Economic Experts and Taiwan's Policy Path

Economic Experts and Taiwan's Policy Path
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
October 25, 2012

Summary: American economists Thomas Sargent and Christopher A. Sims have been jointly awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics for their empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy. Sargent was recently interviewed by the United Daily News Economic Times. Sims met with members of the public today. People on Taiwan are actively seeking a response to their economic hardships. These experts have arrived at just the right time. They are expected to revive exploration and discussion of economic theory.

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American economists Thomas Sargent and Christopher A. Sims have been jointly awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics for their empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy. Sargent was recently interviewed by the United Daily News Economic Times. Sims met with members of the public today. People on Taiwan are actively seeking a response to their economic hardships. These experts have arrived at just the right time. They are expected to revive exploration and discussion of economic theory.

Sims' most important contribution was to the methodology of economics. His Vector Autoregression, or VAR, uses biochemical variables to confirm the causal relationship between variables. He claims he can reduce over-reliance on hypothetical assumptions by using data derived from the causal relationship between economic policies. VAR also explains how the economy is affected by temporary changes in economic policy and other factors. Sims received the prize for an important reason. His method better clarifies cause and effect. It is not limited to a discussion of the relevance of policy. His concept is important to statistical science. More importantly, governments can use his concepts in the formulation of policy. They can use them to accurately judge the interaction between a wide range of variables. They can use them to modify their regulatory policies according to economic development and anticipated targets. They can use them to alter the content of their policy according to a changing economic situation. Only then can policies be implemented smoothly and achieve the desired results.

Now apply these theoretical observations to our own situation. Take tecently released economic data. As we approach the end of the third quarter, we are finally witnessing the dawn of an economic recovery. Exports have grown 10.4%. We have emerged from several months of recession. This year export orders have ceased to decline and increased 1.9%. The domestic economy suffered as a result of poor fundamentals. Government officials were finally able to breath a sigh of relief. But the 2011 starting base was relatively low. Has the economy really recovered? That remains to be seen. The government's recent economic stimulus package has not produced perceptible results. Faced with this situation, the government should carefully examine the content of its policies and the reasons for public disappointment. It should think about how to amend them or supplement them. It should further integrate its administrative team. It should enable fiscal, monetary, educational, and labor policies to complement each other. It should strengthen its economic stimulus package. The government seems to think it has done enough. It seems to think that the reason the public fails to perceive the improvement is insufficient publicity. Therefore it is using the Internet to publicize its achievements. It also hopes that civil servants will use community websites as a propaganda tool. But this sort of thinking inverts cause and effect. It underscores the importance of Sims' theoretical elaboration of the relationship between cause and effect.

Now look ahead to the 2013 international economic situation. US government spending may be reduced due to the fiscal cliff. Major forecasting organizations think that the United States' 2013 economic growth rate will fall by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points over the current year. Japan's reconstruction spending has also passed its peak. Its 2013 economic growth rate will be reduced by about one percentage point; The Chinese mainland is experiencing a smooth succession in leadership. It may introduce new economic policies to promote economic performance. But any conclusions about their effectiveness must await their actual policy content. The fiscal problems of the nations within the European Union are gradually fading. Growth is expected to resume in 2013. But for the moment their economies are still weak.

Now take Taiwan. As a small open economy, is must be especially careful. The process of economic globalization continues. Economic and political policies have already broken through national boundaries. International trade impacts other countries. Governments intervene in their own national economies and affect economic cycles. International trade, international capital flows, and exchange rate changes have a spillover effect on other countries' economies. Therefore, future policy responses to the international situation should consider the impact of these policies. They should consider the spillover effects of these policies on other countries. The formulation of economic policy must consider the domestic situation. But it must also consider the international impact. It must consider other countries' policy response. It must consider how their responses will affect one's own policies, including regional economic integration, or the promotion of free trade zones. It must consider the links between various nations' industrial production. It must pay attention to domestic economic policy direction. Only then can it make the most of its policies. Only then can it fully realize the benefits of its policies.

