A Vote for James Soong is a Vote for Tsai Ing-wen

A Vote for James Soong is a Vote for Tsai Ing-wen
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
January 2, 2011

Summary:James Soong must make his position clear. Is "Rejecting Ma, Defending Taiwan" really his strategy for saving the nation? Soong says that if he drops out of the race now, "What kind of a person would he be?" But suppose he and Tsai Ing-wen succeed in "Rejecting Ma, Defending Taiwan" and promoting Taiwan independence on January 14? He can stop wondering what kind of person he will be. He will go down in infamy as a "Wang Ching-wei and Wu Sangui," as a traitor and a turncoat, He will have to answer to Soong Ta, his late father, who defended the Republic of China with his life, in the world hereafter.


Full Text Below:

Some have said, "A vote for James Soong is a vote for Tsai Ing-wen," James Soong is threatening to sue them. But "A vote for James Soong is a vote for Tsai Ing-wen." This is all too clear.

This is the result of simple number crunching. The consensus is that Tsai Ing-wen could win as much as 47% of the vote, Ma Ying-jeou will then have to win 48%. Add 47% to 48% and one is left with 5%. In other words, if James Soong wins over 5% of the vote, Ma will lose.

We are assuming that Tsai Ing-wen could win 47% of the vote. Consider two points that support this possibility. One. In 2008 Frank Hsieh won 42% of the vote. The DPP currently enjoys more momentum than it did in 2008. Tsai Ing-wen currently enjoys more momentum than Frank Hsieh did in 2008. Therefore Tsai Ing-wen should be able to win at least 42% of the vote. Two. In 2004, Chen Shui-bian won 50.11% of the vote. The 3/19 Shooting Incident was a factor of course. But in the DPP still has the potential to win nearly 50% of the vote. The Democratic Progressive Party currently enjoys greater momentum than it did in 2004. Tsai Ing-wen currently enjoys greater momentum than Chen Shui-bian did in 2004. Therefore, Tsai has the potential to win nearly 50% of the vote. Given these parameters, the claim that Tsai Ing-wen could win 47% of the vote is highly persuasive.

As mentioned before, if Soong wins over 5% of the vote, Ma will lose. So the first question is, could Soong win 5% of the vote? The answer is yes, he could. Because 5% is 650,000 votes, Assume 150,000 votes island-wide. If James Soong receives 40 or more votes at each polling station, he can easily attain that number of votes. It is entirely possible.

In other words, whether Soong can win 5% of the vote is a matter of statistics. It is possible. In the 2006 Taipei mayoral election he won 4.1% of the vote. Conversely, if James Soong fails to win 5% of the vote, it means the electorate has matured and better understands world events. Now that would be a greater statistical and sociological anomaly. That would be far more improbable.

The only certainty in the current election, is that James Soong absolutely will not win. If Tsai wins 47% of the vote, Soong will have to win 48% of the vote. In other words, he would have to ensure that Ma wins less than 5% of the vote. But polls currently show Soong winning only 6 to 7% of the vote. Oddsmakers are giving him less than a 1% chance of victory. Some are giving him odds as low as 0.1%. Soong absolutely will not win. That much is certain. James Soong knows this perfectly well.

The vast majority of the votes Soong have won so far are Blue Camp votes. That is because Soong's campaign appeal is hardline reunificationist. No Green Camp voter is ever going to vote for Soong. Therefore every vote Soong wins will be a Blue Camp vote. Every vote Soong wins will increase the risk of Ma losing and and Tsai winning. Therefore a vote for James Soong is a vote for Tsai Ing-wen, This is a simple fact, about which there can be no doubt.

James Soong is deliberately undermining Ma and assisting Tsai. But he contradicts himself. James Soong's core values are allegiance to the Republic of China Constitution and promoting cross-Strait rapproachment. He publicly affirmed Ma's ECFA as a "important effort." He openly criticized Tsai for repudiating the 1992 Consensus. He said it would have "serious consequences." These represent Soong's core values, Yet he is persists in toppling Ma, who made an "important effort" and elevating Tsai, whose election will have "serious consequences." Is this not a contradiction?

Nobody knows that James Soong is unelectable better than James Soong. Nobody knows better than James Soong that a Tsai Ing-wen victory would have "serious consequences" for the nation's constitution and for cross-Strait relations. When someone asked James Soong about the "5% difference between life and death," he said "The important thing is not the 5%, but who can prevent Taiwan's decline." But James Soong is doing his utmost to unseat Ma Ying-jeou and to put Tsai Ing-wen in control of the Taiwan independence juggernaut. He is personally ensuring Taiwan's decline.

James Soong can nurse all sorts of personal grudges against his rivals. But if he still gives a damn about his country or his compatriots, he has no excuse to lead 5% of the voters down the primrose path. He has no excuse to create "serious consequences" leading to Taiwan's decline. James Soong clearly knows he is undermining the Republic of China and harming Taiwan. But his Blue Camp supporters think he is championing justice and saving the nation. Do they really knot know James Soong is taking advantage of them? Do they really not know they are helping to elevate Tsai Ing-wen to the office of Republic of China President?

The election is dangerously close. Unless Tsai Ing-wen breaks through the 50% mark and achieves an absolute majority, or receives less than 45% of the vote, James Soong's votes will decide whether Ma Ying-jeou is elected. One percent equals 130,000 votes. Never mind claims that 5% will decide life and death. One percent could be all that is necessary to decide the fate of Ma and Tsai.

