Tsai Ing-wen's Transformation: Real or Fake?

Tsai Ing-wen's Transformation: Real or Fake?
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 23, 2015

Executive Summary: A political transformation may take place on Taiwan in 2016. The DPP may adopt an entirely new stance on cross-Strait policy and national identity. Unless it does so, the public on Taiwan will pay a high price, one assuredly not worth any returns. It will also add up to a disaster for the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen.

Full Text Below:

A political transformation may take place on Taiwan in 2016. The DPP may adopt an entirely new stance on cross-Strait policy and national identity. Unless it does so, the public on Taiwan will pay a high price, one assuredly not worth any returns. It will also add up to a disaster for the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen.

We have repeatedly warned that in the face of certain changes, the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen must choose between being "traitors to Taiwan independence" and "sinners against Taiwan". If they fail to choose, if they refuse to change their stance on national identity and cross-Strait policy, whether Tsai Ing-wen wins in 2016 will not matter. The result will be a disaster for the DPP as a party, and for Tsai Ing-wen as an individual.

First assume that they win. Beijing says that if Tsai Ing-wen refuses to recognize the 1992 consensus, and refuses to oppose Taiwan independence, then "the earth will tremble and progress will be impossible". It has made clear that if Tsai Ing-wen refuses to accept the 1992 consensus, the channels established between the Taiwan Affairs Office and the MAC will be shut down. Are the changes made by Tsai Ing-wen mere show? Is her current transformation mere pretense? If so, an election victory will merely lead to political and economic chaos. Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP may win an election, but bring disaster down upon Taiwan.

Now assume that they lose. Tsai Ing-wen has clearly begun a transformation. She now speaks of "maintaining the cross-Strait status quo", of "promoting cross-Strait relations under the constitutional framework of the Republic of China", of "seeking common ground and shelving differences under the 1992 consensus". These positions all indicate transformation. These positions flatly contradict Taiwan independence rhetoric. Moreover, Tsai Ing-wen's rhetoric has received the tacit endorsement of Taiwan independence elements. Taiwan independence elements know that enabling Tsai Ing-wen to win the election means they must bite their tongues.

So has Tsai Ing-wen undergone genuine transformation? Or are she and Taiwan independence elements merely putting on a show? The green camp has yet to reach a consensus. Do Taiwan independence elements see Tsai Ing-wen's current moves as mere campaign trickery? Is that why they are silent? If Tsai Ing-wen is victorious, that will be one thing. But what if she is defeated? She will have rejected Taiwan independence for naught. In that case, will she ever escape Taiwan independence movement condemnation? Would this not amount to a disaster for both the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen?

Therefore, under the circumstances, Tsai Ing-wen has no choice but to undergo genuine transformation. She cannot afford to pretend. First, she must use genuine transformation to build trust with Beijing. Second, she must extract a commitment from Taiwan independence elements to do the same. She may even need to draft a new "party resolution", in black and white, regardless of whether she wins or loses, or whether Taiwan independence elements turn on her. Third, she must be honest with both blue and green camp voters. Blue camp voters must believe her, and green camp voters must emulate her.

Tsai Ing-wen cannot make an end run around the Republic of China. DPP members used to turn their back to the Republic of China. They used the ROC to backdoor listing their would-be "Republic of Taiwan". They must now turn to face the Republic of China. When Chen Shui-bian was in power, he flip-flooped between his "five noes" and "one country on each side", again and again. But the world has changed, Tsai Ing-wen's only choice is genuine transformation. She cannot lie to Taiwan independence elements. She cannot lie to blue and green camp voters. She cannot lie to Washington. She cannot lie to Beijing. She cannot lie to the Republic of China. She cannot lie to the ROC Constitution.

Tsai Ing-wen knows that Taiwan independence is a blind alley. That is why she has affirmed the ROC Constitution. That is the right course of action. Affirming the ROC Constitution means affirming a "constitutional one China", "one country, two regions", and "one country, different interpretations". That is why Tsai Ing-wen must also accept the 1992 consensus, and "one China, different interpretations". One China, different interpretations is the essence of the 1992 consensus. It is the most strategically valuable aspect of the ROC Constitution. Affirming the 1992 consensus involves risk. But unless Tsai Ing-wen assumes this risk, Taiwan independence elements will run amok, and she will forfeit "one China, different interpretations", the last line of defense. That would leave Taiwan in no man's land. Therefore Tsai Ing-wen must understand and accept the 1992 consensus, under the framework of the ROC Constitution. She must accept "one China, different interpretations". Only that constitutes genuine transformation.

Tsai Ing-wen has gone from rejecting the 1992 consensus to affirming the Republic of China Constitution. She has gone from total darkness to partial light. But either way she cannot escape. Affirming the constitution, a "constitutional one China", "one country, two regions", and "one China, different interpretations" all remain within the scope of the law and the constitution. Tsai Ing-wen must eventually return to a "constitutional one China" and "one China, different interpretations". Otherwise, she has not undergone genuine transformation.

