Tripartite Alliance Can Stabilize the Taiwan Strait, Eric Chu Can Reverse Course

Tripartite Alliance Can Stabilize the Taiwan Strait, Eric Chu Can Reverse Course
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 20, 2015

Executive Summary: No matter how dire the situation, the KMT must not surrender prematurely. Tsai Ing-wen is hardly invulnerable. Tsai Ing-wen has momentum. But not because people like her. She has momentum only because the KMT cannot articulate why they ought to prefer the KMT. As long as one remains determined, focused, and full of fight, as long as one offers a vision and takes action, the outcome of the 2016 election will not be preordained.

Full Text Below:

Eric Chu has announced that he will not run for president in 2016. Most people think he is motivated by one of two reasons. Reason one is that he feels bound by his promise to serve out his term as New Taipei City mayor. Reason two is that he is afraid he will lose. If reason one is his real motive, then Eric Chu's priorities are seriously out of order. Putting on a show by keeping his promise to New Taipei City, would sacrifice continuity in cross-Strait relations. The KMT must fulfill a far more important promise to check DPP power.

A well-known story from the Warring States Period involves one Wei Sheng, an inhabitant of the Lu Kingdom, who promised to meet a woman under a bridge. The woman failed to show, but the waters gradually rose. Wei Sheng, being a man of his word, refused to leave. He clung to a bridge pier and eventually drowned. The story spawned the idiom "as trustworthy as Wei Sheng". The story can be construed as an exhortation to remain true to one's word even if it means death. In this sense, the story contains an inspirational element. But it can also be construed as an example of blind obstinacy.

Leave aside the question of whether the KMT will implode. Tsai Ing-wen has proposed a new cross-Strait policy. But DPP cross-Strait policy remains reactionary at its core. DPP behavior remains impetuous and erratic. Tsai Ing-wen's campaign committee has been fighting over the Vice Presidential nomination. This has led to tensions among sect leaders and under the table maneuvering. Green Camp local leaders have also evinced unseemly triumphalism. Since Tsai Ing-wen secured the DPP party nomination, her poll numbers have hovered at approximately 45%. Tsai Ing-wen still faces internal resistance to her 2016 presidential bid. If Eric Chu chooses to run, he may not lose. Besides, if Eric Chu is elected president and diligently works on behalf of Taiwan as a whole, he would actually be fulfilling his commitment to New Taipei City even more effectively.

Perhaps Eric Chu believes he need not be the KMT candidate. But as matters stand, Eric Chu is the KMT's heaviest hitter. If a leader is cowardly, his followers will be timid. Even if Eric Chu goes to bat, a Kuomintang presidency remains a long shot. But if Eric Chu does not go to bat, a Kuomintang presidency is an impossibility. If no suitable candidates run, a nine in one elections "negative coat tails effect" will recurr. The KMT will lose even the legislative elections. Never mind the rise and fall of the Kuomintang as a party. If the legislature lacks adequate oversight, how can that possibly be good for Taiwan?

Eric Chu promised to make a full report on the general election on May 16. Eric Chu should use the coming month to engage in soul-searching. He should clear his mind of preconceptions and choose to fulfill a greater commitment over a lesser commitment.

Now consider the fear of losing. The nine in one election debacle left the KMT at an overwhelming disadvantage for 2016. Everyone's eyes are now on Eric Chu. He is their last hope. But even if Eric Chu chooses to run, that may not reverse the KMT's fortunes. The KMT must fling open the doors and make bold decisions. Only then does it stand a chance of pulling off an election upset.

The entry point for such bold decisions is cross-Strait relations. This is the key to Taiwan's survival and prosperity. It is also the Achilles Heel haunting Tsai Ing-wen's current political momentum. The KMT must be willing to make highly effective, highly visible, highly shocking cross-Strait policy proposals. Only that will demonstrate why the KMT can maintain mutually beneficial cross-Strait peace, and why Tsai Ing-wen cannot.

