Wednesday, October 19, 2016

President Tsai Should Give Her Blessing to the Hung Xi Summit

President Tsai Should Give Her Blessing to the Hung Xi Summit
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC) 
A Translation 
October 20, 2016

Executive Summary: The theme of the KMT CCP Forum has been changed. What was a trade and cultural forum, is now a peace forum. This proves that the Mainland's Taiwan policy has not changed. It still seeks to promote peaceful cross-Strait relations. President Tsai said she hoped the Mainland would demonstrate greater goodwill toward Taiwan. The Mainland has demonstrated goodwill toward Taiwan, through practical action. The Mainland has not endorsed the DPP's cross-Strait policy. Nevertheless it remains willing to carry on exchanges with Taiwan. It remains willing to ensure cross-Strait peace. By taking advantage of this opportunity, the KMT will make a contribution to cross-Strait peace. This merits President Tsai's careful consideration.

Full Text Below:

The Democratic Progressive Party now exercises total control over the Taiwan Region of China. Yet the Mainland has decided to keep communication channels between the KMT and the CCP open. Xi Jinping, one of the five most powerful figures in the world, will meet with the relatively powerless Kuomintang and its relatively powerless chairman, Hung Hsiu-chu. This may be a negative development for the DPP as a party, but a positive signal for the DPP government. The reason is simple. Official cross-Strait channels of communication have been severed. But private sector contacts are not following suit. Many problems remain and must be resolved. If the government cannot fulfill this role, the relative strength of the Mainland means that Taiwanese will be the ones to suffer. From another perspective, the KMT and CCP are helping the DPP government. President Tsai needs to understand this.

In 2005, the DPP vehemently opposed Lien Chan's visit to the Mainland. The following year, it opposed the KMT CCP Forum, and the Lien Hu Summit. History shows that when the DPP is in power, its attempts to block the opposition KMT were ineffectual. Lien Chan's visit to the Mainland was a success. He reached five points of agreement with the Mainland authorities. He established a new, peaceful relationship with the Mainland. Over the past decade, cross-Strait relations, economic and trade cooperation, and Taiwan's participation in international activities, have all improved as a result of the consultations held back then. Taiwan as a whole has benefited. The KMT may be in the opposition. But it remains in a position to improve cross-Strait relations and benefit Taiwan.

The DPP has habitually denounced the KMT for “pandering to China [sic] and selling out Taiwan”. It has opposed many KMT moves to the bitter end. The DPP is now the ruling party, yet it persists in disparaging the Hung Xi Summit. The summit may break the deadlock in cross-Strait relations and benefit Taiwan, but the DPP does not care. The DPP is no longer an opposition party. As the ruling party, it must view cross-Strait issues from the interests of people as a whole. It must view the role played by the KMT from a positive angle. Taiwan society is dogged by blue vs. green confrontation, particularly in such areas as national identity and Taiwan independence. Nevertheless both parties have a responsibility to the 23 million people on Taiwan, regardless of where their partisan loyalties may lie. They must fulfill their respective roles, for the benefit of Taiwan and for the sake of cross-Strait peace.

Most people on Taiwan still want to maintain the status quo. They do want to move too quickly toward reunification. Nor do they want to incite cross-Strait conflict over Taiwan independence. President Tsai has not make any provocations with her cross-Strait policy. But neither has she offered any way to break the cross-Strait deadlock. She is determined to resist Mainland pressure, to the bitter end. But she cannot change the cross-Strait power differential. Economics, trade, diplomacy, and other factors will further increase the pressure on Taiwan. The Tsai government will face even greater challenges. The struggle between the CCP and the DPP is an unequal one. The KMT can help provide balance. Through friendly interaction with the Mainland, it can reduce cross-Strait tensions. It can reduce social divisions on Taiwan that result from cross-Strait tensions. It can reduce Mainland pressure on Taiwan society, and enable Mainland policies to benefit Taiwan. For Taiwan, this equals KMT DPP cooperation. It enables the KMT to acquire more maneuvering room for the DPP.

President Tsai has set forth her Four Noes Principle. But it remains mired at the level of political proclamations. Mutual trust with the Mainland is non-existent. Communication channels have been cut. Therefore, the above-mentioned proclamations cannot be implemented. They cannot become part of cross-Strait interaction. Interaction between the KMT and the Mainland is now the most effective channel for cross-Strait communication. Can the DPP set aside partisan power struggles? Can it refrain from blocking KMT efforts on behalf of cross-Strait communications? If it can, Taiwan as a whole will have more bargaining chips when dealing with the Mainland, and the public on Taiwan will benefit more from improved cross-Strait relations.

If the KMT interaction with the Mainland can benefit Taiwan, if it can ensure cross-Strait peace, its interactions will become an example for the DPP to emulate. KMT interaction can alert the DPP to other options in cross-Strait relations, and dissuade it from continuing down a blind alley. The will of the people is as changeable as running water. President Tsai must appreciate the peoples' desire for peace. The KMT is working toward that end. Tsai must not undermine cross-Strait relations. The KMT is the opposition party. It is the minority party in the legislature. It cannot implement the results of negotiations with the Mainland as easily as it did in the past. That will require DPP government cooperation, and will reveal how the DPP government thinks. Can President Tsai put the well-being of the public on Taiwan first? If she can, she must support the KMT CCP Conference, enabling it to benefit the public on Taiwan.

