Hung Hsiu-chu must have the Courage to visit the Mainland

Hung Hsiu-chu must have the Courage to visit the Mainland
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 9, 2015

Executive Summary: Since Hung Hsiu-chu announced her candidacy for the KMT presidential primaries, support for her has soared. Mainstream newspaper and television polls show public support swiftly rising. This has forced the Kuomintang to adopt a polling method more favorable to Hung Hsiu-chu. In fact, Hung Hsiu-chu's support on the Internet has also risen rapidly. She will soon become Tsai Ing-wen's most powerful opponent. It appears the 2016 race will be between two women, one of which is pro-US, and the other of which is pro-Mainland China. 

Full Text Below:

Since Hung Hsiu-chu announced her candidacy for the KMT presidential primaries, support for her has soared. Mainstream newspaper and television polls show public support swiftly rising. This has forced the Kuomintang to adopt a polling method more favorable to Hung Hsiu-chu. In fact, Hung Hsiu-chu's support on the Internet has also risen rapidly. She will soon become Tsai Ing-wen's most powerful opponent. It appears the 2016 race will be between two women, one of which is pro-US, and the other of which is pro-Mainland China. 

This is evident from supporter activity on Google Trends and Facebook. On June 8 Google Trends examined the month from May 8 to June 6. Before May 14, support for Hung Hsiu-chu was virtually non-existent. Most of the time, Tsai Ing-wen led, followed by Eric Chu and Wang Jin-pyng. But after May 14, support for Hung Hsiu-chu skyrocketed. On May 18, Hung lept to number one, ahead of Tsai Ing-wen. Between May 17 and June 6, Hung Hsiu-chu and Tsai Ing-wen repeatedly swapped the lead. Hung ranked first for nine days, more than Tsai, who ranked first for eight days. Only when Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the US became the focus of news reports, between June 3 and June 6, did Tsai Ing-wen regain her lead over Hung Hsiu-chu for four days.

Supporter activity on Facebook shows that June 4 Hung Hsiu-chu's friends numbered 54,584, lower than Tsai Ing-wen's 1,316,276. This was because Hung got a very late start, and did not have enough time to accumulate supporters. But between May 29 and June 4, Hung's "likes" grew 29.7%. Tsai's grew only 0.3%. Currently the number of Tsai Ing-wen's friends still outnumber Hung's. But Hung Hsiu-chu is closing in fast. Tsai Ing-wen received the most likes for her May 29 comment about a young girl at Wen Hua Elementary School who died of injuries sustained. Hung Hsiu-chu received the most likes for her June 1 comment "I will take responsibility. I will give it my all. We will win".

Time and tide create heroes. Google Trends and Facebook data show that Hung Hsiu-chu's political rallies and commentary have had a palpable effect. Her visibility has soared. It is no exaggeration to say that Hung Hsiu-chu has replicated Ko Wen-che's election miracle. But visibility is not support. Hung Hsiu-chu's challenge will be to turn her visibility into support. 

Hung Hsiu-chu's key to success is the big picture in East Asian and cross-Strait relations. The United States is returning to Asia in an attempt to contain the rise of Mainland China. Yesterday the Want Daily published an editorial entitled, "US Proxy War Moves Toward [Mainland] China". It noted that US East Asia strategy puts Taiwan right in the crossfire. Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the White House and the State Department established new precedents. The US allowed the ROC Chief of Staff to attend the swearing in ceremony for the Commander of the US Pacific Fleet. The US made a show of patting Tsai Ing-wen on the head, just so the Mainland could see. If Tsai Ing-wen is elected, she and the DPP will pander to the US and become its pawn in its attempt to contain Mainland China. The Democratic Progressive Party hopes that by doing this it can win US support.

In the past, Sino-US interactions have been coordinated. But the Mainland has actively been promoting its One Belt, One Road and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The United States feels threatened by Mainland China's rise. Add to this frequent clashes over the South China Sea, and the gradual rise of the "China threat theory" within the US. Sino-US friction has turned Taiwan into a battlefield.

When Tsai Ing-wen visited the US, she vowed to uphold "the constitutional framework of the Republic of China". She remains too fuzzy and non-specific. But she is now more specific than when she promised to "maintain the status quo". This has allowed the US to save face and respond with goodwill. Did the US roll out the red carpet for Tsai Ing-wen because she made all the right sounds? Or did the US use Tsai Ing-wen to send Mainland China a message? Did the United States decide to roll out the red carpet for Tsai in advance? Did Tsai Ing-wen tailor her remarks to help the United States, so that the United States could respond positively?

