Hung Hsiu-chu: Firm Up Support in South Before Visiting Washington

Hung Hsiu-chu: Firm Up Support in South Before Visiting Washington
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 24, 2015

Executive Summary: Hung Hsiu-chu will be representing the KMT in the 2016 general election, pending ratification during next month's KMT party congress. Meanwhile, issues such as organizational deployment, campaign strategy, intraparty harmony, whether to visit the US, and the coat tails effect, have followed one after another. Criticism by rivals and pundits has intensified. Under the circumstances, visiting the US should not be Hung Hsiu-chu's first priority. Her first priority should be planning her campaign strategy and cultivating voter support south of the Cho-shui Creek.

Full Text Below:

Hung Hsiu-chu will be representing the KMT in the 2016 general election, pending ratification during next month's KMT party congress. Meanwhile, issues such as organizational deployment, campaign strategy, intraparty harmony, whether to visit the US, and the coat tails effect, have followed one after another. Criticism by rivals and pundits has intensified. Under the circumstances, visiting the US should not be Hung Hsiu-chu's first priority. Her first priority should be planning her campaign strategy and cultivating voter support south of the Cho-shui Creek.

In 2011, Tsai Ing-wen took part in the presidential election. Having served as party chairman, vice president, and MAC chairperson, she had a good understanding of public policy and felt very much at home. By contrast, Hung Hsiu-chu has just stepped on her path to the presidency. Her policy platform has yet to be sorted out. She has yet to develop contacts and increase her local level exposure. Not surprisingly, the Hung campaign is still somewhat disorganized. Can she get up to speed, get in step, and make up for her deficiencies, ASAP? That is the question.

Hung Hsiu-chu got a late start. She is also a dark horse. Therefore she cannot wage a conventional trench warfare campaign like those waged in the past by Lien Chan or Ma Ying-jeou. She must rely on guerrilla tactics to succeed. Tsai Ing-wen sees herself as a shoo-in. She hopes to coast to victory, merely through rote repetition of her policy rhetoric. Her demeanor is smug. She goes through the motions. She even contradicts herself. She leaves people with the impression she is a "virtual candidate" who is not quite real. The Hung camp should exploit these green camp inconsistencies. The Hung camp should give the Tsai camp a sharp slap in the face. If the Hung camp can show how weak "Content Free Tsai" really is, it should be able to rapidly make inroads.

Alas, guerrilla warfare has never been the KMT's strong suit. The blue camp has long been inept at such offensive and defensive tactics. It is conservative, bland, and self-destructive. Therefore responsibility for carrying out these tasks must not be turned over to traditional KMT think tanks, or party leaders. Instead they must be entrusted to the "best and brightest" minds outside traditional channels. Only then can they expose the green camp's lack of substance. In short, Hung Hsiu-chu is an unorthodox candidate. To break out in the six months remaining, she must adopt unorthodox tactics. She must be neither too rigid nor too scattered. The think tanks should play a supplementary role, by providing flanking support. They must not become the masters.

Hung Hsiu-chu qualified as a primary candidate with flying colors. This dark horse candidate restored blue camp morale. Unfortunately over the past week, she has encountered considerable resistance within her own party. There has been much grinding of gears. She was probably speaking her mind when she said that if Wang Jin-pyng wants to return to the Legislative Yuan he should run for office at the district level. But her comment was a bit too blunt, and somewhat out of bounds. It was also not conducive to any prospective Hung/Wang ticket. Should Hung visit the US? That is something she should have discussed with the party leadership, then arrived at a decision. She did not need to publicly inform Eric Chu "I will arrive at my own decision on that". Even if she disagreed with the party leadership's arrangements, there was no need to leave outsiders with the impression of intraparty friction.

A greater challenge for Hung Hsiu-chu involves her policy path. Is it pluralistic enough to win the support of the greatest number of voters? She is currently well positioned on cross-Strait and economic and energy policies. Her positions on these have attracted support from traditional blue camp voters. Her frank and straightforward manner also demonstrates an intensity traditionally lacking in blue camp leaders. But once she has consolidated her support among deep blue voters, she must win the support of pale blue and swing voters. She must win the support of younger voters. Hung Hsiu-chu must offer greater diversity and creativity. She must prove she is able to lead Taiwan towards a sounder, brighter future. She must not dwell on only a few key points.

In fact, Hung Hsiu-chu's family was a victim of the White Terror. It was classified as a "category four impoverished household". Her gradual rise to her current stature, is a Horatio Alger success story. It symbolizes political reconciliation and renunciation of hate. This is something she can dwell on more. The green camp is constantly attempting to use McCarthyite tactics against her. It has even resorted to claims that "A vote for Hung Hsiu-chu is a vote for Xi Jinping". This reveals the harsh political climate on Taiwan. It shows that the Hung camp must emphasize strategic balance. It must not allow itself to be pinned down on any single issue.

Tsai Ing-wen visited the United States because her cross-Strait policy path could not be trusted. That made her "job interview" with Washington essential. Hung Hsiu-chu does not have this problem. Tsai Ing-wen has just concluded her visit to the US. Hung Hsiu-chu has no need to make such a trip. It would not help her election campaign, unless of course the US accorded her an even more lavish reception. Hung Hsiu-chu should now concentrate on her domestic campaign, especially in central and southern Taiwan, where the blue camp needs an election boost. She can create a coat tails effect. She can win local KMT party trust. She can allow her "little pepper" charisma work its charm in central and southern Taiwan.