The theme of the KMT CCP Forum has been changed. What was a trade and cultural forum, is now a peace forum. This proves that the Mainland's Taiwan policy has not changed. It still seeks to promote peaceful cross-Strait relations. President Tsai said she hoped the Mainland would demonstrate greater goodwill toward Taiwan. The Mainland has demonstrated goodwill toward Taiwan, through practical action. The Mainland has not endorsed the DPP's cross-Strait policy. Nevertheless it remains willing to carry on exchanges with Taiwan. It remains willing to ensure cross-Strait peace. By taking advantage of this opportunity, the KMT will make a contribution to cross-Strait peace. This merits President Tsai's careful consideration.

蔡總統應對洪習會樂觀其成
2016/10/20 中國時報

民進黨全面執政後,大陸仍然決定維繫國共溝通平台,全球最有權力人物排名前5名的習近平也將與弱勢國民黨的弱勢主席洪秀柱會談。對民進黨而言,可能是負面事件;對民進黨政府而言,卻可能是正面訊號。理由很淺顯,兩岸官方聯繫機制停擺,民間互動熱度卻不會隨之降低,從中衍生的諸多問題需要解決,政府若不能扮演好這個角色,以兩岸實力對比關係,吃虧的會是台灣與台灣人。換個角度看,這是國共在幫助民進黨政府,蔡總統應該正確認知。

民進黨2005年曾激烈反對連戰登陸,次年也反對國共論壇、反對連胡會談。歷史經驗顯示,民進黨當年大權在握,窮洪荒之力阻撓反對,並未達到任何效果,連戰還是成功登陸,並與大陸達成5項共同願景,從此確立兩岸關係和平發展的新局。兩岸關係10年來,舉凡經貿合作、國際空間的開拓等等,都建立在當時的協商成果之上,台灣從中受益。顯然,國民黨即便身處在野,仍然可以為台灣、為兩岸關係發展發揮正面作用。

長久以來,民進黨習慣於將國民黨斥為親中賣台,對國民黨的諸多作為,也都反對到底,即便已身處執政地位,看待洪習會仍充滿貶低之意,對洪習會可能為台灣利益創造的契機,對突破兩岸僵局可能發揮的作用卻視而未見。民進黨畢竟不同於過往的在野地位,既然已經成為執政黨,就應該從全民利益角度看待兩岸問題,更應該學會用正面的態度來審視國民黨從中扮演的角色。雖然台灣社會內部藍綠對立,特別是在國族認同和統獨立場上立場殊異,但兩黨都有責任維護台灣2300萬人民的最大利益,無論是國民黨還是民進黨都可在兩岸關係中扮演各自的角色,共同為台灣謀利益、為兩岸促和平。

具體而言,台灣社會的主流民意仍然是維持現狀,既不希望過度傾向統一,也不願意因為台獨招致兩岸衝突。蔡總統的兩岸政策基調雖是不挑釁,但也沒有提出更積極進取的主張來突破兩岸僵局,面對大陸的壓力雖然有決心力抗到底,卻不可能改變兩岸實力對比的差距,一旦大陸在經貿、外交等領域進一步加大壓力,蔡政府無疑將面臨更大考驗。在民共弱雞博弈過程中,國民黨可以從中扮演平衡的角色,透過與大陸的友善互動,一方面有助於緩和社會內部因兩岸緊張可能造成的對峙衝突,一方面也有助於化解大陸對台灣可能的壓力,使其對台政策重點多放在惠台之上。站在台灣的立場來看,這等於國民黨與民進黨的一種分進合擊,國民黨也可以為民進黨爭取迴旋空間。

現在蔡總統確立的新四不原則,還都停留在立場宣示層面,苦於與大陸沒有互信,聯繫溝通管道也都中斷,因而無法將上述宣示落實到兩岸互動的實務中,國民黨與大陸的互動也就成為現在兩岸關係中最有效的交流平台。若民進黨能夠拋開政黨鬥爭思維,在兩岸問題上至少不對國民黨橫加阻撓,那麼台灣作為一個整體,在面對大陸時,將有更大的談判籌碼,台灣人民也將從兩岸關係的進展中獲得更多好處。

國民黨若能通過與大陸的互動為台灣爭取更多利益,特別是為兩岸和平發展創造更廣闊的空間,也可以給民進黨帶來示範效果,使其意識到兩岸關係發展的多元選項,從而避免一意孤行。民意如流水,總是強調民意的蔡總統應該意識到台灣民眾渴望和平、不希望兩岸關係倒退的意願,國民黨正在為此努力。當然,國民黨現在畢竟是在野黨,在國會中亦處於少數,其與大陸協商的諸項成果若要落實,自然不像過去那樣方便,需要民進黨政府的配合。這將考驗民進黨政府的心胸,若蔡總統能以全台灣民眾的福祉為念,那就應該幫助國共會談獲得成果,為台灣民眾謀福利。

這次國共論壇的主題由過去的經貿文化變為和平發展,證明大陸對台政策基調並未改變,仍然是以推動兩岸和平發展為職志。蔡總統總說希望大陸多給一些善意,大陸此番也是以實際行動向台灣展示善意,即便民進黨政府的兩岸政策並未得到大陸的認可,但大陸仍有誠意和善意與台灣繼續開展交流,並共同維護和平發展的局面。藉此次洪習會的契機,國民黨也將為兩岸和平做出新的貢獻,這一層深意也值得蔡總統審慎思之。

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