Tsai Ing-wen's altered rhetoric was pragmatic. But it also surrendered the nation's sovereignty and turned it into a pawn of a major power. Her rhetoric was cautious and defensive. It was utterly deficient in boldness and risk-taking. In this, Tsai Ing-wen is no match for Hung Hsiu-chu. This is why Hung Hsiu-chu could go from the B List of political candidates, surpass Eric Chu and Wang Jin-pyng, then catch up with A List political candidate Tsai Ing-wen in a single month. Whether the issue is one China, different interpretations or a cross-strait peace agreement, Hung Hsiu-chu is unafraid of being tarred with a red brush. The KMT has long been vacillating and pusillanimous. Hung is not. She has the guts to defend blue camp core values. Internally this distinguishes her from KMT cowardice. Externally this distinguishes her from Tsai Ing-wen's vacuousness. This distinguishes her in two ways, and allows her to offer a way out of a political dead end.

Consider the big picture for Taiwan and cross-Strait relations. Ma Ying-jeou's "no [immediate] reunification, no Taiwan independence, no use of force" has been KMT policy for the past seven years. It has improved cross-Strait relations. But its usefulness is now at an end. Ma's three noes lack vision. They cannot catalyze KMT transformation. They cannot help Taiwan overcome its economic difficulties.

This is why KMT rhetoric has led to defeat upon defeat -- because it lacks vision and fails to touch people's hearts. Chen Chang-wen hit the nail on the head when he said, "Taiwan independence is a belief. But opposition to Taiwan independence is not. Belief is persuasive. Belief is powerful. When belief and non-belief clash, belief is more powerful than non-belief."

A loss of conviction, a loss of faith, has led to the KMT's defeat upon defeat in nearly all public policy debates. This has undermined the KMT's mandate to rule. It has also deprived the Mainland and Taiwan of countless opportunities for shared prosperity. Kuomintang A List political stars are powerless to ensure these opportunites. Hung Hsiu-chu seeks the presidency. She must have the courage to break new ground. She must have the vision to fling open doors. She must visit the Mainland. She must offer a new vision. She must propose an effective national strategy and a synergistic cross-Strait policy.

Taiwan must acknowledge its Chinese cultural heritage. It must combine this with the Mainland's economic momentum, then enter the global market. Only then will the public on Taiwan not be reduced to pawns of the major powers. Only then can they hold their heads high, and seek their own destiny. This is the real meaning of Hung Hsiu-chu's candidacy for president

Hung Hsiu-chu has vowed eternal loyalty to the KMT. She must be loyal to KMT ideals and KMT supporters, not KMT big shots such as Ma, Chu, Wang, and Wu. We hope Hung Hsiu-chu will cast aside Kuomintang spinelessness and communicate directly with the 97% of the public who are neither KMT nor DPP members.

洪秀柱應勇敢訪問大陸

2015年06月09日 中國時報

洪秀柱宣布角逐國民黨總統初選後聲勢鵲起，不但主流媒體的報紙電視民調支持度快速攀升，迫使國民黨改採較有利洪秀柱的民調模式。其實洪秀柱的網路熱度也正在快速攀升中，將成為蔡英文最強有力的對手。看來2016打一場兩位女性候選人的親美與親中路線選戰，似已逐漸成型。

從Google Trends的熱度走勢及臉書的粉絲活動都可以看見此一趨勢。Google Trends6月8日查詢過去近1個月（5月8日到6月6日）的熱度趨勢顯示，5月14日之前洪秀柱的熱度一直是0，大多時間蔡英文最高，朱立倫次之，王金平居3。但5月14日後洪秀柱熱度暴升，5月18日甚至竄升為第1，超過蔡英文。大體而言5月17日到6月6日，洪秀柱與蔡英文呈現熱度拉鋸，洪有9天居第1，還高過蔡英文的8天。直到蔡英文訪美新聞成為焦點，才又在6月3到6月6日連4天熱度超越洪秀柱。

從臉書粉絲活動相關數據觀察，6月4日洪秀柱粉絲數為54584，低於蔡英文1316276，這是因為洪起步非常晚，累積不足，但從5月29到6月4日洪的「讚」成長達29.7%，蔡只有0.3%，顯見洪後勢可畏。就粉絲參與度觀察，蔡英文的粉絲參與度仍是最高的，洪秀柱則緊追在後。近期蔡英文最被認同的主題是「5/29文化國小女童受傷不治的關懷發文」，洪秀柱則是6/1「我承擔，我努力，我們會勝利」的文章最受認同。

