Do Not Underestimate Importance of 1992 Consensus to Cross-Strait Relations

Do Not Underestimate Importance of 1992 Consensus to Cross-Strait Relations
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 17, 2011

Summary: National leaders represent the national will. They carry the nation's aspirations on their shoulders. They must be able to gain the people's trust. They must not provoke uncertainty. They must offer people a sense of security. We hope the presidential candidates will act responsibly and make a solemn promise to the people. If you win office, you will continue to honor the 1992 Consensus. If you win office, you will expand the scope of cross-Strait exchanges made possible by the 1992 Consensus.

Full Text Below:

Beijing's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) commemorated its 20th anniversary. Beijing's CPPCC Chairman Jia Qinglin issued a statement. He reminded everyone that the 1992 Consensus exists. It is a hard fact. Denying its existence will make cross-Strait negotiations impossible, It will make agreements reached during past consultations difficult to implement. It will lead to the recurrence of past cross-Strait tensions. Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office Director Wang Yi stressed that "The 1992 Consensus must not be denied. Cross-Strait relations must not regress." This was followed by explicit expressions about the future of cross-Strait relations by even higher-level leaders in Beijing.

The presidential election is less than a month off. At this crucial moment, ruling and opposition party candidates must realize that the 1992 Consensus is the basis of mutual trust, and the path that will benefit Taiwan the most. DPP Chairman Tsai Ing-wen in particular must think twice. She must recognize and reaffirm that the interests of the public on Taiwan transcends political ideology. She must make the pragmatic choices.

Several points in Jia Qinglin's remarks warrant attention. First, he reaffirmed the reality of the 1992 Consensus. He pointed out that in 1992, ARATS and the SEF reached an oral agreement on the One China Principle. This is what people today commonly refer to as the 1992 Consensus. This laid the political foundation for cross-Strait negotiations, This contributed to the Wang-Koo talks held the following year. This constituted an important step in cross-Strait relations. Secondly, he reiterated that cross-Strait negotiations are a priority. They are vital to the interests of compatriots on both sides of the Strait, Negotiations should actively consider the needs of most ordinary citizens, SMEs, and young people, Negotiations should expand cross-Strait exchanges and cooperation, and expand the benefits to the public on both sides of the Strait. Thirdly, he explicitly said the two sides should avoid unnecessary friction in foreign affairs. He said he understood the concerns of Taiwan compatriots, including their desire to participate in international activities. He said Beijing was willing to make reasonable arrangements for cross-Strait consultations.

Jia Qinglin's remarks made no mention of the upcoming presidential election, But his remarks brimmed over with implied concern that cross-Strait relations might regress. Beijing apparently considers the 1992 Consensus its bottom line for further cross-Strait developments.

The global economy has yet to fully recover from the financial tsunami. The impact on the ROC over the past three years has been milder compared to other countries. That is because the government implemented various measures. Other factors also had a major role. These factors include stable cross-Strait relations, direct links, Mainland tourists visiting Taiwan, and the sale of Taiwan's agricultural products, fish, and electrical appliances to the Mainland. The signing of ECFA has enabled Taiwan to attract more international funds. Looking to the future, we expect continued peaceful cross-Strait relations. This includes the ECFA early harvest list. Ninety-four percent of the items on the list will be tariff free in January, one month from now. The public on Taiwan will find it easier to enter and exit the Mainland. The Mainland is even considering importing rice from Taiwan. It is considering normalizing market-based procurement mechanisms for the purchase of a variety of products. These products are relevant to the pragmatic interests of the public on Taiwan. National leaders cannot afford to ignore them. Tsai Ing-wen stands a good chance of being elected. She too needs to think about what is more important. Is it realizing the DPP's goal of Taiwan independence? Or is it fulfiling the needs of the Taiwan public? Two weeks ago, on the eve of the televised presidential debate, Tsai Ing-wen held a press conference. She vowed that following the election she would form a "cross-Strait policy dialogue group." She would make the 1992 Consensus part of the discussions. These vows were part of an attempt to gain the confidence of swing voters. Unfortunately during the debate, Tsai Ing-wen completely reneged on her promises. She reverted to repudiating the 1992 Consensus, pouring cold water on centrist voters.

Without the 1992 Consensus, can the 17 agreements already signed remain in force? Over the past three years regular meetings and consultations between the ARATS and the SEF have been restored, How can they proceed? In the presence of ARATS Vice Chairman Jia Qinglin, SEF Chairman Li Ya-fei assured the Taiwan media that without the 1992 Consensus, regular meetings and consultations between the ARATS and the SEF "would definitely come to an end." The point is not that talks between the leaders of the two associations would come to end. The point is that the benefits conferred upon the public on both sides of the Strait would be lost, All sorts of of jobs beneficial to people on both sides of the Strait would vanish, Most importantly, the losses would affect not just cross-Strait relations, but Taiwan's economic situation.

As we all know, the debt crisis in Europe means the world faces another wave of financial crises, even more serious than the one precipitated by the Lehman Brothers scandal, Taiwan has limited resources. Loss of the Mainland market would sever one of its most important economic arteries. This is why academics and business experts are worried. Some of them are saying that "If Ma is reelected, the economic situation on Taiwan will be bad. But if Tsai Ing-wen is elected, the economic situation on Taiwan will be even worse." Recently Taiwan stocks fell more world stocks, This reflects the uncertainty Taiwan investors feel about the larger situation.