以大師學術精髓反思台灣政策走向
【聯合報╱社論】
2012.10.25

美國經濟學家沙金特教授（Thomas Sargent）與席姆斯（Christopher A. Sims）教授以他們在「總體經濟因果關係的實證研究」方面的貢獻，在二○一一年共同獲得諾貝爾經濟學獎。繼日前沙金特應聯合報系經濟日報之請到訪之後，席姆斯也在今日會見各界，對於正在積極尋找因應經濟困局對策的台灣，大師的來訪正當其時，預料將再度引起相關理論的探索與討論。

席姆斯的重要貢獻，是針對經濟學方法論

提出「向量自我迴歸」（Vector Autoregression, VAR），透過將所有變數內生化的作法，來驗證變數之間的因果關係。並據以主張，根據數據中呈現的因果關係來制訂經濟政策，就能減少過度依賴理論假設所造成的問題；此外，也可應用於分析經濟如何受到經濟政策臨時性改變及其他因素的影響。席姆斯獲獎的重要原因，在於他的方法更能釐清因果關係，而非僅止於討論相關程度，這樣的概念除了在統計學上相當重要之外，政府在制訂執行各類政策時，也可遵循這樣的概念，正確且全盤考量各種變數之間的相互影響，以根據經濟發展情況制訂調控政策和預期目標，同時又根據經濟形勢的變化和政策實施效果來調整政策內容，才能讓政策順利推動並得到預期的效果。

運用上述理論觀察我國近況，近期發佈的經濟數據中，台灣終於在第三季的尾聲看見景氣復甦的曙光，出口成長十‧四％的表現，擺脫連續數個月衰退的窘境，外銷訂單也出現止跌回升至年增一‧九％，讓苦於國內經濟狀況不佳的政府官員們總算能夠稍微鬆一口氣；但事實上，由於二○一一基期數據較低，是否能夠就此推斷景氣回溫尚未可知，而政府近期所提的經濟振興方案亦未讓民眾感受到政策效果。面對此一情況，政府本應對政策內容及民意落差進行深入探討，思考如何進行修正與增補，進一步整合行政團隊，讓財政、貨幣、教育、勞動政策能相互搭配，強化經濟推升方案的效果；不過，目前政府似乎認為已經做得夠多，民眾的無感主因在於宣傳不足，因此除了用網路廣告的方式宣傳之外，還希望透過公務人員個人社群網站做為宣導工具，這種思考模式似乎是「倒果為因」，也讓席姆斯理論中對於因果關係的闡述顯得更加重要。

展望二○一三年國際經濟情勢，美國由於財政懸崖導致政府支出可能減少，主要預測機構認為美國二○一三年經濟成長率將較今年減少○‧二至○‧三個百分點；日本也由於重建支出高峰已過，二○一三年經濟成長率也將減少約一個百分點；中國大陸雖在領導階層順利接班後可能推出新的經濟政策帶動經濟表現，但成效仍須視政策實際內容才能論定；而歐盟在各國財政問題效果逐漸淡化的情況下，二○一三年有望恢復成長，但力道仍顯薄弱。

對於台灣而言，作為小型開放經濟體尤須深思，在經濟全球化的進程中，經濟與政策的因果關連早已突破了國界的限制，各國間不僅在貿易上有著相互影響，同時各國政府干預自身國家經濟運行與景氣循環的經濟政策，也會透過國際貿易、國際資本流動以及匯率變化等管道對他國經濟產生外溢效果。所以，在因應未來國際情勢的政策中，不僅要考慮本國政策的影響，也要考慮他國政策溢出效應的影響；在制訂經濟政策時，不但要考慮國內情況，也要考慮國際影響以及他國政策反應又會對本國政策實施效果產生何種影響，像是積極參與區域經濟整合，或是推動自由貿易區的同時，也應一併考量各國產業連結的現況，並持續關注其國內經濟政策走向，才能做出最好的政策配合，讓政策效果完全展現。