Hillary Will Not Change Cross-Strait Strategic Picture

Hillary Will Not Change Cross-Strait Strategic Picture
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 16, 2015

Executive Summary: No matter who becomes US president, Taiwan will no longer be able to rely on the United States to contain the Mainland. If anything, the Mainland may work with the US to deal with what they consider a peripheral issue. Taiwan's security and prosperity must not be overly dependent on the United States. In the end, we must find our own way.

Full Text Below:

As everyone expected, Hilary Clinton has finally announced her candidacy in the 2016 presidential race. Hillary has the necessary qualifications and financial backing, and may become the first female president in the history of the United States. But she also faces many difficult challenges. Her campaign may not be an easy one.

Hillary's candidacy is unique in the history of the United States. As first lady, she played the role of the good wife. But Hillary has extraordinary intellect. She is well versed in law and politics. She has an edge that she cannot hide and has no desire to hide. When her husband Bill Clinton was in the White House, she was an important advisor.  She promoted a health care reform bill. She knows how the two parties operate. After Bill Clinton stepped down, she began going her own way. In 2000, she was elected Senator from New York. She performed well. Six years later, she won reelection by an even larger margin.

Hillary had high hopes during the 2008 US presidential election. But she stumbled badly. During the Democratic Party primaries, she lost to African American Senator Barack Obama from Illinois. Following the election, Obama appointed her Secretary of State. As a result, she wrote a new page in history, as a First Lady with a second spring.

Hillary was diligent in her handling of international affairs. As Secretary of State, she flew nearly one million miles, visited 112 countries, and spent over 400 days on airplanes -- the most of any Secretary of State in the history of the United States. She often negotiated directly with the leaders of other nations. She has a full grasp of international affairs.

Today Hillary Clinton is making another run under more favorable conditions. She has however, encountered new difficulties. She appears to have no rivals within her own party. She will probably win the party nomination without much resistance. She also learned a lesson from past experience. The last time she emphasized herself: "I want to win." As a result, Obama won grassroots support and rode into the White House on an Internet whirlwind. This time she is taking a different approach. Her campaign ads are portraying her as a champion of the common man. She is now saying that "Americans have fought their way back from tough economic times. But the deck is still stacked in favor of those at the top. Everyday Americans need a champion, and I want to be that champion."

But Hillary's portfolio and financial resources clearly belong to someone at the top of the pyramid. They far exceed those of most of her opponents. The Clintons are fundraising experts. Since its inception in 2001, the Clinton Foundation has raised nearly 2 billion USD. It has plenty of cash with which to campaign.

Alas, Hillary's strengths are also her weaknesses, The Clinton Foundation has accepted contributions from foreign governments, subjecting it to much criticism. She and her husband Bill Clinton taking turns in the White House rubs many voters the wrong way. Does the United States really have no other candidates? Why are elections dominated by the Clinton and Bush political dynasties?

Hillary has a established a record in international diplomacy. But she is also haunted by ghosts. On September 11, 2012, the US Consulate in Benghazi, Libya, was attacked. The US Ambassador was killed. The Republican Party severely criticized Hillary and the State Department for negligence and dereliction. More recently, emailgate erupted. Apparently, during her four year term as Secretary of State, she never used an official State Department email address. Instead, she used her personal email account to deal with official matters. This provoked intense controversy. It may even violate the Federal Records Act. She received more than 60,000 emails as Secretary of State. Over 30,000 were private messages. All of these have been deleted. The remaining 30,000 messages have been forwarded to State Department officials.

Hillary Clinton said she did this out of convenience, and that doing so was not illegal. Were the messages deleted official in nature? The public has no way of knowing. Did they cover up the Benghazi incident? That too is impossible to know. A candidate for high office, a senior official with a wealth of political experience, dealt with problems in such a slapdash manner. No wonder the Republicans are in hot pursuit. This scandal probably has legs, and will probably have an adverse impact on Hillary's campaign.

But given the two parties' candidates, Hillary has a good chance of winning. If elected, she can at least can a running start on foreign affairs. She has addressed China policy and cross-Strait relations in the past. She has praised Taiwan's democracy. But she has also noted that the "one China policy" lies at the heart of US policy toward Taiwan and the Mainland. She hopes that Taiwan and the Mainland can get along, and that the ROC's sovereignty will not be threatened or destroyed.

In 2011 when she met with Mainland State Councilor Yang Jiechi, she said maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait was consistent with the strategic interests of the United States. She said the United States would like to see more cross-Strait interaction, to ensure trust and increase confidence.

In fact, US cross-Strait policy is influenced by the international environment. This, by nature ensure consistency. For example, the US wants to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait. It does not want trouble. It is less and less capable of suppressing the rise of China. It faces changes in the Asian Pacific strategic picture, but has no countermoves.  That is why it was unable to block membership in the AIIB. No matter who becomes US president, Taiwan will no longer be able to rely on the United States to contain the Mainland. If anything, the Mainland may work with the US to deal with what they consider a peripheral issue. Taiwan's security and prosperity must not be overly dependent on the United States. In the end, we must find our own way.

