James Soong Cannot Escape the Clutches of Lee Teng-hui

James Soong Cannot Escape the Clutches of Lee Teng-hui
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 8, 2011

Summary: Thirteen years ago, during the "Lee/Soong showdown," James Soong's battle cry was opposition to Taiwan independence and opposition to black gold. He forced Lee to suffer a major defeat. Thirteen years later, James Soong has returned. This time he is helping Lee Teng-hui "Topple Ma and protect Taiwan" in the name of Taiwan independence, Lee Teng-hui meanwhile, is making sure that James Soong will find himself without a place in either side of the Blue/Green divide, without a role on either side of the Taiwan Strait. He is making sure that James Soong will be remembered as a "Blue Camp Wang Ching-wei, a Green Camp Wu Shan-kui." Thirteen years ago, Lee Teng-hui said "James Soong cannot escape from the clutches of Lee Teng-hui." Today his boast has been fulfilled.

Full Text Below:

In 1998, James Soong and Lee Teng-hui split over the freezing of the Taiwan Provinicial Government. Lee said, "Soong cannot escape form the clutches of Lee Teng-hui." Predictably, when James Soong split from the KMT in 2000 and ran for the presidency as an independent, Lee Teng-hui used his influence to topple the ruling KMT.

That election, in 2000, is known as the "Lee Teng-hui vs. James Soong showdown." The Soong/Chang ticket did not win. But nevertheless it received more votes than the Lee Teng-hui backed Lien/Siew ticket. Actually the loss was not a loss for the Lien/Siew ticket. It was a loss for Lee Teng-hui The Lien/Siew ticket's eventual come back within the Blue Camp proves that. Meanwhile, Lee Teng-hui was summarily ejected from the KMT.

During the 2000 general election, James Soong became part of the Pan Blue Camp. At the time the term "Pan Blue" had yet to be coined. The Soong/Chang ticket scored a major victory over the Lien/Siew ticket. It received 36.84% of the votes, versus 23.1% for the Lien/Siew ticket. This was followed by the rise of the People First Party in the Legislative Yuan, the formation of the Lien/Soong ticket, the secret Bian/Soong meeting, and Soong's visit to the Mainland as Ah-Bian's "special envoy." These show that although Soong lost in 2000, he retained considerable influence. But this was all based on a precondition. During the process Soong was part of the Blue Camp. This was certainly true for the Lien/Soong ticket. Even the "Bian/Soong meeting" was presumed to be something arranged for the sake of cross-Strait relations.

Now take Lee Teng-hui. During the 2000 general election, he did not care whether Lien Chan or Chen Shui-bian won. A Lien Chan win was Lee's first choice, But he was also eager to increase Chen Shui-bian's influence. As long as James Soong lost, either result was acceptable. Lee Teng-hui was unable to ensure a victory by Lien Chan. But he was able to use the Chung Hsing Bills' scandal to ensure a defeat for James Soong. He was able to ensure a victory for Chen Shui-bian, Superficially Lee lost. He was expelled from the KMT. But upon closer scrutiny, he transformed himself into the leader and standard bearer for the Green Camp, His gains far outweighed his losses.

James Soong appears to be duplicating Lee Teng-hui's actions. But Soong's actions are yielding very different results. Lee used the Deep Green Taiwan Solidarity Union to hijack Chen Shui-bian and Tsai Ing-wen. James Soong has tried to use Deep Blues to hijack the KMT. But Lee was always part of the Green Camp. He supported DPP candidates Chen Shui-bian, Frank Hsieh, Tsai Ing-wen during three presidential elections. Functionally and symbolically, his mission was always to unite the Green Camp, It was always to help the DPP, either openly, in the legislature, or covertly, behind the scenes, That is why Lee has been able to remain a Green Camp leader and a Taiwan Independence standard-bearer. On the other hand, ever since James Soong ran for Taipei mayor in 2006 and entered the 2012 presidential race, he has departed from Lee Teng-hui's precedent. Lee Teng-hui remained an integral part of the Green Camp, He remained a major contributor to unity within the Green Camp. He neatly undermined Ma Ying-jeou by dividing the Blue Camp. Lee's path and Soong's path may appear similar. But they are in fact quite different. They are in fact poles apart.

That is why Soong's fate will be very different from Lee's fate. Lee was expelled from the KMT. But he found a place within the Green Camp and the Taiwan Independence movement. James Soong's gambit during this election, on the other hand, has no chance of success. He has no chance of being elected. No matter how many votes he receives, he will never receive enough to be elected president. He can only receive enough to ensure that Ma Ying-jeou is defeated. The problem for Soong is that if Ma Ying-jeou is elected, Soong's plans will be frustrated. On the other hand, if Tsai Ing-wen is elected, Soong's plans will not necessarily be fulfilled.

If Tsai is elected, Taiwan will be buffeted from within and without by the global economic crisis, an onslaught from Beijing, and internal social divisions. The nation will find itself in a state of crisis. If Tsai Ing-wen joins forces with James Soong, how will Beijing react? How will the Blue Camp react? How will the public react? As AIT Chairman Stephen M. Young noted, given how low James Soong has sunk in his pursuit of personal advantage, there is probably no room for him within the Green Camp either. Would Tsai Ing-wen dare use Soong to unite the political parties, mollify the general public, and mediate between Taipei and Bejing?

That is why James Soong's fate will be very different from Lee Teng-hui's. Lee found a home within the Green Camp, But when the current election is over, James Soong will be persona non grata within the Blue Camp. He will be unable to become a leader within the Green Camp. He has written his own death sentence. He has no chance of survival.

Thirteen years ago, Lee Teng-hui froze the Taiwan Provincial Government. He forced James Soong's hand. Soong lashed back. Lee lost power within the KMT. Thirteen years later, Lee Teng-hui praised James Soong, calling him "the finest political administrator ever." He said that "forcing him to run for the legislature was too demeaning." He fired the opening shot in Soong's presidential campaign. .