Election campaigns are complex and multi-faceted undertakings. Hung Hsiu-chu must know how to form alliances and how to launch attacks. Her vision need not be confined to a single corner of the room. She need not offend others with her statements. She must now go south, past Cho-shui Creek, and consolidate her support in central and southern Taiwan. If afterwards, she still has enough energy leftover, it will not be too late to talk about visiting the United States.

聯合／洪秀柱先固濁水溪南 再談訪美
2015-06-24 02:11:41 聯合報 聯合報社論

洪秀柱代表國民黨出征二○一六大選，資格尚待下月的黨代表大會追認；然而，組織部署、選戰策略、黨內磨合、是否訪美、母雞帶小雞等問題已紛至沓來，對手和外界的批評抹黑也逐漸加劇。在這種情況下，是否訪美恐非洪秀柱眼前的優先事項，先將選戰大局與策略部署妥當，並設法展現揮師跨越濁水溪的氣勢，才是她的當務之急。

蔡英文二○一一年即投入總統大選，加上先前黨主席、副院長、陸委會等歷練，她的政策思維及公開應對都有一定程度的練達，顯得駕輕就熟。相形之下，洪秀柱的總統之路甫才起步，不僅有許多政見架構需要整理，在各路人脈及地方能見度的開拓上也需要費心經營；所以，洪營目前的腳步有些凌亂，並非意外之事。關鍵就在，洪秀柱是否能夠及時調整步伐，加速擴大自己的優勢，並儘快彌補自己的不足。

正因為起步較晚，而且是意外出線，因此洪秀柱不能再像過去的連戰、馬英九一樣打傳統型的陣地戰，而必須靠議題型的突擊戰術取勝，才能易於有所斬獲。原因是，蔡英文似乎自覺勝券在握，在政策論述及政見攻防上都只求平穩度過，有時顯得躊躇滿志或虛應故事，甚至矛盾百出，給人「虛而不實」的印象。如果洪營能抓住綠營這些言不及義之處，給予迎頭痛擊，暴露「空心蔡」的虛弱，必能帶來快速加分的效果。

問題在，「突擊戰」一向不是國民黨人的長項。過去藍營對攻防議題的選擇，常常不夠精準，或流於保守、無趣，甚至演成自傷。因此，這類提供議題突擊火力的任務，可能無法全然交給國民黨智庫或黨部的傳統心智來進行，而必須向外藉助各路戰友的金頭腦共同獻策，以突破綠營的務虛戰法。簡言之，洪秀柱既然是一個「非典型」的參選者，要在僅剩半年的時間內突圍脫穎而出，必須採取「非典型」的搶攻戰略，不必太過拘泥，當然也不能漫無章法。而智庫的作用，則在補充洪秀柱政見之骨肉，並隨時提供側翼的論戰支援，不宜反客為主。

洪秀柱高民調「破磚」後，以黑馬之姿有效重新凝聚了藍營的士氣。但不可否認，一周來她和黨內各方的磨合，也不斷傳出齒輪咬合差錯的嘎嘎雜音。其中，諸如她在受訪時直言王金平重回立法院之路就是「參選區域立委」，這應是真心話，卻有欠委婉，也嫌撈過界，同時不利於邀王為己輔選。再如，對於要不要訪美，她大可和黨中央討論過各種可能性再作取捨，而無需對朱立倫宣稱的安排公開回稱「以我說的為準」。就算不同意黨中央安排，也沒有必要留給外界雙方磨合欠佳的印象吧！

洪秀柱更大的挑戰，在於她的路線選擇、政策方針是否足夠寬廣多元，而能吸引最大可能的多數選民支持。目前看來，她在兩岸政策、經濟能源等政策上的定位，皆頗能吸引傳統藍軍支持者的認同，她的坦率直白，也展現了一般藍營領導人缺乏的力度。然而，在穩住了深藍的核心地帶後，若要進一步開拓淺藍及中間地帶選民票源，乃至爭取年輕世代的支持，洪秀柱都必須提出更多元、更開創的主張，證明自己是可以帶領台灣走向更健康、更光明之路的人選，而不能在少數定點一直打轉。

事實上，以洪秀柱的白色恐怖受難家屬、四級貧戶之家的成長背景，能一步一腳印走到今天，她本身就是一個令人鼓舞的成功範例，也表現了政治和解、放下仇恨的正向力量，她可以對此加強著墨。然而，綠營人士不斷對她「抹紅」，甚至說出「投洪秀柱就是投習近平」的仇恨言論；這除反映台灣政治風氣之惡劣，也顯示洪營在戰略上必須更重視平衡，不要被牽制在單一議題上難以脫身。

事實上，正因為蔡英文的兩岸路線不受到信任，所以她訪美爭取華府信賴是必要的面試之旅，洪秀柱則無此問題。同時，也正因為蔡英文剛剛訪美歸來，洪秀柱大可避開此一無助造勢的行程，除非美方能提供更高規格待遇。就大局看，洪秀柱目前應將全力放在國內的衝刺造勢，尤其是藍軍選情有待提振的中南部，設法營造她「母雞帶小雞」的氣勢，爭取黨內本土派對她的信任，也讓小辣椒的直白魅力在中南部發酵。

選戰經緯萬端，洪秀柱要懂得結盟、善攻之道，視野不必侷限一隅，發言不必出口傷人。當下，應該先行南下跨越濁水溪固盤，行有餘力，再談赴美訪問也不遲。