Admit Mistakes of 2014, Create Opportunities for 2015

Admit Mistakes of 2014, Create Opportunities for 2015
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 31, 2014

Executive Summary: Tonight we bid farewell to 2014, and welcome 2015. We reminisce over the shocks and controversies of the past year. We look ahead to the unprecedented challenges facing us in 2015. Taiwan must either clear the air or fall into decline. Can we rebuild a consensus about the direction of the nation and move ahead? That is the question.

Full Text Below:

Tonight we bid farewell to 2014, and welcome 2015. We reminisce over the shocks and controversies of the past year. We look ahead to the unprecedented challenges facing us in 2015. Taiwan must either clear the air or fall into decline. Can we rebuild a consensus about the direction of the nation and move ahead? That is the question.

For the ruling Ma government and the KMT, 2014 was prolonged torture. President Ma Ying-jeou regarded the STA as a shining achievement. Yet the public viewed it with suspicion. The Sunflower Student Movement occupied the Legislature for over a month. The STA and Cross-Strait Oversight Regulations remained stalled in the legislature. They probably will not move ahead before the next presidential election.

Last year was marked by the “black-hearted merchants” adulterated oil scandals. This year was marked by still more food safety scandals, including the rancid oil scandal and feed oil scandal. The public was alarmed. Housewives did not know what they should buy. Stores lost business. Society was in turmoil. The government's ineptitude became common knowledge. The rush to implement 12 year compulsory education also sparked intense controversy.

The heaviest blow last year was the nine in one county and municipal elections in late November. The KMT suffered an unprecedented defeat, the worst in history. The KMT political realm shrank from four cities and 11 counties before the election, to two cities and nine counties after the election. The DPP on the other hand, grew from two cities and four counties to four cities and nine counties. To cap it all off, pro-green Wen-Je Ko was elected Mayor of Taipei.

The defeat has left the KMT in its death throes. It now lacks the political endorsement and public support necessary to promote major reform. The president is a lame duck. Any attempts to improve cross-Strait relations will face greater obstacles than in the past. In fact, the defeat of the Kuomintang is more directly linked to the long-term economic downturn, widening wealth gap, and rising housing prices. But his slump in popularity may have a very negative impact on cross-Strait relations.

The world was not at peace during 2014. The biggest disturbance occurred in Ukraine. Pro-European and pro-Russian factions clashed over the future of the nation. Russia supported Eastern Ukrainian rebels and was accused of annexing Crimea by the US and Europe, who then imposed sanctions. The deterioration of relations between the two sides, has even been described as a "new Cold War."

The United States sought to suppress Russia. But on the global field of battle, a new trend appeared. The US finally withdrew its troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. America's troops were exhausted. America's citizens were powerless. America's economy was stalled. The public opposed another war, whether a civil war in the Ukraine, or a war with the emerging Islamic State terrorist organization. The US was willing only to take indirect measures, such as imposing sanctions, conducting air strikes, or providing military aid.

By contrast, the Chinese mainland's rapidly expanding political and economic strength enabled it to play an increasingly important role in the international arena. It could patrol the waters surrounding the Diaoyutai Islands. It could increase the area it laid claim to in the South China Sea. It could even promote a "one zone, one road" maritime and overland New Silk Road Development Plan. It could actively promote cooperation with the countries in the region, based on a comprehensive set of policies and strategies for the nation. Step by step, it expanded its power and affirmed its territorial sovereignty.

America's decline, coupled with the rise of mainland China
and increasing tensions between Russia and the West, impacted both global and East Asian geopolitics. They also foreshadow the new order. The global situation is changing. Taiwan cannot continue playing the role of the United States' “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in East Asia, in the deluded belief that this will enable Taiwan to protect itself. We must take into account the domestic political environment, geopolitical environment, and be willing to see the two sides of the Strait as part of one family. We must make dynamic adjustment to national strategy. Only then can we respond wisely to the rivalry between the US and the Mainland, and ensure that Taiwan benefits.

Clearly Mainland China will be an important locomotive for global economic growth. Economic development is the lifeblood of Taiwan. International competition is fierce. We cannot afford to bind ourselves hand and foot.

In fact, when it comes to cross-Strait economics, Taiwan's role has shrunk while those of others have expanded. Taiwan went from being first among the Asian Tigers to last by a large margin. Worse, growth momentum and market size cannot compare with the Chinese mainland. But we must not be discouraged. We must not close ourselves off, refuse to confront the competition, and oppose open communications. Doing so would only accelerate our decline. By looking to the Mainland, Taiwan can create new growth momentum. If we waste precious opportunities for national growth, that would be the greatest betrayal of ourselves as well as the next generation.

In 2015 Taiwan must make the right choice about cross-Strait relations

The situation may be dangerous, but we must not sell ourselves short. Taiwan has been poor before. It endured prolonged diplomatic ostracism. Yet it created a "Taiwan Miracle" and underwent a "quiet revolution." Taiwan style democracy may have defects. But we believe in time they can be remedied. We lack international political status. But we continue to tirelessly promote democracy. We continue to promote a free, open, and vibrant multi-cultural society. The human being is Taiwan's most valuable yet intangible asset.

The Mainland has implemented a different system. It will need to undergo long-term liberalization. Taiwan has the same language and culture as the Mainland. It can hold up a valuable mirror to the Mainland. Under a "two sides belong to one family" relationship, it can become an opposition party to the CCP. As long as Taiwan retains its sense of self-worth, it can contribute to the liberalization of the Mainland. The result will be beneficial not only to Taiwan's survival and development, it will also enhance the well-being of Chinese people on both sides of the Strait.