James Soong must make his position clear. Is "Rejecting Ma, Defending Taiwan" really his strategy for saving the nation? Soong says that if he drops out of the race now, "What kind of a person would he be?" But suppose he and Tsai Ing-wen succeed in "Rejecting Ma, Defending Taiwan" and promoting Taiwan independence on January 14? He can stop wondering what kind of person he will be. He will go down in infamy as a "Wang Ching-wei and Wu Sangui," as a traitor and a turncoat, He will have to answer to Soong Ta, his late father, who defended the Republic of China with his life, in the world hereafter.

選宋楚瑜就是選蔡英文
【聯合報╱社論】
2012.01.02 03:10 am

有人說，「選宋楚瑜就是選蔡英文」，宋楚瑜揚言提告；然而，「選宋楚瑜就是選蔡英文」，已是昭然若揭的事實。

這是以數字推演出來的結論。一般的說法是：若以蔡英文的得票率為四十七％當做準據，則馬英九若要贏蔡英文，就至少必須得票四十八％。四十七加四十八，餘下的空間只有百分之五；也就是說，在此一架構下，宋楚瑜的得票若超過百分之五，馬必落選。

此一架構的假設前提是蔡英文得票四十七％。有兩個參考點，可以支持此項假設。一、謝長廷在二○○八得票約四十二％，而此時民進黨的氣勢勝二○○八的民進黨，此時蔡的聲勢勝二○○八的謝，因此蔡英文的得票至少可從四十二％起跳。二、陳水扁在二○○四年得票五十‧一一％，當年雖有三一九槍擊案影響，但無論如何皆顯示民進黨有得票近五十％的潛力；而此時民進黨的氣勢勝二○○四年，此時的蔡勝二○○四的扁，因此蔡的得票率亦有向五十％趨近的實力。從這兩個參數作出蔡英文得票四十七％的推論，具有說服力。

如前所述，在這個架構下，宋若得票超過五％，馬即落選。那麼，宋的得票會不會有五％呢？答案是有可能。因為，五％就是六十五萬票，若以全國一萬五千個票匭來計算，只要宋楚瑜在每一個票匭開出四十幾票，就能達到那個票數，怎謂沒有可能？

也就是說，宋要拿到五％選票，從統計的常態分布來看，是有可能的（他在二○○六台北市長選舉得票四‧一四％）；反過來說，如果宋楚瑜拿不到五％，則那種選民的表現所透露的對世局國情的深刻成熟思考，才是統計學及社會學上的異態，反而可以令人驚異不置。

此次選舉唯一可以確切預言之事，就是宋楚瑜絕對不會當選。因為，仍以蔡得票四十七％為準據，宋若要當選，須獲四十八％選票，也就是要將馬壓至五％以下；但如今宋的民調在六至七％徘徊，其看好率則在一％以下，甚至有時低至○‧一％。宋之絕對不會當選，是當然與必然之理，亦為宋楚瑜自己心知肚明之事。

此時宋能拉到的選票，絕對大多數應是泛藍的選票。因為，宋標舉的是極統觀點，不可能有泛綠選民把票投給宋；所以，宋拉到的每一張泛藍選票，都會造成使馬落選的壓力，亦將成為使蔡當選的助力。因此，選宋楚瑜就是選蔡英文，這個論點可謂理所當然，毫無疑問。

問題在於：宋楚瑜執意倒馬挺蔡，卻陷於自我矛盾之中。宋楚瑜的中心觀點仍在國憲認同與兩岸政策，他公開肯定馬的ＥＣＦＡ是「重大努力」，又公開指蔡之否定九二共識「後果嚴重」；倘若這是宋的真信仰，他卻要拉下「重大努力」的馬，而要拉上「後果嚴重」的蔡，這豈不是自相矛盾？

沒有人比宋楚瑜更知道他絕對不會當選，也很少人比宋楚瑜更知道蔡英文若當選，將在國憲認同及兩岸關係上發生的「嚴重後果」。有人問起「五％生死門」的問題，宋楚瑜說：「重要的不是五％，而是誰能不讓台灣趴下去！」但是，宋楚瑜如今正在做的事，就是要拚命拉下馬英九，將台灣綁在蔡英文的台獨戰車上，親眼目送台灣就這樣趴下去！

宋楚瑜如果有一丁點為國為民的不忍之念，即使他有千般百般的私仇私恨，也沒有理由裹惑五％的選民與他一起去製造「嚴重的後果」，「讓台灣趴下去」。宋楚瑜明明知道他自己是在摧毀國脈傷害台灣，但那些迄今仍支持他的泛藍選民，尚以為是在伸張正義救國家；那些泛藍選民難道知道：宋楚瑜現在要利用他們去做的，其實是等於要他們扶助蔡英文做中華民國總統？

選情緊繃，間不容髮。除非蔡英文可衝破五十％過半選票，或蔡英文的選票低於四十五％；否則，宋楚瑜的得票高低必定是馬英九能否當選的決定性因素。一％十三萬票，莫說五％是生死門，一％都可能決定馬蔡二人的生死。

宋楚瑜必須說明的是，「棄馬保台」難道就是他的救國方略？他說，現在如果不選了，「連人都做不成了」；但當他在一月十四日若與蔡英文共同實現了「棄馬保台」的台獨大業，莫說「人做不成」，當他揹上「汪精衛／吳三桂」的罵名，恐怕另日也無顏見他那為捍衛中華民國而浴血苦戰的亡父宋達於地下了！