Significance of Construction Halt On Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant

Significance of Construction Halt On Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 23, 2011

For the first time in decades, the central government has ordered construction halted on an investment project worth hundreds of billions of NT dollars, based on environmental protection, community aspirations, and other considerations. As important economic interests conflict with sustainable development, the government has forsaken short term advantage, in favor of sustainable development. We support and applaud President Ma's decisiveness. This decision may well mark a turning point in Taiwan's long-term development, from "development above all" to environmental protection and sustainable development. It represents the rise of a grass-roots movement on Taiwan, and a fresh beginning for social movements. After this, the government must be more careful about the negative impact on Taiwan's economy, industry, and business investment. It must attempt to turn deficits into assets.

Let us recall the decades long tug of war between economics and the environment. Without exception, both KMT and DPP administrations have backed the "development above all" policy one hundred percent. So-called environmental protection and sustainable development have long been mere window-dressing. Environmental groups ridiculed them as "mere lip service." Residents opposed to the Sixth Naphtha Cracking Plant in Ilan, Guanyin, and other locales, forced its relocation. But the central government never wavered. Eventually Yunlin was chosen. The DuPont, Bayer, and other investment projects died stillborn. The reason the central government withdrew its support was not environmental protection considerations. The reason was overwhelming public opposition. Manufacturers changed or canceled their plans. As for the Seventh Naphtha Cracking Plant, the company that developed it found itself in financial distress.

Both DPP and KMT administrations originally supported the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant project. The Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant was a 600 billion NT investment. It would have created economic benefits, and led to direct and indirect job creation. But deficits invariably go hand in hand with assets. No matter how much technology may progress, the petrochemical industry remains a highly polluting, energy-hungry industry. Take the Sixth Naphtha Cracking Plant. The amount of water it consumes, and the amount of greenhouse gases it emits, make it the island's single largest source of pollution.

Kuo Kuang Petrochemical itself estimates the cost to society at around 219 billion NT. Other scholars estimate the cost at one trillion NT or more. Never mind which figure is closer to the facts. A trip to the Sixth Naphtha Cracking Plant in Yunlin will show how difficult it is for a large petrochemical plant to coexist with Mother Nature. For tiny Taiwan, the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant is an intolerable burden. Moreover, Taiwan has certain unique resources and assets. Taiwan ought to abandon its smokestack industry mentality, and move towards more refined, higher value-added, higher density knowledge industries. This is the best way out for Taiwan's economy and industries.

The government understands the economic and Industrial trends, as well as public sentiment. At this crucial moment, it has seized the initiative and decided to withdraw its support for the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant projet. For this it deserves credit. President Ma has announced that Changhua City, where the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant was to be built, will become instead a wetlands park. This decision should be swiftly implemented.

We must also confront and accept the consequences of terminating the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant, and the potential impact on Taiwan's industry and economic system. This involves two aspects. The first is the future of the petrochemical industry. Once the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant project is terminated, the possibility of another another naphtha cracking plant or large-scale petrochemical zone on Taiwan near zilch. The future of the petrochemical industry, of upstream, midstream, and downstream companies, all require proper government planning. If the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant is relocated to the Mainland or Southeast Asia, the government must provide assistance. It must obtain the best investment conditions. It must draw up regulations that enable it to connect and interact with industries on Taiwan. It should, as much as possible, minimize the negative impact of relocation.

The second aspect is the overall state of the economy and industry. This is a six to seven billion NT investment. The medium and long term impact on the economy and industry will surely be negative. But from another perspective, the land, capital, and human resources not invested in the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant, may be transferred to other industries. The government's plans for the six emerging industries, or local industries developing on their own initiative, and eco-tourism, can all take advantage of the opportunity. How will these industries develop and fill the gap left by the departure of the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant? That will require government planning and support.

Note also the growing power of long silent grass roots social groups. The Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant controversy allowed them to regroup. They now show signs of reawakening. The DPP once supported these social groups. During the era of Democratic Progressive Party rule however, they fell silent and scattered with the winds. They collapsed and lost power. But the Kuo Kuang Petrochemical Plant controversy has given them a new lease on life. They no longer march in lockstep with political parties. They go their own way. Political parties may crowd each other out. But they will no longer be able to view these groups as their auxiliaries. Instead, they will have to cope with these new and independent power centers. The ruling and opposition parties must realize this, and how they must interact with them.

