Ma Ying-jeou Must Consider Public Sentiment a Warning

Ma Ying-jeou Must Consider Public Sentiment a Warning
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 29, 2011

Tsai Ing-wen has won the DPP presidential primaries, and will represent the DPP in the 2012 presidential race. On the same day, President Ma Ying-jeou received the KMT's blessing in his quest for a second term. President Ma trailed Tsai Ing-wen in polls commissioned by the DPP. He even found himself in a draw or trailing slightly in polls conducted by the media. These results should have put President Ma and the Blue Camp on high alert.

The presidential election is still nine months away. What will happen to public opinion remains difficult to foresee. President Ma Ying-jeou enjoys the advantage of the incumbency. He has a variety of administrative resources at his disposal. During his three years in office, he has liberated the ROC from the previous two administrations' Closed Door Policy. The economy has gradually recovered. So why does the public think less of him than it does of the opposition party leader, who is guilty of endless flip-flopping? Is this not a paradox?

According to the averaged result of five primary polls commissioned by the DPP, Ma Ying-jeou trails Tsai Ing-wen by 7.5 percentage points, and Su Tseng-chang by 7.3 percentage points. The gap is enormous. The DPP changed its usual tactic of "waiting by the phone" and the "institutional effect" created by poll takers. But the fact that Ma Ying-jeou trailed by Su Tseng-chang and Tsai Ing-wen by so much, is indeed worth pondering. According to a poll conducted by this newspaper, 36% of all respondents supported Ma Ying-jeou, and 37% of all respondents supported Tsai Ing-wen. The difference of one percentage point was within the sampling error. This means the two candidates are currently evenly matched. This means Ma Ying-jeou enjoys no advantage at all.

This result was a huge surprise for the Blue Camp. Not long ago, the Central Election Commission announced that the presidential election would be combined with the legislative primaries. The Blue Camp hoped to hitch a ride on Ma Ying-jeou's coat tails. But now Ma Ying-jeou enjoys no advantage at all. He may even be at a disadvantage. In which case his "coat tails" could become an albatross. Candidates could end up throwing good money after bad. The Green Camp expressed no objection to the two elections being combined. They already realized this could be the case. They decided to gamble and to try to win both elections. Both the ruling and opposition parties are betting the farm.

The KMT seems content with itself. Ma Ying-jeou is behind in the polls. Alarm bells should be ringing. Consider this newspaper's poll results. The key is President Ma's governing style. Ma Ying-jeou trailed Tsai Ing-wen on matters of "policy resolve." Ma Ying-jeou's score was 21%. Tsai Ing-wen's was 36%. On the surface, for an opposition party not in power to score higher on policy resolve, may seem contradictory. But Tsai Ing-wen smoothed over factional troubles within the DPP. She led the party to a string of victories. She led the party out from under the shadow of Chen Shui-bian's corruption. She won over the elderly, the middle-aged, and youth. This constituted an impressive feat of leadership. By contrast, Ma Ying-jeou remains a "by the book" person, to a fault. He often becomes fixated on trivialities. When recruiting talent, he lacks audacity. He often finds himself in no-win, "damned if you do and damned if you don't" situations. All these convince people that he is an irresolute and indecisive chief executive. This is a problem he must realize and ponder.

Current polls provide only a rough impression of public sentiment. Voting will take place in nine months. By then voters may have reconsidered the pros and cons of each candidate, and arrived at different conclusions. The two candidates still have a long battle ahead of them. Ma Ying-jeou has won considerable public approval for boosting the island's economy, and for his handling of cross-Strait affairs. Clear political accomplishments such as these are something Tsai Ing-wen cannot match. More importantly, the DPP espouses radical ideology and flip-flops on cross-Strait policy. It incites communal group hatred and refuses to engage in honest soul-searching. If the DPP fails to address these matters, they will become stumbling blocks for Tsai Ing-wen on her way to the presidency. Which of the two candidates will emerge victorious? That may be decided by issues larger than the two candidates' personal traits.

As a leader, Ma Ying-jeou has a better sense of balance and a greater sense of responsibility. But he and his team are too rigid and too indecisive. They waffle constantly, They lack "true grit." In particular, Ma repeatedly panders to the opposition, while ignoring his own Blue Camp and centrist voters. This has led to an erosion of support from his core constituency. The polls have revealed this chink in his armor. Tsai Ing-wen's cool demeanor meanwhile, has changed the DPP's violent nature. She has helped normalize party politics. But just exactly who has a parasitical attachment to whom? This remains a worrying question. Is the change in the DPP's character a qualitative change, or merely an illusion? Will Tsai Ing-wen turn out to be nothing more than an "accidental tourist?"