The KMT should emulate Lien Chan, who courageously broke through a DPP seige to visit the Mainland and reach an accord between the KMT and the CCP. The KMT should promote a three way relationship between Taipei, Beijing, and Washington, and a new relationship between Taipei and Beijing. The best time to do so is May 3 in Shanghai, at the KMT-CCP forum. If the Mainland can arrange a Chu Xi meeting, the KMT and CCP can create a new cross-Strait relationship.

Specifically, the Mainland should implement Xi Jinping's "two sides, one family" and "cross-Strait symbiosis", making them forces that support Taiwan's stability and prosperity. For example, the CCP should form a transparent alliance with the KMT. It should participate in equitable and substantive talks with the KMT that are favorable to Taiwan. Such talks should include a coordination and cooperation framework to deal with political issues and implement policy measures. Such an alliance should be enough to avoid political baggage, including green camp allegations that Eric Chu "accepted an imperial decree" or "sold out Taiwan". If this political goal can be achieved, the demonization, alienation and uglification of the Mainland can be eliminated in one fell swoop.

The public on Taiwan has long distrusted the Mainland. Therefore such an alliance cannot be a purely bilateral relationship between the KMT and the CCP. A third party, trusted by the public on Taiwan, such as the United States, must take part. Over the past decade, the United States has ceased to consider Mainland China as an enemy, or even a strategic competitor. Instead, the Mainland is seen as a constructive strategic partner. The two countries may have different political systems. But they also share economic and even strategic interests. Therefore the strategic partnership can be a constructive one. The key is trust. That means the US must trust Mainland China's peaceful rise. That trust is important not just for the United States. It is also important for the Mainland.

It is on this point that Taiwan can play an important role. Taiwan can help build three way trust. Taiwan and the Mainland are linked by language, heredity, and history. Taiwan has inherited Chinese culture uncontaminated by Marxism-Leninism-Maoism. Taiwan and the United States share the same belief in democracy and economic systems. This link makes Taiwan a bridge between the Mainland and the United States. At the core of this alliance of ideals, is a shared interest in peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. This alliance of ideals is increasingly stable and increasinly opposed to the DPP's fragile and risky cross-Strait policy. This is the KMT's biggest advantage in the elections.

Lastly, no matter how dire the situation, the KMT must not surrender prematurely. Tsai Ing-wen is hardly invulnerable. Tsai Ing-wen has momentum. But not because people like her. She has momentum only because the KMT cannot articulate why they ought to prefer the KMT. As long as one remains determined, focused, and full of fight, as long as one offers a vision and takes action, the outcome of the 2016 election will not be preordained.

三方聯盟穩定台海 朱立倫可逆轉

2015年04月20日 中國時報

朱立倫宣布不選2016年，一般解讀有兩個因素，一是新北做滿的誠信之結難解；二是怕輸。如果是第一個因素，我們認為朱立倫顛倒了輕重、誤判了緩急。表面信守做好做滿新北市長的小諾，卻失去讓兩岸和平發展政策延續、讓國民黨成為有力政黨平衡政局的大信。

有一個家喻戶曉的典故，戰國時有一位魯國人尾生，與女子約於橋下，女子沒來，水流漸漸高漲，尾生卻為守信而不肯離去，終於抱橋柱而亡。這個故事衍生出「尾生之信」的成語，可解為堅守信用至死不渝，故事固然有令人感佩的一面，但也可解讀為「固執不化的控固力」。

先不講國民黨會不會倒？蔡英文雖然提出新的兩岸論述，但民進黨兩岸政策核心理念堅定保守、行為卻躁進不安的本質並未改變，近來蔡英文的競選班底與副總統提名人選的爭奪，造成派系山頭關係緊張，檯面下動作不斷，綠營地方諸侯亦呈現驕兵之姿。加上蔡英文確定獲民進黨提名後，至今民調支持度仍在45%上下徘徊，蔡英文的2016總統路並非沒有內憂，朱立倫若決心參選，並非絕無勝算。況且，如果朱立倫選上總統，只要真心為台灣造福，才是實踐對新北市「做好」的大信。