國光石化停建的意義與影響
2011-04-23 中國時報

數十年來，這是第一次，面對一個數千億元的大型投資案，中央政府基於環保、社會民情等因素，主動終止喊停；也是第一次，當面臨重大經濟利益與永續發展有衝突時，政府毅然的捨眼前利益、就永續發展。對馬總統的決斷，我們深表支持與肯定；這個決策，更可能是台灣長期「唯發展派」勢力壓倒環保、永續發展派的轉折點，同時也是台灣草根力量、社運團體再出發的契機。而在此之後，對台灣經濟、產業、企業投資的負面影響，政府也必須更加用心擘畫，化此負面影響為正面回饋的結果。

回顧數十年經濟與環保「拔河史」，重大且具指標意義的經濟投資案，政府一直是百分之百「唯發展派」─不論是國民黨或民進黨執政，都毫無例外。所謂環保、永續發展，幾乎只是作為妝點門面用，甚至被環保團體譏為「背書」之用。六輕計畫雖遭宜蘭、觀音等地民眾反對而不斷變換地點，但中央的支持從來未動搖，最後也落腳雲林。杜邦、拜耳等投資案的夭折，原因也不在中央基於環保考量撤回對其支持，而是民間反對力量日盛，廠商決定改變或取消原計畫所致。至於七輕，更是開發廠商發生財務危機以致無疾而終。

這次的國光石化投資案，從民進黨執政到今天國民黨政府，原本也都站在支持立場；其著眼點，當然是一個六千億投資案，可帶動經濟效益，直接與間接創造的就業機會。但有效益就有成本，不論技術進步多少，石化產業終究是一個汙染較高、耗能也高的產業。從六輕例子看，其耗費的用水量、溫室氣體排放量，都是國內少有、單一最大的排放源。

國光石化本身估計其產業的社會成本大約是二一九億元，但其它學者估算則達千億元以上。不論那個數據較接近事實，到雲林六輕走一趟，大概就知道好山好水好空氣，終究是難與大型石化廠共存。國光石化，對地小人稠台灣而言，的確是難以承受的重擔。更何況，以台灣的資源條件與產業結構而言，台灣是該揚棄那種「廠廠相連到天邊、煙囪併肩與天齊」的產業思維，而走向更精緻、附加價值更高、知識密度更高的產業，這才是台灣經濟與產業最佳出路。

因此，對這次政府體察經濟、產業趨勢，及社會民情反應，在關鍵時刻，毅然主動宣布放棄對國光石化的支持，值得肯定；馬總統宣布原規畫國光石化落腳的彰化大城，將朝向溼地公園方向發展，值得加速推動。

不過，我們也必須面對並承受國光案終止後，對台灣產業與經濟可能的負面影響。這可分兩個層面來看。第一是石化產業的未來；國光終止後，代表台灣未來接受另外一個輕油裂解廠、大型石化專區設立的可能性己接近零，石化產業的未來走向、上中下游的關聯廠商之出路，都需要政府妥善規畫因應。國光石化民股如果決定走「異地投資」，不論是前往大陸、或東南亞國家，政府都該給予支持，協助其爭取好的投資條件，並規畫出其與台灣本地產業的聯結互動，儘可能降低其負面影響。

第二個層面是整體的經濟與產業。不能否認的是少了一個六、七千億元的重大投資案，對中長期經濟與產業必然有負面影響；但換個角度看，國內的土地、資金、人力等生產資源，並未投入國光石化案，正可轉作其它產業上。不論是政府規畫中的六大新興產業，或地方自行發展的地方特色、觀光生態產業，都可趁勢而起。但如何引領這些產業發展，填補國光石化不蓋的空缺，就需要政府的規畫與支持。

另外值得觀察的面向是：沈寂已久的地方草根力量與社運團體，在國光石化事件中，讓人看到重新集結、風雲再起的跡象。過去長期與民進黨互為支援的社運團體，在民進黨執政八年中，沈寂風散，力量潰失。但透過這次國光石化案，我們看到其再出發的新生命，而且不再與政黨結合，走出自己的路。未來不論政黨如何輪替，政黨再也不能視這些團體為自己的「外圍團體」般的利用，而須正視與面對這股新生而獨立的力量。朝野政黨皆該知之且知曉如何與其互動。