China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
October 1, 2016
Executive Summary: President Tsai has been in office less than six months. Cross-Strait relations have once again turned hostile. This worries people concerned about cross-Strait relations. We devoutly hope President Tsai will fulfill the pledges she made during her election campaign, and prove that she has the ability to deal with cross-Strait issues. She must not return to the Chen Shui-bian era, and fan the flames of cross-Strait conflict. That would not be a blessing for the people of Taiwan.
Full Text Below:
On the 30th anniversary of the Democratic Progressive Party, President Tsai Ing-wen, in her capacity as party chairman, published an open letter to party members. She reaffirmed her determination to implement reform. But she also talked tough on cross-Strait relations, provoking grave concern. She declared her intention to "resist pressure from China", referring to the Mainland as “China” instead of "Mainland China", the way she did when the DPP was in the opposition. She apparently changed her non-provocative, low-keyed style.
The results of such an approach are predictable. Upon being shut out of the ICAO conference, the presidential spokesman began referring to the Mainland as "China". Clearly the DPP government secretly resents the increasing pressure applied by the Mainland over the past six months. As the DPP sees it, Tsai Ying-wen's inaugural address and low-keyed follow-up, were expressions of goodwill toward the Mainland, but were not reciprocated. For the Tsai government, the resentment felt may be even greater. Pressure from Taiwan independence elements within the party has been relentless over the past six months. They have spread rumors to incite public discontent. They have has even revived demands for membership in the United Nations and the passage of constitutional amendments. President Tsai has been careful in dealing with the Mainland. But she must also appease party insiders. Her dilemma is obvious. Her strongly worded open letter to DPP party members reflected her need to respond to political pressure from within the party.
Closer scrutiny of Chairman Tsai's tough talk however, shows she has not broken away from existing policy. Consider the policy implications behind the hard-line phrases. She said, "We must resist pressure from China and develop relations with other nations, normal economic relations". This is entirely consistent with her May 20 inaugural address, which advocated cooperation with democratic nations, diversified economic and trade relations, and the New Southern Strategy. In other words, this is merely a reaffirmation of existing DPP thinking. This confirms that the above-mentioned policy is a well-considered strategic choice. Observers expect the DPP to return to the Ma era policy path. President Tsai's tough talk about fighting back is to some extent, merely a response to Mainland pressure. She wants the Mainland to know that the Tsai government is not going to yield to Mainland pressure and make compromises. Her stance and the Mainland's stance are poles apart. Finding common ground will not be easy.
The lessons of the Chen era remain fresh in Tsai's memory. Chen claimed that he expressed goodwill toward the Mainland, but the Mainland's tardy response forced him to take a hard line. Unfortunately such a hardline approach is a Pandora's Box. Once opened, it becomes difficult to close. It becomes an excuse for formerly contained Taiwan independence forces within the party to run rampant. What's worse, such a hardline approach merely provokes even harsher responses from the Mainland, leading to a downward spiral in cross-Strait relations. It is clearly not the right approach to cross-Straits relations. We hope that President Tsai is aware of the risks of from past experience, and will not proceed down this rocky path.
In her open letter, President Tsai reiterated the value of democracy. This is of course provides important backing for Taiwan when facing the Mainland. But President Tsai must also acknowledge that the public has expressed obvious dissatisfaction with her cross-Strait policy. They think cross-Strait relations have regressed. President Tsai cannot simply invoke democratic values as a tactic to deal with the Mainland. She must acknowledge that public opinion is the ultimate test of her own policies. She must fulfill the pledges made during her May 20 inaugural address. She assured people she was capable of dealing with cross-Strait issues, that she would remain in communications with the Mainland, and would maintain the cross-Strait status quo during her term. Obviously the decline in Mainland tourism and Mainland student enrollment has been counterproductive. Taiwan's participation in international activities is now limited, and proves that cross-Strait relations under President Tsai have deteriorated. The deterioration was not, as the DPP government alleged, due to the Mainland's political framework. It was the result of Tsai government changes to policies in place under the Ma government, and the Tsai government's evasive attitude on cross-Strait relations.
The Mainland has its own principles and policy measures. The DPP government should not dwell exclusively on the Mainland's obligation to respect its needs, while ignoring the Mainland's feelings. The DPP government should seek opportunities for cooperation between the two sides, consistent with Mainland policy. If President Tsai truly respects the people's opinion, she will listen to their hopes for cross-Strait relations, and take practical measures to improve them. The Mainland is concerned about the 1992 Consensus. She must offer a meaningful response. When confronted with pressure from Taiwan independence forces, she must use political means to pacify them. She must not allow them to become an obstacle to improved cross-Strait relations.
President Tsai has been in office less than six months. Cross-Strait relations have once again turned hostile. This worries people concerned about cross-Strait relations. We devoutly hope President Tsai will fulfill the pledges she made during her election campaign, and prove that she has the ability to deal with cross-Strait issues. She must not return to the Chen Shui-bian era, and fan the flames of cross-Strait conflict. That would not be a blessing for the people of Taiwan.