或許朱立倫認為「選總統沒有非誰不可」，但擺在眼前的就是，國民黨目前的最強棒就是朱立倫，一怯眾懦，朱立倫出戰，國民黨總統之路仍九死一生，朱立倫不戰，國民黨總統之路很可能十死無生，如果最後推了不適合人選上陣，重蹈九合一選舉母雞壓死小雞的覆轍，那麼，國民黨連立委選舉都會輸得傾家蕩產，國民黨一黨興衰或不足論，但國會沒有足夠監督力道，對台灣會是好事嗎？

對於大選布局，朱立倫說會在5月16日做出完整報告，我們認為朱立倫應用這一個月的時間好好沉澱、歸零思考，在大信與小諾之間，做出明智的選擇。

再來看所謂的「怕輸」。九合一大敗後，2016年國民黨的總統選情確實落入超級劣勢，萬方矚目的一線生機，是朱立倫披掛上陣，然而就算朱上陣，仍不足以扳轉劣勢，必須輔以大開大闔的大決策，才有機會撼動目前不利的選舉板塊。

大決策的切入點還是兩岸，既是台灣生存發展的重中之重，也是目前氣勢正殷的蔡英文唯一的軟肋，國民黨必須在兩岸上，有極具實效性、極高能見度、極度震撼性的大決策，才能凸顯為什麼國民黨執政才可以維持兩岸和平互利發展，而蔡英文不行。

我們建議，國民黨應效法當年連戰勇闖民進黨群眾包圍陣，毅然訪問大陸發展國共關係的前例，發展與美中三方締結理念大聯盟，開創並展現全新的兩岸格局。最可利用的時機是即將於5月3日在上海登場的國共論壇。大陸如能共同創造朱習會的條件，如能實現當可讓國共與兩岸關係進入一個新的境界與階段。

具體而言，我們建議大陸，可研究如何落實習近平「兩岸一家親」與「兩岸生命共同體」理念，使之成為支持台灣安定繁榮的正面力量。譬如，願意和國民黨共同締結透明的國共聯盟關係、與國民黨對等商談實質有利台灣，包括處理政治問題的協調合作框架，並付諸行動。這樣應該足以避免讓朱立倫登陸成為政治包袱，被綠營以「領聖旨」、「出賣台灣」等汙名化標籤大扣帽子。倘若這個政治目標可以達成，就有機會一舉把大陸在台灣被「敵化、仇化與醜化」的三原罪洗脫。

基於台灣內部長期對大陸的不信任氛圍，這樣的聯盟無法單單靠國民黨與陸方雙邊建立，必須加入受台灣社會信任的第三方，也就是美國。10年來，美國已不再視中國為敵，也不是單純的戰略競爭國，而是把大陸視為建設性戰略夥伴，但由於兩國政治體制不同，經濟乃至戰略利益仍有伏流，這個戰略夥伴能否發揮建設性效果，關鍵在於信任關係，也就是要讓中國大陸的和平崛起被美國視為可信任的崛起，這不僅對美國重要，對大陸也重要。

在這一點，其實台灣可以扮演重要角色，幫助建立台美中三方信任循環，台灣一方面與大陸擁有同文同種的血緣與歷史連結，更承續著去馬列毛思想的純淨中華文化。另一方面，台灣在政治體制上有著和美國一樣的民主信仰與經濟制度，這讓台灣成為一個可以連結美中的重要橋梁。這個理念聯盟，核心是一個共同的利益，就是台海的和平與穩定。這個理念聯盟的力量愈穩定，也就愈反襯民進黨兩岸政策的脆弱性與危險性，而這正是國民黨在選舉劣勢中最大的優勢。

最後，即便局面不利，國民黨也不應過早悲觀，蔡英文也並非有著不破的金鐘罩，蔡英文的聲勢，不是來自於民眾喜歡她，而是國民黨說不出讓民眾支持的理由。一旦人選確定、戰力集中、提出願景、拿出行動，2016大選的勝負輸贏，還在未定之天。