National leaders represent the national will. They carry the nation's aspirations on their shoulders. They must be able to gain the people's trust. They must not provoke uncertainty. They must offer people a sense of security. We hope the presidential candidates will act responsibly and make a solemn promise to the people. If you win office, you will continue to honor the 1992 Consensus. If you win office, you will expand the scope of cross-Strait exchanges made possible by the 1992 Consensus.

別低估九二共識維繫兩岸關係的重要性
2011-12-17中國時報

大陸海協會舉行廿週年紀念大會，大陸全國政協主席賈慶林發表談話，強調「九二共識」是一個客觀事實，否定「九二共識」，兩岸協商就難以為繼，已有的協商成果也將難以落實，兩岸關係勢將重現以往曾有過的動蕩不安。這是繼大陸國台辦主任王毅強調「九二共識不容否認，兩岸關係不容倒退」後，大陸更高層的領導人對兩岸走向再一次明確表態。

值此總統大選不到一個月的關鍵時刻，朝野候選人都不能不正視唯有維護「九二共識」這個兩岸互信基礎，才是最符合台灣利益的做法。特別是民進黨主席蔡英文更須慎重思考，台灣人民的利益理應超越政黨的意識形態，做出務實的抉擇。

賈慶林談話，幾點應特別注意。首先是他確認了「九二共識」存在的事實。他指出一九九二年海協會與台灣海基會經兩岸雙方分別授權，達成各自以口頭方式表述堅持一個中國原則的共識，也就是今天人們稱之的「九二共識」，由此奠定了兩岸協商的政治基礎，促成了次年汪辜會談的舉行，邁出了兩岸關係重要一步。其次他重申兩岸協商應當優先解決事關兩岸同胞切身利益的重要問題，積極考慮廣大基層民眾、中小企業和青年人的需求，使協商成果更加有利於擴大兩岸交流合作，更加廣泛地惠及兩岸民眾。再其次，他也明確主張兩岸在涉外事務中應避免不必要的內耗，同時也理解和重視台灣同胞關心參與國際活動的問題，願意通過兩岸協商作出合情合理的安排。

賈慶林上述談話雖未提及選舉，但憂心兩岸關係有可能倒退的寓意，卻瀰漫通篇談話中，可以這麼說，北京似乎已經將「九二共識」視為兩岸發展後續關係的最後底線了。

這三年多來，全球經濟局勢在金融海嘯重創後，始終復原無力，相對於其他國家，台灣受創有限，除了政府各種措施之外，很大部分得歸功於兩岸關係的穩定發展。直航三通、陸客來台、台灣農漁家電產品輸陸…，兩岸簽署ＥＣＦＡ後，讓台灣更具備吸引國際資金的條件，展望未來，如果兩岸關係持續和平穩健發展，可預期的，包括ＥＣＦＡ早收清單百分之九十四的項目在一個月後的明年元旦即可實施零關稅，未來台灣民眾出入境大陸更便捷，大陸甚至開始思考進口台灣稻米，並建立常態化、市場化的對台採購機制。凡此種種，無一不攸關台灣人民的實際利益。身為國家領導人，不能不以人民的利益為念，對於當選機會極大的蔡英文而言，同樣要思考當選總統究竟是為了實踐民進黨的台獨理念重要？還是維護台灣人民的利益重要？兩週前的總統大選電視辯論會前夕，蔡英文一度出面舉行記者會，表明當選後要組成「兩岸對話小組」，不排除把「九二共識」納入台灣共識的討論，這番這句話某種程度鼓舞中間選民的信心；遺憾的是，蔡英文在辯論會中又全盤推翻，依舊強硬地否認「九二共識」，彷彿當頭澆下一盆冷水。

沒有「九二共識」，已簽署的十七項協議還能繼續執行嗎？更不要提已經恢復三年多、成果豐碩的兩岸兩會領導人定期會談與協商，還能如何進行下去？海協會副會長李亞飛在賈慶林談話前與台灣媒體會面，感慨直言，「那肯定是要停了！」重點不是在兩岸兩會領導人的會談終止，重點在於這意味著兩岸關係勢將重挫，與兩岸人民利益相關的各種工作都將面臨停擺，這個重大變數，不只攸關兩岸關係，更攸關台灣經濟形勢。

眾所周知，在歐債風暴下，全球經濟局勢又將面臨一波較諸雷曼兄弟引爆的金融海嘯更嚴峻的挑戰，台灣資源有限，失去大陸市場就是切斷一條最重要的經濟血脈，這也是為什麼包括學者專家和企業界都極為憂心，甚至有「馬英九連任，經濟形勢與台灣處境壞；蔡英文當選，經濟形勢與台灣處境更壞」的感嘆。最近台股較諸世界各國呈現超跌情況，正是台灣投資人對整體情勢不確定感的投射。

國家領導人是國家意志的表徵，肩上扛的是全國人民的負託，必須能給予人民信賴感，而非不確定感。重要的是：請給人民安全感。請有志於大位總統候選人負責任的給予人民承諾：如果執政可以延續「九二共識」，並擴大「九二共識」所創造的兩岸交流成果。