Thirteen years ago, during the "Lee/Soong showdown," James Soong's battle cry was opposition to Taiwan independence and opposition to black gold. He forced Lee to suffer a major defeat. Thirteen years later, James Soong has returned. This time he is helping Lee Teng-hui "Topple Ma and protect Taiwan" in the name of Taiwan independence, Lee Teng-hui meanwhile, is making sure that James Soong will find himself without a place in either side of the Blue/Green divide, without a role on either side of the Taiwan Strait. He is making sure that James Soong will be remembered as a "Blue Camp Wang Ching-wei, a Green Camp Wu Shan-kui."

Thirteen years ago, Lee Teng-hui said "James Soong cannot escape from the clutches of Lee Teng-hui." Today his boast has been fulfilled.

宋楚瑜畢竟跳不出李登輝手掌心
【聯合報╱社論】
2011.12.08 01:49 am

一九九八年，宋楚瑜與李登輝因「凍省」決裂，李登輝說，「宋跳不出我的手掌心」；詎料，宋楚瑜在二○○○年脫黨競選總統，竟使李登輝將國民黨政權從他的「手掌心」喪失。

二○○○年的那場大選，被稱作「李登輝vs.宋楚瑜」的大對決。選舉結果，「宋張配」雖未勝選，卻大勝李登輝力挺的「連蕭配」；唯此役其實未必是「連蕭配」的失敗，而當然是李登輝的重挫，這從連蕭二人後來又在藍營崛起即可證明，而李登輝卻就此被踢出了國民黨。

宋楚瑜在二○○○年大選期間，儼然成為泛藍主流（當時尚無「泛藍」一詞），這從「宋張配」大勝「連蕭配」即知（三十六‧八四％比二十三‧一％）。後來，親民黨在立院崛起，到「連宋配」的形成，甚至演變至「扁宋會」，及宋以扁的「特使」身分自居往訪大陸，皆顯示宋在二○○○年大選之役雖敗猶強，餘威仍在。不過，這一切其實皆有一個前提：宋在這些過程中，皆是在「泛藍」的大範疇內，「連宋配」固然是如此，連「扁宋會」時也是被看上他在泛藍及兩岸間的可能效用。

回頭說李登輝。他在二○○○年大選的態勢是，連戰贏或陳水扁贏，對他皆可。連戰贏當然是李登輝的第一志願，但陳水扁贏對他亦有操作空間，只要宋楚瑜輸即可。所以，此役李登輝雖未能使連戰贏，但能用「興票案」擊垮宋楚瑜，而使陳水扁當選，於是李登輝其實也可說是似輸未輸。李雖就此被逐出國民黨，但經過一番算計與操作，如今卻成了綠營教主及台獨旗手，可謂是失之東隅，收之桑榆。

對比之下，宋楚瑜如今的操作，看似與李登輝如出一轍，卻可能是畫虎類犬。李用「極綠」的台聯，挾制陳水扁，迄今仍挾持蔡英文；相對而言，宋楚瑜的手法則似想用「極藍」來挾制國民黨。但李畢竟始終是綠營的側翼，並支持「陳水扁／謝長廷／蔡英文」的民進黨三屆總統選舉；在功能及形象上，他皆以綠營的大整合者自命，始終只在立院層次或幕後與民進黨折衝，這正是李至今仍能維持其綠營教主、台獨旗手地位的原因。然而，宋楚瑜自從在二○○六年跳出來參選台北市長，至此次投入總統大選，他不像李登輝作綠營的側翼，也不像李登輝作綠營的大整合者，卻儼然是要直接扳倒馬英九，作為藍營的大撕裂者。所以，李宋的路數看似相似，實際上卻是大相逕庭、南轅北轍。

因此，李宋二人的下場亦將不同。李登輝被國民黨逐出，卻在綠營及台獨找到了政治歸宿。但宋楚瑜這盤棋走下去，他絕無當選的可能；而他若得票愈高，也絕不可能高到可以當選的程度，卻必可高到使馬英九落選。問題是：馬英九若當選，宋自是所圖不逞，而蔡英文若當選，宋楚瑜也未必能有所圖。

已可預見，蔡若當選，面對全球經濟風暴、北京相逼、社會撕裂，可謂必是內外交煎的困境；在那種焦頭爛額的情勢下，她若欲與宋楚瑜聯手，北京如何反應？藍營何能接受？社會何能信服？何況，以宋的人格扭曲與巧詐至此（楊甦棣語），恐怕連綠營也容不下他；蔡英文敢用宋作為她整合政壇、安撫社會、協調兩岸的仲介嗎？

所以，宋楚瑜與李登輝的下場不同。李在綠營找到了歸宿，但宋楚瑜經過此役，他不可能見容於藍營的主流，亦無可能成為綠營的政治股東。既是自作孽，必是不可活。

十三年前，李登輝以「凍省」，將宋楚瑜逼反，最後李因此丟掉國民黨政權；十三年後，李登輝卻以一句「宋是最佳行政人才」、「選立委太委屈了」的讚語，不啻放了宋競選總統的第一聲起身砲。

十三年前的「李宋對決」中，宋楚瑜以反台獨反黑金的號召，教李登輝吃了大敗仗；但是，十三年後，宋楚瑜回過頭來大力襄助李登輝「棄馬保台」的台獨大業，而李登輝最後則將賞給宋楚瑜一個到頭來「藍綠兩頭落空／兩岸無處立足」的下場，叫宋吃下「藍營汪精衛／綠營吳三桂」的歷史定論。

十三年前，李登輝說「宋跳不出我的手掌心」；此言今日應驗。