Repudiation of the 1992 Consensus Will Set Back Cross-Strait Economic and Trade Relations

Repudiation of the 1992 Consensus Will Set Back Cross-Strait Economic and Trade Relations
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 6, 2011

Summary: On Thursday, Hon Hai Group Chairman Terry Gou threw his support behind Ma Ying-jeou. He is worried that next year's general election could be an upset. He even said that "many companies have two different strategies planned, just in case." The next day, Delta Electronics chairman Bruce Cheng joined the ranks of Taiwanese entrepreneurs backing Ma Ying-jeou. Guo and Cheng are not what would traditionally be referred to as "Blue-oriented Enterprises." Yet they spontaneously expressed identical sentiments. Therefore attention should be paid.

Full Text Below:

On Thursday, Hon Hai Group Chairman Terry Gou threw his support behind Ma Ying-jeou. He is worried that next year's general election could be an upset. He even said that "many companies have two different strategies planned, just in case." The next day, Delta Electronics chairman Bruce Cheng joined the ranks of Taiwanese entrepreneurs backing Ma Ying-jeou. Guo and Cheng are not what would traditionally be referred to as "Blue-oriented Enterprises." Yet they spontaneously expressed identical sentiments. Therefore attention should be paid.

Terry Gou said that next year, when another tsunami strikes, Taiwan's economy will face 10 meter waves, not one meter waves. Turbulent times requires a skilled helmsman. What businesses fear the most is uncertainty. If President Ma wins a second term, businesses can plan for the future. But if a change in ruling parties takes place, businesses may need to wait until May of next year before taking action. "This will result in a deadly window." Companies have responded to the two possible outcomes of next year's presidential election by mapping out two different business strategies. Bruce Cheng said he feared a change in ruling parties would make it impossible for him to respond to changes in the international situation. That was why he supported President Ma's reelection.

The Democratic Progressive Party ruled for eight years. Even if the DPP returns to power, it will continue to support business and economic development. So why are domestic enterprises worried? Actually, everyone knows why, but nobody is willing to say so out loud. The problem is the DPP's cross-Strait policy, particulary its refusal to recognize the 1992 Consensus. The DPP's cross-Strait policy could completely sabotage 16 cross-Strait agreements reached over the past three years, including ECFA, overnight.

Contrast this with the 2000 general election. The global economy was sound. Taiwan's economy and stock market were sound. Few people worried about the downside risk. The Mainland had an economy worth only 1.1 trillion. Taiwan had an economy one fourth the size of the Mainland's. The Mainland was of much less economic significant to Taiwan than it is today. Back then, it was merely a manufacturing base. Back then, there were no "Mainland tourists."

Today however, the Mainland has an economy worth 5.8 trillion, It is the second largest economy in the world. Today Taiwan's economy is only 7% the size of the Mainland's. The Mainland is not merely the world's factory, its is also the world's fastest growing consumer market. It is the world's largest market for automobiles, LCD TVs, and PCs. Exports from Taiwan to the mainland and Hong Kong increased from 20% to 40%. During the financial tsunami, purchases made by Mainland purchasing groups enabled Taiwan companies to emerge from the shadow of the recession. Millions of Mainland tourists visit Taiwan each year. The finance industry has high hopes for a "green passage." It is conducting follow-up consultations, preparing to increase the number of items on the ECFA checklist.

As we can see, Taiwan's economic and industrial relationship to the Mainland is very different from what it was 12 years ago. Taiwan is much more economically dependent upon the Mainland than it was in the past. This is why the business community is so worried. A global economic downturn next year is inevitable. Economic forecasts for next year have been revised downward. Europe will experience nearly zero growth. The US will experience one to two percent growth. Mainland China meanwhile, will experience 8 to 8.5% growth. Taiwan faces harsh economic challenges next year. If cross-Strait relations change, Taiwan's economy may tank. The DPP's cross-Strait policy will surely force changes upon cross-Strait relations.

DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen refuses to recognize the 1992 Consensus. She relentlessly trumpets her "Taiwan consensus." But three years of warming cross-Strait relations, including various agreements and ECFA, are all rooted in the 1992 Consensus. The Mainland has made clear that "rejection of the 1992 Consensus will destroy the foundation for all subsequent agreements." The DPP's "Taiwan consensus" is sheer solipsism. It could set cross-Strait relations back decades. Once cross-Strait relations have been set back, Mainland capital will swiftly evaporate, and Taiwan's future will be jeopardized. This is why the business community is worried.

These concerns have gradually had an impact. First when Ma and Tsai's poll numbers were deadlocked. Taiwanese stocks plummeted to a new low, below 6800. The decline exceeded those in neighboring countries. Market players were concerned that Tsai might be elected. The cross-Strait economy was discounted. The world's six major central banks joined forces to rescue the market. This meant another global financial crisis was gaining momentum. This meant the economic situation was unlikely to improve next year. Business leaders then proceeded to make their views known. They said if Tsai Ing-wen was elected, she might harm Taiwan's economy. Tsai Ing-wen held an emergency press conference the day before the debate. She declared that "anything can be discussed between the two sides." She promised she would not abruptly terminate any previously signed cross-Strait agreements. She tried to reassure the public that a change in ruling parties would not undermine cross-Strait relations.

The main concern of outside observers was that Tsai Ing-wen would terminate ECFA and its accompanying agreements. They were afraid. The Mainland might not explicitly terminate the agreements. But it might refuse to implement them. The agreement would amount to nothing more than a piece of paper. The Mainland would refuse to honor the remaining items on the ECFA checklist. The number of tourists would diminish. Purchasing groups would cease arriving. The green channel eagerly anticipated by the financial sector would vanish. Tsai Ing-wen's only response to these business and market concerns was wishful thinking and hollow assurances of "consultation and dialogue."

The debate was an ideal opportunity to reassure doubts about the DPP. But Tsai Ing-wen offered nothing but platitudes. She reiterated her intention "to promote equitable economic and trade relations, under the aegis of multilateral organizations." This is sheer chutzpah. Since when has Taiwan had the wherewithal to dictate terms to these multilateral organizations? Besides, multilateral organizations such as the WTO are gradually being replaced by bilateral frameworks such as FTAs. Yet the DPP insists that "although there may have been 1992 talks, there was no 1992 consensus." The DPP insists that "the 1992 consensus was merely a consensus between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party." The DPP continues to issue statements denying the existence of the 1992 Consensus. No wonder Terry Gou said many businesses have prepared two sets of responses. The DPP and Tsai Ing-wen -- are you listening?

否認九二共識 兩岸經貿恐倒退嚕
2011-12-06 中國時報

上周四，鴻海集團董事長郭台銘首度表態挺馬；因為擔心明年大選後變天，他甚至說「企業都準備兩套方案因應」。隔日，台達電董事長鄭崇華也加入挺馬行列，郭、鄭都不是傳統上定義的「藍色企業」，卻不約而同的發聲，所傳遞的訊息值得注意。

郭台銘說，台灣明年經濟面對的不是一公尺的海浪，而是「十公尺的海浪」，動盪時刻需要熟練的舵手。企業最怕的是不確定因素，如馬總統連任，現在就可規畫往後工作；但如政黨再輪替，可能拖延到明年五月之後才能應變，「這樣將會產生致命的空窗期」。為因應明年總統大選結果，企業心中都備妥Ａ、Ｂ兩套計畫。鄭崇華則說因為他擔心政權更替，無法應付未來的國際變局，因此支持馬總統連任。

從過去民進黨執政的八年來看，民進黨即使再上台，仍會大力支持企業及經濟發展，國內企業到底在擔心什麼？其實，大家意在言外、卻未明說者，就是民進黨的兩岸政策─特別是民進黨不承認「九二共識」，可能讓近三年多修好的兩岸關係及其十六項協議、ＥＣＦＡ…，在一夜間豬羊變色，全部傾覆。

