Thursday, April 16, 2015

Tsai Ing-wen of the elephant off into the refrigerator

April 17, 2015 China Times

There is a joke Riddles, "How close to the elephant in the fridge?" The answer is four steps, first open the refrigerator door; the second is to find an elephant; the third is the elephant in the fridge; four are in the fridge Door locked up. Although it is a joke, but used the metaphor thrown Tsai "maintaining the status quo, said," there might be a marvelous place.

If we take the dispute between the two sides, as a possible cross-strait peace elephant trampled how shelve disputes and seek win-win situation, the elephant put into the refrigerator, no doubt those in power on both sides of the primary, but the DPP long-faire elephants stampeding undermine cross-strait relations. Tsai now thrown "status quo", indeed opened the refrigerator door, but this is only the first step in putting aside disputes and questions on both sides of the chain there are three functions: defining the elephant, the elephant in the refrigerator, the refrigerator door shut up This three power than a hard one.

With the 2016 election approaching, Tsai Ing-wen cross-strait policy will become increasingly blurred space is small, the internal face of the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Voices include questioning itself, including the United States concerned, "the United States and Taiwan" tripartite concept CCP cold pressure. Tsai latest declaration: "maintaining the status quo on both sides of the DPP handling cross-strait relations are the basic principles" rather than in the last empty statements, indeed relatively specific, constructive, is an improvement. However, long-term instability in the DPP cross-strait policy, the United States and Taiwan DPP independence and internal party program is still full of doubts, Tsai Ing-wen of the declaration can only be said to be slightly moist soil dry cracked earth, not enough to dry the solution.

To play a substantial utility, the second step, you must define the elephant Tsai, clear "status quo" What is? May 2004 when he was chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council said Tsai Ing-wen, "Taiwan-US tripartite" maintain cognitive status quo "is there is a gap, the gap for cognitive status quo, is whether we need to make the definition of the status quo." Phrase sharply revealed the key words, if the parties still flow to each side of the "status quo", the dispute will not stop, can not resolve the doubts Taichung Tsai Mei parties, then opened the refrigerator door did not mean to open.

The definition of the status quo, there are benchmarks of success can participate, is "no unification, no independence, no use of force." Ma Ying-jeou of the three no, although not perfect, there is lack of enthusiasm for the KMT needed Chu era of cross-strait relations may not be enough to deal with, but in the past eight years, there is no doubt the most uncompromising of the greatest common divisor of Taiwan, but also the United States You can accept the mainland may not be the greatest silence opposition. On literally, "no unification, no independence will not use force," no unification and no use of force will not oppose Tsai, The only solution is "not only" pro-independence even though Tsai burdened with the pressure, but "not only" can be achieved through the definition of space such reference Hung Chi-chang proposal to "not only" is defined as "not pursue de jure Taiwan independence", and so, at least to establish Tsai and Ma complete equalization of "three noes" literally, it can in order to continue, "Ma Ying-jeou has been established status quo definition. "

Even in essence, both cognitive three not particularly substantive meaning "not only" still differences, but old wine in new bottles three no, at least have the courage to show Tsai taken for cross-strait peace pace, the blue camp can only agree US optimistic, Continental nothing to say. Tsai only to face the dark green pro-independence rally, but she can still get the green camp moderates such as Hung Chi-chang and other Austrian aid, not in isolation, even if it is not the overall yield of the shoulders, how to make people believe her leadership Taiwan, which has the ability to maintain the "status quo of cross-strait relations and steady development"? If you really can not say Tsai, we must responsibly tell you that she's maintaining the status quo with Ma's "no unification, no independence, no use of force," the difference between what?

Once identified, the elephant, the elephant moved into third step refrigerator, complete shelve controversial. Tsai Ing-wen should define the post "status quo" documented and incorporated into political campaigns, and even the DPP's platform. And this, not only in form, must also be in action, that is, to show the general pattern followed by Tsai prospective rulers, prompting DPP legislator to cooperate with the KMT, DPP obstruct let be shelved The "cross-strait agreements oversight regulations" as soon as possible, such as the bill is passed, almost stalled cross-strait negotiations can continue, will not continue to make Taiwan into a spin crisis.

The final step is to put the refrigerator door, so the idea of ​​freezing the status quo fixed, so the two sides can shelve disputes continued long maintained. This also means that, Tsai want to Lin Yi-hsiung, Chen, Huang Guochang, Lin Feifan different pro-independence generation, etc., whether or speculative ideal pro-independence mass pro-independence issue is not kidnapping, clear message not to go back, and this is meaningful, long way in the "status quo."

Fourth step off the elephant, the easiest step is to open the refrigerator door, but second and third step and the fourth step is the key. Of course, Tsai Ing-wen, the next steps the more the more difficult, but it is a challenge to deal with the problem of leadership Tsai. We would like to see Tsai dished "to maintain the status quo," but if you think that the refrigerator door is opened, the elephant will automatically into the refrigerator, it is not too stupid or too naive.

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