Needed: Alternatives to the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant

Needed: Alternatives to the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 8, 2011

An anti-Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant banquet has once again stirred up economic and environmental controversy. The Changhua Medical Association and related groups recently held an "All People's Just Say No to Kuo Kuang Petrochemical, Ten Thousand Man Health Promotion Banquet" in Fangyuan. DPP presidential contenders Su Tseng-chang and Tsai Ing-wen made personal appearances, as did President Ma Ying-jeou, Tsai Ing-wen and Su Cheng Tsang seldom appear in the same venue as potential rival President Ma Ying-jeou. Tsai Ing-wen and Su Tseng-chang tested each others' mettle. Tsai and Su were both applauded for signing a memorandum of understanding. President Ma on the other hand, refused to play along. The next day President Ma traveled south for the second time, and paid a visit the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant wetlands building site.

During these anti-Kuo Kuang ideological debates, Tsai Ing-wen suggested moving the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant to the Middle East. Su Tseng-chang stressed that when the ruling DPP first promoted the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant project, the site was in Yunlin, and that the DPP government never pulled its punches. The EIA failed to pass. Nevertheless he refrained from exerting any pressure. Now however, the current administration wants to build it within a large city. He feels this must not be allowed to happen, Valuable wetlands must not be destroyed. Tsai Ing-wen wants to move the petrochemical industry to the Middle East. Former President Lee Teng-hui also entered the fray. He said Tsai Ing-wen did not understand the issues. He said the current administration has provided accurate information to the public and is moving in the right direction.

President Ma Ying-jeou is being relatively cautious. Su Tseng-chang and Tsai Ing-wen have expressed open opposition to the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant project. But when President Ma visited Changhua and discussed the issue with local officials, they informed him that when Su Tseng-chang was premier and Tsai Ing-wen was vice premier, Su and Tsai backed the project, full force. Su and Tsai referred to their flagship project as "a major investment that would provide an abundance of warmth." Su and Tsai have cavalierly performed an about face. They have disowned their own policy with the wave of a hand. But the construction of the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant project is crucial to Taiwan's environmental sustainability and industrial policy. President Ma attended the banquet. His presence represented a willingness on the part of his administration to exercise caution.

The Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant project is crucial to both continued industrial development and environmental sustainabity. The issue has rightly been elevated in importance, to something that the president considers relevant to national security.

Consider the economics. This is a huge investment of over 400 billion NT. Economically, it is absolutely essential. But environmentally, the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant will emit huge quantities of greenhouse gas. It will also consume huge quantities of water. The selected site raises concerns over wetland conservation. Add to this the problem of endangered white dolphins. Groundwater pumping has led to serious problems with ground subsidence. Therefore the fate of the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant will be determined by a combination of old and familiar economic and environmental factors.

In the past, such controversial economic and environmental hot potatoes were passed on to environmental impact assessment officials. Everyone in authority said that as long as it cleared the EIA, it could be built. If it failed to clear the EIA, it could not be built. But this did not resolve disputes. Failure to clarify matters merely generated greater confusion. It discredited the environmental impact assessment process in the minds of the public.

The environmental impact assessment process enables decision-makers to better understand environmental issues and environmental impacts. Policy makers can then weigh the economic, environmental, and other factors to arrive at a decision. Public dissatisfaction can be expressed through the machinery of democracy. Therefore the environmental impact assessment process should allow more alternatives. It should enable scholars and experts to assess the feasibility and merits of alternative solutions. Its conclusions would ultimately be submitted to decision makers, who would make the selection.

Consider the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant. Currently the only site undergoing EIA review is the one in Changhua. Suppose Su Tseng-chang's proposal could be built in other locales? Suppose Tsai Ing-wen's proposal to build the plant in the Middle East was also an option? Every solution has its advantages and disadvantages. For example, if one rules out shipping the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant overseas, one immediately runs into a problem. Shipping the plants overseas leads to domestic unemployment. According to Ministry of Economic Affairs estimates, the Jen-wu and Ta-shi Petrochemical Zones employ nearly 120,000 people. If one includes sock manufacturing, an industry well down the production stream, that number reaches as high as 400,000. But this represents only the economic aspect. If one sets up factories overseas, then Taiwan will have no problem with carbon dioxide emissions, because there will be no domestic pollution.