與二○○○年大選時相較，當時全球景氣熱絡，台灣的經濟與股市還算是「熱烘烘」，沒太多人擔心經濟下行風險。而兩岸的經貿關係方面，大陸當時只是一個規模一．一兆美元的經濟體，台灣的經濟規模約大陸的四分之一；大陸對台灣的意義，只是重要的生產基地；當時，沒有所謂「大陸觀光客」。

但今日，大陸已是規模五．八兆美元的全球第二大經濟體，台灣只有大陸的七％；大陸不僅是世界工廠，更是全球成長最快的消費市場─不論是汽車、ＬＣＤ電視、ＰＣ…，都是全球最大市場。台灣對大陸及香港的出口占全體出口的比重，由二成上下增為四成左右；在金融海嘯時，大陸採購團的大手筆採購，讓台灣企業提早走出陰霾，還有每年上百萬的觀光客、發展中金融業寄予厚望的「綠色通道」、準備協商增加的ＥＣＦＡ後續清單…。

由此可以看出迥異於十二年前的兩岸經貿關係圖像，台灣經濟與產業與大陸的互動已不同於過往，台灣經濟依賴大陸活水的比重遠高於當年，企業界的憂心即由此而來。明年全球經濟下行已是難以挽回的趨勢，國際上所有預測單位都不斷下修明年的經濟預測值，歐洲甚至是接近零成長，美國只有一到二％的成長，大陸則下修到八到八．五％。台灣明年面對的經濟挑戰相當嚴苛，如此時再發生兩岸關係生變，台灣經濟將更墜入谷底─但民進黨的兩岸政策，卻明顯會讓兩岸關係生變。

民進黨總統候選人蔡英文不承認「九二共識」，改不斷強調「台灣共識」；但當三年來兩岸關係的和緩與各項協議及ＥＣＦＡ，都建基在九二共識上時，大陸方面也明白表達「棄九二共識則一切協議的基礎都不在」時，自拉自唱的台灣共識，當然就可能讓台灣陷入兩岸關係倒退的險境；兩岸關係一旦倒退，原本來自大陸方面的經濟活水，就可能逐漸乾涸，台灣經濟風險亦增高。企業界憂心者正是這點。

此一憂心近日逐漸發酵。先是在馬蔡選情呈膠著時，台股跌破六八○○點的低點，跌幅高於鄰近國家，市場認為這是擔心蔡當選、兩岸生變的「折價」；接著全球六大央行聯手救市，宣告另波的國際金融風暴正蓄勢待發，明年經濟難有好局面。再來是企業開始表態，說出對蔡當選後可能對台灣經濟的負面影響之憂慮。蔡英文雖然在辯論會前日，緊急召開記者會，宣告「兩岸間什麼都可以談」，並保證不會貿然終止過去兩岸簽署的各項協議，正是安撫各界對變天可能導致兩岸關係丕變的憂慮。

外界主要憂慮者，不是蔡英文會不會終止包括ＥＣＦＡ在內的各項協議，而是擔心對岸就算不明言終止這些協議，但也不確實執行。結果是協議形同具文，ＥＣＦＡ後續清單不再談，觀光客減少、採購團不來、金融業的綠色通道消失…。而蔡英文至今對企業界與市場的這些憂慮，仍只見一廂情願的「協商對話」。

原本應該是釐清外界疑慮最佳場合的辯論會上，還是只能看見蔡英文說「要推動均衡經貿關係，在多邊組織主導議題…」─台灣何德何能在多邊組織主導議題？更何況ＷＴＯ的多邊組織已逐漸被ＦＴＡ的雙邊架構替代；還有「九二年有九二會談，但沒有九二共識」、「九二共識是國民黨與共產黨的共識…」等持續否認九二共識的說法。難怪，郭台銘要說企業都準備兩套因應方案，民進黨與蔡英文，聽到了嗎？