時勢造英雄，Google Trends與臉書的數據結果顯示，洪的造勢與論述確實出現效果，能見度與受關注度都呈現飛升現象。如果我們預測洪秀柱可能是台灣選舉史上另一個創造奇蹟的柯文哲，已不能說離譜。但能見度不是支持度，如何把能見度轉為支持度，會是洪秀柱下一個挑戰。

洪秀柱成敗關鍵在兩岸及東亞大局，美國企圖重返亞洲圍堵中國崛起，旺報昨天社評〈美國代理人戰爭步步進逼中國〉已指出美國的東亞大戰略，台灣置身其中不能倖免。這次蔡英文訪美不但破例進入白宮與國務院，美方更釋出台灣參謀總長參加美軍太平洋總司令交接典禮的訊息，美方對蔡友善的動作顯然是做給大陸看的。顯示蔡當選後，將帶領民進黨走親美路線，企圖作美國圍堵中國的棋子，換取美國支持民進黨執政。

這與過去一段時間中美的互動有連動關係，大陸積極推動一帶一路與亞投行等大國布局，美國感受到中國崛起的壓力，加上雙方在南海問題上頻頻放話，美國內部「中國威脅論」漸漸抬頭。中美磨擦，台灣就成為角力場。

蔡英文此行訪美，提出「中華民國憲政體制」說，雖然仍有內涵不足、方法闕如的模糊問題，但已經比「維持現狀」相對具體。這一點，也讓美國的「善意回應」有了著力點，可謂給了美國面子。但與其說是因為蔡英文說了什麼讓美方滿意，所以美方給了蔡高規格待遇與正面回應，不如反過來說是，為了向大陸傳遞手上有牌的訊息，美方先決定給蔡英文高規格待遇，蔡英文再研究要說什麼才能幫美方找台階，讓美方正面回應「師出有名」。

只是蔡英文的「修正」論述雖有其務實性，卻也顯示失去主體性、淪為大國棋子的困境，她的訪美論述充滿著防守性的謹小慎微，少了開拓性的宏觀大器。這一點是蔡英文不如洪秀柱的地方，也可以說，這也是洪秀柱以政壇B咖，在1個月內超朱趕王，直追蔡英文等明星A咖的重要原因。因為，不論在「一中同表」或者「兩岸和平協定」的倡議上，洪秀柱不怕被扣紅帽，打破了國民黨的瞻前顧後的慣性虛矯，勇於堅守藍軍理念，這不僅對內區隔了國民黨的怯懦，更對外區隔了蔡英文的空洞，形成雙區隔效果，終能在死局中開出活路。

從台灣發展與兩岸大局觀，馬英九的不統不獨不武在過去7年主導了國民黨的核心思路，帶來兩岸關係的改善，但其效果已達於極致，連三個消極的「不」，也欠缺格局，不足以成為領導國民黨大步轉型的大論述，也不足以成為帶動台灣突破經濟困局的大戰略。

這也是國民黨的論述戰節節敗退的最主要原因，因為找不到遠景，就找不到感動人心的論述。陳長文就曾一針見血地點出：「台獨是信仰，但反台獨不是；信仰產生說服、信仰產生力量，當信仰與非信仰對決，信仰的力量會大於非信仰。」

「論述失落」、「信仰不具」，使得國民黨幾乎在所有公共政策戰場都陷入潰敗，不但掏空了國民黨的執政根基，也貽誤了台灣本可與中國大陸雙贏共榮的契機。這契機，國民黨的A咖既無力保守，洪秀柱有志於總統大位，就應勇敢開創，秉持一貫大開大闔的個性與思維理路，透過訪問大陸，提出更宏觀前瞻、有效可行的國家大方略、兩岸新主張，帶動兩岸良性循環。

台灣要有以中華文化的深度、台灣的人文厚度，加上大陸豐沛的經濟動能，進而以全球市場為縱橫疆域，這才是台灣人不當大國棋子，昂首走自己命運之路的宏圖大策，這也是洪秀柱參選總統的最大意義。

洪秀柱曾說她永遠忠於國民黨，她效忠的應該是國民黨的創黨理念與國民黨支持者，而不是馬朱王吳等國民黨大咖，我們期待洪秀柱跳脫國民黨虛矯的醬缸，直接與97%非國民黨、非民進黨黨員的大眾對話。