社論－不必期望希拉蕊改變兩岸格局
2015年04月16日 04:10 主筆室

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希拉蕊．柯林頓宣布角逐2016美國總統大選。（美聯社）
希拉蕊．柯林頓宣布角逐2016美國總統大選。（美聯社）

一如各方很久以來的預期，希拉蕊．柯林頓終於宣布角逐2016美國總統大選。就條件、資歷、財力等方面來說，希拉蕊確實有相當高的機率，能夠成為美國史上首位女總統，不過她也面對著諸多艱難挑戰，這場選戰未必好打。

希拉蕊參選，在美國史上真是特例，過去第一夫人扮演的都是溫柔賢內助的角色，但希拉蕊才智過人，法政學養俱佳，鋒芒藏不住，她也不想藏。隨著丈夫柯林頓入主白宮後，她一直是老公的重要策士，還曾力推健保改革法案，也因此熟悉府會兩黨運作。在柯林頓卸任後，她開始走自己的政治路，2000年贏得紐約州聯邦參議員選舉，問政表現沉穩亮眼，6年後更高票連任。

自視甚高的希拉蕊在2008年參與美國總統大選，卻跌了一大跤，民主黨內初選時，敗給來自伊利諾州的非裔參議員歐巴馬。歐巴馬當選後祭出奇招，邀請她出任國務卿，她因此又寫下第一夫人職場第二春的新歷史紀錄。

希拉蕊勤勉從公，為了斡旋國際事務，在國務卿任內總計飛行近百萬哩，造訪過112個國家，有超過400天是在飛機上度過，是美國史上出訪次數最多的國務卿，更曾直接與多國領袖懇談協商，對國際政治有充分的了解與掌握。

如今希拉蕊再度出馬，比上次增加了些有利條件，但也遭遇新的難關。目前看來，她在黨內應無對手，取得提名大概沒有問題。而且她也記取教訓，上次她的訴求是強調自我的「我要贏」，結果不敵歐巴馬從基層與網路掀起的旋風，這次她在宣布參選的影片中改走庶民路線，營造她和小老百姓站在一起的印象，她的訴求是：「美國民眾從艱難的經濟奮戰中走來，但仍是那些金字塔頂端的人占上風，民眾需要有人能為他們發聲，而我想成為那個鬥士」。

不過論希拉蕊的經歷和財力，都絕對屬於占上風的金字塔頂端，也遠遠超過大部分的競選對手。柯林頓夫婦一直是募款高手，柯林頓基金會自從2001年成立以來，已募得近20億美元，打起選戰來自然銀彈充沛。

不過希拉蕊強項之處，往往也藏著她的弱點，柯林頓基金會接受外國政府捐款，便受到不少批評。她和丈夫柯林頓輪流入主白宮，也有選民不以為然，覺得莫非美國沒人了，怎麼選舉就只見柯林頓和布希這兩大政治家族把持？

希拉蕊在國際外交雖有成績，但也有不少陰影。2012年9月11日美國在利比亞的班加西領事館遇襲，美駐利大使罹難，共和黨嚴厲批評希拉蕊及國務院輕忽警訊又因應不力。最近更爆發「電郵門」事件，原來她在擔任國務卿4年期間，並未開設國務院公務用的電子郵件信箱，全以私人電郵帳號處理公務，引發強烈爭議，甚至可能違反《聯邦檔案法》（Federal Records Act）。總計她在國務卿任內收到6萬多封郵件，其中3萬多是私人郵件，已經全刪，其餘3萬多公務電郵則轉交給國務院。

希拉蕊自稱她「貪圖方便，但絕無不法」，不過被刪掉的郵件到底有無涉及公務已無從追查，是否有掩蓋班加西事件因應失職則更不可考。一個有志大位、又有豐富政治經驗的高層官員，竟然行事如此鬆散輕怠，難怪被共和黨窮追猛打。這件事恐怕會一直延燒到選舉期間，對希拉蕊將有不利衝擊。

不過放眼美國兩黨諸多戰將，希拉蕊還是有相當贏面，如果她當選總統，至少對外交事務能夠立即上手。過去她曾多次談到中國政策與兩岸關係，除了肯定台灣的民主之外，也指出美國的「一個中國」政策核心是，希望中國大陸與台灣和平相處，不希望看到台灣的獨立自主性被威脅或破壞。

2011年她與中國大陸國務委員楊潔篪會面時指出，維繫台海和平穩定符合美國戰略利益，美國樂見兩岸保持更多的互動、互信與建立自信。

其實美國的兩岸政策在國際情勢的大環境下，先天有其一貫性，例如希望維持台海和平對話，不出亂子不惹麻煩，但又受制於愈來愈無法壓制的中國崛起，在亞太面臨新的變局，卻尚未有新的對策，因此才有對亞投行的阻攔無功。不管誰當美國總統，台灣在兩岸互動中能利用美國牽制中國的槓桿效應，恐怕會愈來愈少，反而可能在美中互動主軸中落於決策邊緣位置。台灣的安全與生機，不能再過於依賴美國，終究必須要自己找到出路。