蔡總統別忘了陳水扁的教訓
2016年10月01日 中國時報
民進黨30周年黨慶，蔡英文總統以黨主席身分發表給黨員的公開信，重申改革的理念與決心之餘，更針對兩岸問題發表強硬的談話，引發各界關注。她宣稱要「力抗中國壓力」，且一改過去言必稱「中國大陸」，恢復在野時期以「中國」來稱呼對岸，似已改變之前不挑釁、不說重話的低調作風。
這種作法其實已有端倪，在被ICAO拒於門外後，總統府發言人即以「中國」相稱。一詞之差，顯示民進黨政府開始對大陸半年來不斷升高壓力的作法心生怨懟。在民進黨人看來，無論蔡英文就職演說，還是後續的低調以對，都是在向大陸釋放善意，無奈得不到大陸的善意回應。對蔡政府來說，其委屈可能更大，因為黨內獨派的壓力最近半年從未停歇，不僅放話製造輿論壓力，更逕自推動加入聯合國和重啟憲改行動，蔡總統小心應對大陸之際，還要拿出精力安撫黨內壓力，其左支右絀的困境可見一斑。這封針對民進黨黨員的公開信措辭如此強硬，恐怕也有回應黨內壓力的政治需要。
當然，細究強硬措辭背後的政策意涵，不難發現蔡主席並未跳脫既有的政策基調，「力抗中國壓力，發展與其他國家的關係；要擺脫對中國的依賴，形塑一個健康正常的經濟關係」，其實這說法完全可以對應520就職演說中有關推動與各民主國家的合作，以及經貿領域的分散市場和新南向政策。換言之，這不過是對民進黨執政思路的一次重申，也說明民進黨的上述政策是經過深思熟慮的戰略抉擇，要期待其重回馬政府時代的政策方向，恐怕難有結果。不僅如此，蔡總統的此番強硬回擊，某種程度上也是回敬大陸的壓力測試，讓大陸感受到蔡政府的原則堅持，這也更加說明她不會因為大陸不斷的壓力測試而選擇讓步，她與大陸的原則立場幾乎南轅北轍，要找到雙方的交集恐怕並不容易。
但即便如此，扁政府時代的教訓仍然在提醒著蔡總統，當年阿扁也是自認為向大陸釋放善意，卻遲遲得不到大陸的回應，才轉而採取強硬態度。只是這種強硬有如潘朵拉的魔盒，一旦開啟就很難輕易收場，因為這等於變相助長了黨內獨派的聲勢，讓原本處於壓抑狀態的台獨主張甚囂塵上。更嚴重的是，這種強硬態度並不會讓大陸屈服，反而只會讓大陸以更加強硬的態度回應，兩岸敵意螺旋上升的格局也正是在這種情勢下形成。從這個角度看，以強硬對強硬的作法顯然不是兩岸關係的正確處理方式，我們希望蔡總統能夠從過去的經驗教訓中意識到這種做法的風險與危害，切不可輕易走上強硬之路。
蔡總統在公開信中多次強調民主的價值，這當然是台灣面對大陸時的重要後盾，但蔡總統也應該注意的是，現在的民意已經清楚表達對她兩岸政策的不滿，也有至少3成民眾認為兩岸關係已經倒退。蔡總統不能只是將民主價值作為應對大陸的策略手段，而更應該將民意視為檢驗自己政策的標準，如此才能真正意識到自己在520就職演說中相關承諾的重要性。她曾向人民保證，自己有處理兩岸問題的能力，也會與大陸保持溝通互動，兩岸現狀也會在她任內得以維繫。顯然事與願違，陸客和陸生減少，台灣的國際參與限縮，在在證明兩岸關係在蔡總統任內已經出現倒退。倒退並非如民進黨政府所指摘，是因為大陸預設政治框架，而是自己改變了馬政府時期的政策，在兩岸關係定位問題上採取模糊和迴避的態度。
大陸也有自己的原則和政策步調，民進黨政府不該只談大陸尊重自己的需要，而不顧對方的感受。相反地，民進黨政府應該根據大陸的政策來尋找雙方合作的契機。若蔡總統真的尊重民意，那就應該傾聽人民對兩岸關係向前發展的企盼，採取切實辦法來推進兩岸關係的改善，針對大陸關切的九二共識，也應該提出具有實質意義的回應方案。面對獨派壓力，更要善用政治手段來平衡，勿使其成為兩岸關係改善的障礙。
蔡總統上任不到半年，兩岸關係再度出現敵意上升風險，這無疑讓關心兩岸關係的人們深感憂慮，誠摯期盼蔡總統能夠實踐競選期間的承諾，證明自己有能力處理兩岸問題，而不是如陳水扁時代，又擺盪回到兩岸烽火連天的局面，如此當然不是台灣人民之福。
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