The year 2014 was indeed a tempest tossed year. But having experienced defeat, we must muster our wisdom and courage. We must recognize our own value amidst the wind and the rain. We must make the right choices, and create new opportunities for ourselves.

社論－承認2014的挫敗 創造2015的機會
2014年12月31日 04:10
本報訊

今晚就要送別2014，迎接2015年了。回顧過去這一年，實可謂危疑震撼、風波不斷，展望2015，面臨的是前所未有的考驗，台灣要擺脫陰霾，還是陷入衰微，端視我們能否重建國家方向的共識，然後團結向前。

2014對執政的馬政府與國民黨而言，毋寧是一場慘烈而痛苦的漫長折磨。原本被馬英九總統視為政績的服貿協議，居然引發強大民意疑慮，太陽花學運占據立法院月餘，以致於服貿及兩岸協議監督條例至今都卡在立法院動彈不得，可能到下次總統大選前都不會有進展。

接著，繼去年爆發黑心混合油事件後，今年更接連爆發了餿水油及飼料油的重大食安事件，民眾下箸不安，主婦採買茫然，店家損失慘重，社會怨聲載道，政府管理不彰自然成為眾矢之的。此外，倉促上路的12年國教，也引發了社會強烈爭議。

今年的最後一記重擊，則是11月底的九合一縣市長選舉，國民黨遭到自治史以來前所未有的慘敗，政治版圖從選前的4都11縣市萎縮到1都5縣，民進黨則由選前的2都4縣擴張為4都9縣市，外加台北市由親綠的柯文哲當選市長。

經此一敗，國民黨可謂奄奄一息，已缺乏足夠的政治背書與民意支持推動重大改革；而馬總統也陷入跛腳狀態，想要推動兩岸關係，將遭遇比過去更大的阻礙。國民黨敗選其實與經濟長期低迷、貧富差距擴大、房物價高漲有更直接的關連，但人氣暴跌卻很可能會對兩岸關係的推動造成負面影響。

環顧全球，2014年實在也不平靜。最大的一場風暴發生在烏克蘭，由於親歐親俄兩派爆發國家路線之爭，俄羅斯併吞克里米亞及支持烏東反叛，引發歐美制裁，雙方關係之惡化，甚至被形容為「新冷戰」。

美國雖力圖壓制俄羅斯，但在全球權力場域，卻出現明顯的消長現象。好不容易從伊拉克與阿富汗撤軍的美國，早已兵疲民困，在經濟不振、民意反感下，並不願意再捲入另一場戰爭，因此無論是對烏克蘭內戰，還是新興恐怖組織「伊斯蘭國」的肆虐，美國都只願採取制裁、空襲或軍援等間接手段。

相對的，中國大陸挾迅速擴張的政經實力，進一步在國際舞台取得更重要的角色。無論是在釣魚台周邊巡航的動作，抑或是在南海填海造地擴大島嶼面積，乃至於提出「一帶一路」海陸兩道新絲路發展計畫，積極推動與相關國家的合作關係，都是依據一套完整的國家政策與策略，按部就班地擴張勢力版圖並強化海洋主權地位。

美國的衰落，加上中國的崛起，以及俄羅斯與西方關係的尖銳化，在在衝擊著既有的全球及東亞地緣政治，也隱隱然為將來的新秩序埋下伏筆。而對於未來世局可能的變化，台灣不能幻想繼續扮演美國東亞不沉航母的角色自保，要兼顧國內政治生態、地緣政治客觀環境及兩岸一家親願念的實現，動態調整國家戰略，在美中兩強間作出巧因應，才能求取最大的國家利益。

很明顯的，未來全球經濟成長，中國大陸將是重要的火車頭，而經濟發展是台灣的生存命脈，在激烈的國際競爭中，我們沒有自我捆綁坐失生機的本錢。

事實上，這些年來，兩岸在經濟上我消彼長。台灣從過去的亞洲四小龍之首，到如今不但落後一大截，成長動能與市場規模更遠不及中國大陸。不過，我們不能灰心喪志，甚至畏縮自閉，拒絕面對競爭、反對開放交流，只會加速衰退。迎向大陸，台灣就能創造新的成長動能，如果我們虛耗了國家發展的寶貴生機，才是對我們自己、以及下一代最大的背叛。

2015年台灣在兩岸關係上必須做出正確的選擇。

局勢雖險惡，但不必妄自菲薄。台灣曾經貧窮，長期處於外交劣勢，卻打造了「台灣奇蹟」與「寧靜革命」，台式民主雖存在缺失，深信假以時日必可改善。我們在國際政治地位上有所不足，但持續不輟推動民主，建立自由開放的社會與蓬勃多元的文化，「人」已是台灣龐大豐富的無形資產。

大陸實行不同的制度，未來需要長期的開放過程，同文同種的台灣正是大陸所需要借鏡，在「兩岸一家親」的關係下，甚至可以是中共的反對黨。只要台灣能不斷淬煉自我價值，台灣就可以逐漸促成大陸的開放，其結果不僅有利於台灣生存發展，更將為兩岸全體中國人帶來更大的福祉。

2014確實是風雨不斷的一年，但歷經挫敗後，若能發揮智慧與勇氣，在風雨危疑中，認清自己的價值，做出正確的選擇，我們可以為自己開創全新的機會。