Taiwan independence elements say Taiwan independence can support Taiwan's democracy, sovereignty, and confront the People's Republic of China. But Tsai Ing-wen must use the Republic of China to support Taiwan's democracy, the sovereignty of the ROC, and engage in coopetition with the PRC.

The arrow has left the bow. Tsai Ing-wen has changed. There is no turning back. Genuine transformation is the only way out. The consequences of fake transformation would be disastrous.

不歸路：蔡英文的真假轉身
2015-06-23 聯合報              

二○一六年的這一場可能發生的台灣政治變局，應當以民進黨在國家認同與兩岸政策上徹底轉型為結局。否則，台灣人民為這場變局將付出的代價，就太不值得了；且對民進黨及蔡英文而言，更將是一場災禍。

我們多次諍告，面對此一變局，民進黨及蔡英文，必須在「台獨叛徒」及「台灣罪人」兩種角色之間作一抉擇。倘無此等決志，而在國家認同及兩岸政策上不能徹底轉型，則無論蔡英文在二○一六勝選或落敗，皆將是民進黨及蔡英文的一場災禍。

先說如果勝選。北京稱，倘蔡英文不回到九二共識，又不表明反對台獨的立場，將有「地動山搖／寸步難行」的後果。並已明言，若蔡英文不正面接受九二共識，則國台辦及陸委會的法制化管道即告封閉。因而，蔡英文此時的動作，如果只是「假轉身」，但實際上卻是「未轉型」，屆時倘勝選重返執政，恐將陷於政經全局失控的局面，則蔡英文及民進黨雖贏得了大選，卻可能毀了台灣，豈非一場災禍？

再說如果敗選。毫無疑問的，蔡英文已經開始轉身。她說：「維持兩岸現狀」、「在中華民國憲政體制下，推動兩岸關係」，及「九二共識／求同存異」，皆是轉身；因為，如果這些論述皆要追根究柢下去，不啻已經完全顛覆了所有的台獨主張。而且，蔡英文的這一套論述，也獲得了獨派以當下的鴉雀無聲給予支持。因為，獨派亦知，若要贏得選舉，就必須噤聲。

但是，蔡英文究竟是「真轉身」，或只是與獨派再作一次自欺欺人的「假轉身」，這在綠營中顯然尚未獲得共識。獨派或許只將蔡英文此時的動作看成選舉的騙術（因此才噤聲），則蔡英文若勝選還則罷了，如果敗選，她的「去獨」豈能逃得過獨派的反攻倒算？屆時豈不也是民進黨及蔡英文的一場災禍？

是以，處此情勢，蔡英文只能真轉身，不可假轉身。一、用真轉身與北京建立互信。二、用真轉身逼出獨派對轉型的真承諾，甚至要見諸「新決議文」之類的白紙黑字，則未來不論執政或落選，或有可能使獨派再無反悔反噬的餘地。三、用真轉身來誠實面對藍綠選民，使藍的信任其轉身，綠的跟隨其轉身。

對蔡英文來說，中華民國是繞不過去的。所謂轉身，就是民進黨過去背對中華民國，只欲「借殼上市」，如今必須轉身面對中華民國。陳水扁的那個時代，還有在「四不一沒有」及「一邊一國」翻來覆去的空間；但世局國情今非昔比，蔡英文唯一的抉擇應當是「真轉身／真轉型」，她不能騙獨派、不能騙藍綠選民、不能騙美國、不能騙北京、不能騙中華民國，也不能騙中華民國憲法。

蔡英文已知台獨無出路，所以她回到中華民國憲法，是對的。回到中華民國憲法，邏輯上就是要回到「憲法一中／一國兩區／一中各表」。也因此，蔡英文既回到中華民國憲法，就必須正面接受「九二共識／一中各表」，因為「一中各表」正是九二共識對台灣最重要的內涵，也是中華民國憲法最重要的戰略價值。蔡英文不正面接受九二共識的風險，不止是使台獨首當其衝，也將失去「一中各表」的最後防線，那將使台灣陷入絕境。所以，蔡英文的轉身，恐須轉至「在中華民國憲法下，理解並接受九二共識」（亦即「一中各表」）的地步，才算是前文說的追根究柢，也才算是完全到位的真正轉身。

如今，蔡英文從「否定九二共識」的布袋裡鑽出來，卻鑽進了「中華民國憲法」的大網裡。布袋中固然暗無天日，但由袋入網，看似有了穿透性，卻實際上還是被網繩纏繞，無所逃遁。回歸憲法後，「憲法一中／一國兩區／一中各表」，皆是「法網恢恢／憲網恢恢」，以致蔡英文最後仍須回到「憲法一中／一中各表」。否則，她的轉身就不是真轉身。

獨派自稱，台獨可以支撐台灣的「民主／主體性／對抗中華人民共和國」；但蔡英文的轉身，必須做到用中華民國來支撐台灣的「民主／主體性／與中華人民共和國的競合關係」。

開弓沒有回頭箭。蔡英文正在轉身，這是一條不歸路。真轉身才有出路，假轉身的後果不堪設想。