on the food chain. Ordinary people who would normally visit the night markets on Taiwan, now prefer to avoid the radiation. For them "It is safer to stay at home." As a result, business has fallen roughly thirty percent.

This is not because the public entertains stereotypes about officials who thump their chests and offer loud assurances. It is because the hazards of radiation are cumulative, and increase geometrically. They accumulate in the body. They harm not just the current generation. Genetic mutations are passed on to the next generation as well. When confronting disaster, we must anticipate the worst, and prepare for the worst. We cannot simply hope that winds will blow the contaminants out over the Pacific Ocean and dilute the fallout. Such assurances are little more than asking for Buddha's blessing.

In April of last year the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland erupted. Volcanic ash reached Asia and the Americas. That was because the volcanic ash reached the stratosphere. It was caught by jet streams and carried along. The smoke and dust discharged from Fukushima failed to reach such altitudes. Tropospheric transport is unstable. Officials are attempting to defuse public panic. They claim that "Currently the winds are from the west. The U.S. may need to be careful. But Taiwan is all right!" Such rhetoric reveals a lack of understanding. Wind direction is subject to abrupt changes in atmospheric pressure and altitude. Currently the winds over Japan's earthquake-stricken areas are no longer from the west.

The government is hoping for favorable winds. It has set up monitors at the three nuclear power plants on Taiwan, and at 50 other locations. It intends to monitor radiation doses and to post the results on the Internet, It will provide the public with real-time information. This is a progressive measure. It will enable the public to immediately grasp the situation regarding radiation pollution. We approve. But such measures are reactive. The choice of monitoring locations was subjective. They should have been studied in greater depth. Radioactive materials do not remain in the air. With rain, they enter the soil, water, plants, and the food chain. People eating fruits and vegetables, dairy products, meat, and fish may ingest radioactive materials. This is not something monitoring radiation doses in the atmosphere can guard against. Besides, suppose the radiation detected reaches dangerous levels? What are we suppose to do then? Besides evading and covering up problems, what has the government done?

People want to believe the government's assurances that "Everything is fine!" But they must first witness the government take concrete actions. Consider the 1986 Japanese response to the release of radioactive material during the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. On April 26 the Chernobyl nuclear disaster occurred. First, the Japanese government confirmed that the disaster was serious, Then it established, for the very first time, a Disaster Prevention and Countermeasures Headquarters, directly answerable to the Prime Minister. The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, the Ministry of Agriculture, universities, research institutions, scientific research institutions, the military, and NGOs were all mobilized. All of Japan, including land, sea, air, water, soil, and living organisms, were categorized and thoroughly monitored.

Monitoring continued for one month. It confirmed traces of radioactive contamination. Nuclear energy officials were joined by experts in public health, nuclear medicine, and environmental medicine. All participated in the survey, signed the investigation report, and adjourned the task force. Concrete and responsible action enabled the Japanese to believe in the government's findings.

International nuclear authorities have classified the Fukushima nuclear disaster as a Level Six "Serious Accident," second only to Chernobyl. This implies a serious leak of radioactive materials. This means that contingency plans must be initiated. The United Nations IAEA is planning an emergency meeting next week. It will discuss measures to combat the continuous increase of radioactive materials. It has adopted a cautious attitude regarding Japan's nuclear disaster. This contrasts sharply with our own government's smugly confident attitude. Premier Wu Den-yih put it well when he said we must not be overconfident in our predictions.

When it comes to fighting enemies, we must anticipate the worst, and prepare for the worst. This must be our basic attitude, When it comes to radioactive materials, the public naturally wants to believe the government's assurances that "Everything is fine!" But the government cannot merely thump its chest. If it does, it may soon find its back to the wall.

