Vote For Someone Who Will Do You Some Good

Vote For Someone Who Will Do You Some Good
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
January 12, 2011

Summary: DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen refuses to recognize the 1992 Consensus. Her election would inevitably throw a monkeywrench into cross-Strait relations. The global economic picture for this year is poor. Add to this a deadlock in cross-Strait relations, and the "peace dividend" would evaporate. The economy would suffer. Everyone would suffer. Therefore, do not say "It won't affect me." Listen to Wang Wen-yuan, president of Formosa Plastics, who said, "Vote for someone who will do you some good!"

Full Text Below:

We are about to cast our ballots in Saturday's general election. Some say it will make no difference who is elected; the lives of ordinary citizens will not be affected. But we say the election is not merely a political decision. It is a decision that will decide the future of cross-strait relations, that will impact the domestic economy.

The global economy suffered a downturn this year. Experts at home and abroad agree. The latest shocks originated in Europe. Late last year, nations across Europe administered a number of remedies for the European debt crisis. They increased relief funds to the monetary union. They injected nearly 100 billion Euros into the European Central Bank. They lowered interest rates. They tried a variety of methods. But will these prescriptions remedy the debt crisis in Europe? No one knows. We do know that the European economy is unlikely to perform well this year.

Almost all international institutions forecast either a recession or near zero growth for the EU. This includes even Germany and France, the two largest nations in the Eurozone. Two consecutive quarters of decline are likely. This may lead the economy into a recession. The financial system has been dragged down by the European debt crisis. It must undergo deleveraging. European financial markets must enter a period of lowered expectations. The negative impact of the European debt crisis and economic slowdown has already impacted Taiwan. During the first three quarters of last year, our exports to Europe enjoyed a 12.5% growth rate. Soon afterwards however, it fell. By December last year, it was negative 15.6%.

The economic data for the United States shows improvement. The latest unemployment figures have dropped to 8.5%. The recovery is fragile. It is good news meriting cautious optimism. But the European recession is more severe than expected. Will it frustrate a U.S. recovery? The Mainland economy has slowed significantly. Its estimated growth rate this year is now 8%. Everyone is wondering whether the Mainland will experience a hard or soft landing. If the landing is hard, the global economy could take another downturn.

This year's international economic trends show that Taiwan's economy faces serious challenges. If cross-Strait relations worsen, can Taiwan's economy still withstand the onslaught? People are genuinely worried. Some think they will not be affected. After all, Taiwan's economy survived eight years under Democratic Progressive Party rule. But this ignores the changes that have taken place in the global economy and cross-Strait economic and trade relations over the past several years.

Following the 2008 financial crisis, several emerging nations gained economic strength. The Mainland region of China is the most obvious example. The Mainland has become the world's second largest economy. It has also transformed itself from the world's factory into the world's market. Each year Mainland imports approach 1.7 trillion dollars, rivaling United States imports at 1.9 trillion dollars. Nations and corporations the world over consider the Mainland market a strategic goal.

After the KMT returned to office in 2008, the thaw in cross-Strait relations yielded a "peace dividend." It enabled the Mainland to send large scale procurement groups to Taiwan, to purchase 20 billion U.S. dollars in industrial, agricultural, and fishery products. It enabled 1.7 million tourists to boost Taiwan's economy. The ECFA early harvest list enabled companies on Taiwan to export a variety of products at reduced or even zero tariff rates to the Mainland, enhancing their competitiveness. This year the early harvest list will be expanded. More products from Taiwan will benefit. Over the past three years, Taiwan's economy has benefited from the cross-Strait thaw. These benefits have not been limited to conglomerates and big business. Even those who have not benefited directly, have benefitted indirectly from the general prosperity. Conversely, if cross-Strait relations are undermined, these economic benefits will shrink or disappear altogether. If the economy goes into recession, the general public will suffer as well.

For example, the Mainland would reduce its procurement of flat panels and other tech products. You may not work in the technology industry. But if the technology industry experiences a downturn, companies will be forced to do what they did during the financial crisis. They will institute lay-offs or unpaid leave. The employees affected will be forced to reduce consumption. In which case the restaurant, apparel, and other domestic, consumption-oriented industries will fall victim as well. If the number of Mainland tourists falls, the victims will not be limited to entrepreneurs who invested in the construction of hotels. The hotel workers they employe will also find themselves out of work. Travel industry guides, tour bus drivers, taxi drivers, even operators of tourist spots and night market vendors will fall prey. The lucky ones will earn less. The unlucky ones will find themselves on the street. When these people find themselves unemployed or earning less. they will consume less, Soon another group of people wiil suffer. This is how the economic knock-on effect works.

The numbers tell us that during an economic recession, the first victims, the ones that suffer the most, are not the wealthy, but the middle and lower class. They are the ones least able to survive the recession. During the 2001 and 2009 recessions, the gap between the rich and the poor, prior to government transfer payments, soared sharply.

DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen refuses to recognize the 1992 Consensus. Her election would inevitably throw a monkeywrench into cross-Strait relations. The global economic picture for this year is poor. Add to this a deadlock in cross-Strait relations, and the "peace dividend" would evaporate. The economy would suffer. Everyone would suffer. Therefore, do not say "It won't affect me." Listen to Wang Wen-yuan, president of Formosa Plastics, who said, "Vote for someone who will do you some good!"

好好選一個「對自己好」的對象
2012-01-12中國時報

本周六大選即將投票，或許仍有不少人說，誰當選還是一樣，對升斗小民不會有影響。不過，我們要說的是：選舉結果不但是政治上的決策，也會影響著兩岸關係走勢，更會衝擊著國內經濟。

今年全球經濟景氣低迷、震盪，幾乎已是國內外專家的共識了，而其震源是來自歐洲。去年下半年，雖然歐洲國家已針對歐債危機，開出各種「藥方」─從增加紓困基金到財政聯盟、再到近五千億歐元的注資歐洲銀行、調降利息，各種手法紛紛出籠。這些藥方是否能讓歐洲脫離歐債危機，猶在未知之數，但歐洲經濟今年難有表現，已是既定事實。

國際機構對歐盟的經濟預測，幾乎都是衰退或接近零成長，包括德、法兩個歐元區主要國家，很可能出現連續兩季的衰退，使經濟步入衰退。而金融體系因歐債拖累必須進行的去槓桿化過程，又讓歐洲金融市場進入縮收期。其實，歐債危機及其引發的歐洲經濟走緩的負面影響，已明顯反映在台灣身上。去年一到三季，我國對歐洲出口仍有十二．五％的成長率，但之後就日漸低迷；去年十二月已變成衰退十五．六％。

至於美國，經濟數據雖然好轉，最新的失業率已降到八．五％，進入「脆弱的復甦」，算是值得「審慎樂觀」的好消息；惟歐洲衰退如較預期嚴重，是否會讓美國的復甦受挫，仍須留意。大陸則經濟明顯減速，今年預估成長率大概降到八％；各界關注大陸會是「硬著陸」或「軟著陸」，如是硬著陸，全球經濟恐怕又將進入另一波下修。

從今年國際經濟大勢分析即可看出，今年台灣的經濟的確面臨嚴峻的挑戰。如果此時再加上兩岸關係生變的因素，台灣經濟是否能承受，實在讓人憂心。或許有人認為：不會影響到自己；而且過去民進黨執政八年，台灣經濟還是挺過來了。不過，我們要說的是：這種看法完全無視近幾年全球經濟與兩岸經貿關係的變化。

二○○八年金融海嘯之後，新興國家經濟實力抬頭，其中又以大陸最明顯。大陸不僅成為全球第二大經濟體，更由世界工廠轉型為世界市場；每年大陸進口金額一．七兆美元，已接近美國的一．九兆美元了。世界各國、全球各大企業，莫不視搶奪大陸市場為戰略目標。

二○○八年國民黨執政後，兩岸關係和緩帶來的「和平紅利」，讓大陸每年組成龐大的採購團，來台採購二百億美元包括工業產品與農漁業產品；一年一百七十萬的觀光客，提振了台灣的經濟；ＥＣＦＡ的早收清單，讓台灣各種產品能以更低或零關稅進入大陸市場，提升台灣商品的競爭力，今年並將續談擴大早收清單，讓更多台灣產品早日享受優惠。我們可以說，這三年台灣的經濟的確受惠於兩岸和緩帶來的利益，而且這個利益並非獨厚財團或大企業。民眾即使並非直接受惠，也因經濟表現佳而間接受惠─但反之亦是，如果兩岸關係生變，原本的經濟利益都將大幅減少或甚至完全消失，經濟走弱衰退，屆時也是民眾普遍都會受害。

例如，大陸減少採購台灣面板及各種科技產品，也許，你不在科技產業中；但科技產業下滑，企業只能如金融海嘯時一樣的裁員或大放無薪假，這些員工必然減少消費，那麼餐廳、服飾及其它內需消費產業，也要跟著受害。大陸觀光客減少，受害者不是那些這幾年投資興建旅館的企業家而已，他們雇用的員工也可能因而失業；旅行業的導遊、司機，甚至各觀光區、夜市的攤販、業者，難道不會跟著受害；輕者收入減少，重者失業。當有一批人失業或收入減少時，他們的消費必然減少，接著就再有另外一批人受害。經濟的連鎖效應就是這樣來的。

而且，從統計數據上可以看出，當經濟衰退時，第一個受害者─或是說受害最嚴重者，不是富人，而是中低收入者，他們是最無能力抗拒經濟衰退者。民國九十年及九十八年兩次經濟衰退，當年的政府移轉收支前的貧富差距倍數，立刻大幅飆高，即為明證。

民進黨總統候選人蔡英文不願承認「九二共識」，如當選必然導致兩岸關係生變。在今年全球經濟大環境已不佳下，如再加上兩岸關係再進入僵局，原有的「和平紅利」將消失，經濟必然大受衝擊，每個人都可能因而受害。所以，不要再說「不會影響我」。聽聽台塑總裁王文淵說的，選一個「對自己好」的對象吧！