The EIA of the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant project is not yet complete. But the controversy has already reached the policy level. Therefore the EIA must address the fundamentals. It must consider alternatives to the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant. If the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant is not built, or if it is not built here, what will beconme of Taiwan's petrochemical industry? Do we have any alternatives? How many people will be affected? How can we minimize the damage? If the project is built, or if it is built on another site, will that address the environmental problems? Will that allay public fears? These issues must undergo detailed assessment. In the end, decision makers must exercise their best judgment. If voters choose intelligent leaders, disagreements can be resolved, and we can emerge from our dilemma.

給國光石化多一點替代方案
2011-04-08 中國時報

一場反國光石化的餐會再度炒熱經濟與環保兩難的議題。由彰化醫界聯盟等團體，日前在芳苑舉辦「全民拒絕國光石化，萬人拚健康餐會」，民進黨二○一二總統競選人蘇貞昌跟蔡英文以及總統馬英九都親自出席，難得和二○一二可能的競爭對手，蔡英文，蘇貞昌同場較勁，蔡蘇兩個人都簽下承諾書，受到歡呼鼓掌；馬總統則拒絕配合，隔天馬總統並二度南下造訪國光石化預定點大城濕地。

在這場反國光石化論戰中，蔡英文首先丟出石化產業外移到中東的主張，蘇貞昌強調，民進黨執政時推動國光石化，當時選在雲林，不過沒有放水，環評沒過也沒硬推，現在要在大城設立，他期期以為不可，不能破壞珍貴濕地。針對蔡英文主張石化產業外移至中東，前總統李登輝也加入戰局，指蔡英文不了解這個問題，政府應提出正確資訊與方向，供民眾討論、決定。

馬英九總統態度則相對謹慎。報載，馬總統在南下彰化與地方人士座談時，對蘇貞昌、蔡英文明白主張反國光石化，黨政高層人士表示，國光石化在蘇貞昌、蔡英文任行政院長、副院長時，被列入大溫暖大投資旗艦計畫全力推動，蘇蔡兩人可以輕率地對過去自己的政策說變就變，但國光石化興建與否，攸關台灣環境永續與產業政策，馬總統出席餐會，代表政府願意審慎以對。

無論是從經濟或是環境來看，國光石化都攸關國家未來產業發展與環境的永續發展，因此提高至總統與國家安全戰略高度來思考此一問題，應該是值得肯定的。

就經濟層面而言，一個超過四千億的大投資，從經濟發展角度來看都絕對是必要的。但就環境而言，國光石化排放大量的溫室氣體，又是一個高耗水耗能產業，預定場址又有濕地保育問題，也有白海豚瀕臨滅絕的難題，當地地層又面臨超抽地下水而致地層嚴重地層下陷的問題。因此經濟與環保面熟重的兩難抉擇，就成為國光石化的宿命。

在過去，大家把這樣的經濟與環保爭議兩難課題，丟給了環境影響評估，每一位有權決定的人都說，環評過關就蓋，環評不過就不蓋，其結果，不但沒有化解紛爭，結果反而治絲益棼，也賠上了環評的公信力。

環境評估制度的核心精神，就是要讓決策者透過環評制度，多了解環境問題與影響，然再由決策者在考量經濟環境與社會等相關問題後做出決定，民眾不滿意則可透過民主機制表達出來。如果依此精神，環境影響評估制度也就應該有多一些的替代方案，然後再由學者專家進行每一個替代方案可行性與優劣評估，評估結論最後再交由決策者選擇最終方案。

以國光石化為例，目前在環評審查只有設在彰化大城一案，如果依蘇貞昌的主張可能要增加其它地區的選項，如果依照蔡英文的主張，則應該增加中東設廠的選項，每一選項都有其優劣。例如「國光石化沒有要考慮到海外去」選項，馬上會碰到的是因產業外移後本國勞工失業的問題，據經濟部的估計，如果只算到仁武、大社石化專業區的就業，人數就有十一、十二萬人；如果算到織襪等最下游，則人數可能高達四十萬人。不過這只是經濟方面，如果是海外設廠，就沒有所謂的台灣二氧化碳排放量的問題了，也沒有國內汙染的問題。

國光石化環評程序還沒走完，爭議已拉高到政策層面，因此環評審查應從根本問題切入，多關注國光石化的替代方案：如果國光石化不做，或是如果國光石化不在國內做，台灣石化工業要何去何從？有無替代方案？有多少人受到衝擊？如何把傷害降到最低？如果要做，或是要換地做，環境的問題是否有可能解決？民眾的疑慮是否可以化解？這些問題都經過詳細評估，最後選擇就交給有決策的人去做最佳選擇，選民只要選擇最有智慧的領導人，這樣才能化解爭議，走出困局。