輻射恐慌不能只靠官員拍胸脯
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.03.17

日本政府宣布，由於福島第一核電廠的輻射量過高，一度將電廠人員全數撤離，形同宣告全面棄守。此一情勢顯示，災變可能更趨惡化，輻射塵外洩飄散的危機亦告升高。

震災發生之初，日相菅直人不止一次保證核電廠沒有輻射外洩之虞；即便電廠隨即接連氫爆，日本官員還是說「氫爆不是核爆」，不會危及民眾健康；直到事態惡化才承認確已輻射外洩，緊急擴大撤離範圍。美國航母雷根號撤離福島外海的行動更凸顯輻射外洩的嚴重性，僅是前往災區救援的直升機穿過雲層，回航後即在人員與機身都測出明顯輻射劑量，顯示輻射外洩不容輕忽。

我國主管原能的官員對輻射塵會否飄來台灣一直非常「鐵齒」，只是說應該不會、空氣會稀釋、現在日本吹西風、「根本就不會飄到台灣」云云，總之，幾乎不認為有任何風險存在。民眾對官員的說法將信將疑，自主反應則是不買災區宮城縣進口的生蠔、扇貝，青森的蘋果、福島桃子，連還沒循食物鏈反應到的乳製品也有疑慮；而台灣庶民常逛的夜市，也因為避輻射「待在家裡很安全」的宣導，生意急落了好幾成。

不是對官員的拍胸脯保證有「不相信」的成見，而是因輻射危害會累積加乘，不僅會在體內累積，且傷害不只這一代，而會因基因突變遺傳給下一代。因此，從「料災從寬／防災從嚴」的角度來看，若是光寄望災區的風往太平洋吹、空氣稀釋，這樣的保證，程度上不會超過祈求菩薩保佑。

沒錯，去年四月冰島艾雅法拉火山爆發，火山灰吹到亞洲、美洲，那是因為火山灰噴發已經到了平流層的高度，才能搭上噴射氣流穩定輸送，而福島爆炸噴發煙塵的高度卻極有限，對流層並沒有穩定輸送的氣流條件。但官員試圖化解民眾恐慌的說詞只是：「現在吹西風，美國可能得小心了，台灣沒事啦！」這種說詞可能是不理解風向會因大氣的壓力場、高度而有變化，日本災區目前的風向也不再是西風。

除了寄望風向，政府另個動作是在三個核電廠與五十個點設置監測儀，將監測到的輻射劑量公布在網站上，告訴民眾即時資訊。這是進階的作法，可以即時瞭解輻射汙染資訊，值得肯定，但畢竟仍是被動的、主觀選擇地點的讀取汙染數據，必須要再進一步做現地調查。輻射物質不僅在空中，會隨降水落入土壤、水體、植株、進入食物鏈循環……，民眾攝食蔬果、乳品、肉、魚都可能讓輻射汙染進入人體，這絕非僅監測空氣中的輻射劑量即足以防範。更何況，若是偵測到輻射劑量達危險值，我們該怎麼應對？除了掩蔽，還有積極的動作嗎？

民眾願意相信政府「安啦！」的保證，前提是必須看到政府的具體作為。一九八六年日本因應車諾比核災輻射汙染的具體作法可供參考。當年四月二十六日車諾比爆發核災，確認嚴重性後，日本在第一時間組成直屬總理的防災對策本部，包括原子動力省、通產省、農部、大學、科研單位、自衛隊、ＮＧＯ……幾乎全面動員，把日本全境陸域、海域、空域、水體、土壤、生物……劃分責任區徹底監測。

持續一個月的監測，確認輻射汙染微量，除了核能官員，還由包括公衛、核子醫學、環境醫學等共同參與調查的學者共同簽署調查報告後，結束任務編組。這一具體、負責的動作，讓日本民眾相信政府的調查結果。

日本福島核災，國際核能界已認定危險應升高到僅次於車諾比災變的第六級「嚴重成災事故」的程度，意思是輻射物質嚴重外洩，應全面啟動應變計畫；聯合國原能總署也計畫下周緊急集會，商討持續升高的輻射汙染對策，對日本核災戒慎恐懼的態度，與我國官員的自信滿滿成強烈對比。還是吳敦義院長說得好：這時候，話不能說得太滿。

「料敵從寬、禦敵從嚴」是防災基本態度，對可能的輻射汙染，民眾當然希望政府「安啦！」說的是實話，但若只是靠拍胸脯而已，可能屆時連「禦敵」的空間都流失殆盡。