A random poll, after all, is not an election. Before candidates they can persuade voters to cast their ballots, they must undergo more stringent tests. President Ma must confront his loss of core support. The public has repeatedly pointed out a plethora of problems. He must no longer dismiss them lightly. Leave aside other matters, and consider his choice of running mate. The DPP's more open policy has given many aspirants hope. Ma Ying-jeou, on the other hand, must choose either Siew or Wu, He can offer nothing new. Once again, he may find himself paling in comparison to Tsai Ing-wen.

馬英九應深以民意為警惕
【聯合報╱社論】
2011.04.29 01:55 am

蔡英文初選勝出代表民進黨角逐2012總統大選，同一天，馬英九總統則獲國民黨推舉角逐連任。值得注意的是，馬總統不僅在民進黨的初選民調中落後蔡英文，在媒體隨後所做的民調中也都陷於膠著或劣勢。此一現象，值得馬總統及藍軍陣營高度警惕。

距離大選還有約九個月，這期間民意將發生什麼變化，仍難逆料。但馬英九總統居執政之優勢地位，集各種行政資源於一身，三年施展打開了台灣的鎖國局面，經濟逐漸恢復起色；在這種情況下，民意對他的評價竟還不如立場反覆的在野黨領袖，豈非弔詭之至？

根據民進黨五家初選民調的平均值，馬英九落後蔡英文七點五個百分點，落後蘇貞昌七點三個百分點。這樣大的差距，或許可說是民進黨發動「在家等電話」改變了常態分佈，及調查者的「機構效應」所致，但馬英九對蘇、蔡二人形成等差落後，確值得玩味。而根據本報隨後所做的「雙英對決」民調，馬英九仍以百分之卅六的支持度，落後蔡英文的百分之卅七。一個百分點之差，其實在抽樣誤差範圍之內，但這不啻說明兩人目前不分軒輊，馬英九毫無優勢可言。

這種態勢，恐怕大出藍軍意料之外。前不久，中選會宣布將總統大選與立委初選合併舉行，對藍營而言，或許寄望可藉馬英九的優勢，來護航藍軍立委，帶動選情。而今，如果馬英九不僅沒有優勢，甚至處於劣勢，那麼「帶動」變成「帶衰」，恐怕將賠了夫人又折兵。綠營不反對兩項選舉合併，其實也正看準這點，打算孤注一擲，力拚雙贏。朝野雙方都在賭這一盤。

當國民黨猶在自我感覺良好，馬英九民調的落後，實是一大警訊；從本報民調看，馬總統的施政風格恐是關鍵因素。馬英九落後蔡英文最多的項目在「施政魄力」，馬英九僅獲百分之廿一的支持，蔡英文卻得到百分之卅六的肯定。表面上看，不掌權的在野黨反而更有施政魄力，似乎頗為矛盾；但蔡英文能整合派系紛擾的民進黨，帶領幾次選舉連勝，走出陳水扁貪腐的陰影，讓一幫老中青心悅誠服，這或者是讓民眾印象深刻的領導能力。相對的，馬英九過度謹守個人界限，在施政上有時流於瑣碎，用人缺乏大開大闔氣魄，甚至時而陷於父子騎驢的困境，在在都讓一般民眾覺得他身為元首的剛毅果決不足，這是他必須警覺及反省的問題。

此刻民調反映的，畢竟只是現下民眾的概略印象；九個月後投票，選民可能對兩人執政的利弊進行深刻判斷再作出抉擇，兩人還有很長的戰役要打。例如，馬英九在「提振國內經濟」及「兩岸關係處理」上，獲得更多民眾肯定；如此直接的政績，就不是一味迴避的蔡英文所能企及。更重要的是，民進黨意識形態及兩岸政策的反覆不定，以及操弄族群仇恨和缺乏反省能力的問題，若不能釐清，也勢必成為蔡英文前進總統之路的絆腳石。兩人最後的勝負，恐得在這些個人特質之外的大議題上進行決戰。

作為領導人，馬英九有較佳的平衡感和責任感，但他和他的團隊過於墨守成規，瞻前顧後，反覆搖擺，少了一點「英氣」。尤其，他一再為少數意見掣肘，卻對藍營及中間選民缺乏回應，這使他不斷流失基本盤，民調暴露的正是這處要害。而蔡英文以其冷靜和異質，改變了民進黨的粗暴性格，有利政黨政治的正常化；但這種不知誰寄生於誰的共存關係，也讓人擔憂：民進黨的變化究竟真是質變或者只是假象，蔡英文會不會只是一個偶然的過客？

民調抽樣終歸不是選舉，要召喚選民投下神聖的一票，得歷經更嚴苛的民意檢驗。無論如何，馬總統須正視自己民氣流失的現象，許多輿論反覆指出的問題，慎勿再輕率以對。別的不說，光是挑選副總統搭檔一事，民進黨的開放性就讓人更有期待；而馬英九若仍是非蕭即吳，不僅了無新意，恐會讓人再一次覺得與蔡英文相形失色。