East Asian Turmoil: Anxieties over the Japanese and Korean Presidential Elections

East Asian Turmoil:
Anxieties over the Japanese and Korean Presidential Elections
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 7, 2012

Summary: This month two important elections will be held in East Asia. The Japanese Diet election and Tokyo gubernatorial election will be held on the 16th. This will be followed by the South Korean presidential election on the 19th. Predictions are that Japan and South Korea will both witness the emergence of new leadership. Territorial disputes between Japan and Mainland China, and Japan and South Korea have intensified. North Korea has test-fired long-range missiles. These two elections are taking place before this background. This highlights the treacherous situation facing the Asian-Pacific region.

Full Text below:

This month two important elections will be held in East Asia. The Japanese Diet election and Tokyo gubernatorial election will be held on the 16th. This will be followed by the South Korean presidential election on the 19th. Predictions are that Japan and South Korea will both witness the emergence of new leadership. Territorial disputes between Japan and Mainland China, and Japan and South Korea have intensified. North Korea has test-fired long-range missiles. These two elections are taking place before this background. This highlights the treacherous situation facing the Asian-Pacific region.

North Korea announced that between the 10th and 22nd of this month, it would launch a Galaxy III long-range Satellite Launch Vehicle, carrying a self-developed "Bright Star 3 dual mode (?) satellite. But observers say the satellites launches are mere cover. In fact, North Korea is test firing a Taepodong II long-range ballistic missile.

North Korea's new leader Kim Jong-un assumed power in April. North Korea conducted a similar "satellite" launch, which ended in failure. South Korea and the U.S. military seized much of the debris to study. December 17 is the first anniversary of the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. It is also Kim Jong-un's first anniversary as his successor. We now face a South Korean presidential election. North Korea has decided to conduct further missile tests. One. It is trumpeting its military might. Two. It is applying pressure on the South Korean elections. Three. It is strengthening the leadership and prestige of Kim Jong-un. It is attempting to make up for the previous failure. Four. It is gathering experience in order to improve its missile launch technology. Five. It is increasing its bargaining chips with the United States.

South Korea's upcoming election pits conservative New Frontier Party incumbent Park Geun Hye against liberal Democratic United Party challenger Moon Jae In. The New Frontier Party has long been tough on North Korea. It differs with the liberal opposition, which has inherited Kim Dae-jung's "sunshine policy." North Korea has repeatedly issued scathing denunciations of Park Geun Hye. It chose to conduct missile tests during the election. It is obviously trying to undermine Park Geun Hye's election bid. But its move has provoked a public backlash that has given Park Geun Hye a boost.

North Korea's long term strategy has been "marginalism." It uses nuclear weapons, missiles, and other military threats as bargaining chips to protect itself. It uses its geopolitical position to pit Mainland China and Russia against the United States and South Korea, and to maintain the Kim dynasty dictatorship. In the past, South Korea provided aid to North Korea. North Korea interpreted this as South Korean political influence. But the impact on North Korean rule and policy was negligible. This is why advocates of friendly exchanges with North Korea are seldom able to convince others that the exchanges were worthwhile.

North Korean policy is not the decisive factor in the South Korean presidential election. The South Korean people understand that the problem is not with South Korea. They understand that it cannot be solved in the short term. But voters must and will take into account the ability of the candidates deal with the North Korean problem. The president-elect will have to confront the challenges posed by Kim Jong-un, this young North Korean leader.

Japan's future leaders also face major challenges. They must deal with a long-term economic downturn. Mainland China has dethroned Japan as the world's second-largest economy. Japan's aging population is a problem without a solution. Political unrest leads to a new Prime Minister almost every year. Japan's "Lost Decade" has become a "Lost Two Decades," and may even become a "Lost Three Decades." A country lost for so long, is obviously is serious trouble.

The rise of Mainland China has demoted Japan to the number two position in Asia. South Korea is also catching up. Japan has lost its dominance. It feels lost. This anxiety has shaken Japanese society. Political parties are now competing to incite nationalist sentiment. They hope to satisfy the public's desire to restore Japan's national prestige.

Rightist Shintaro Ishihara and Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda fought to "purchase" the Diaoyutai Islands. Since then, the dispute over Diaoyutai Islands sovereignty has heightened tensions between Japan, Mainland China, and Taiwan. It has also justified tougher Mainland China assertions of sovereignty over Diaoyutai. The outbreak of anti-Japanese protests on Mainland China have seriously damaged the Japanese business interests. Ironically, Japan is in dire need of the Chinese market if it is to make an economic recovery. Short term grandstanding and nationalist demagoguery may exact a high price on Japan's long-term interests and national prosperity.

The LDP was already rightist. Now the Democratic Party is also leaning to the right. Old rightist Ishihara has joined with young rightist Toru Hashimoto's Japan Restoration Association. This has created a force that cannot be ignored. The Democratic Party lacks policy experience and achievements. It is expected to lose. . The Liberal Democratic Party is expected to win. But it still needs to form coalitions with others. Whether the formation of a stable political scenario is possible remains to be seen. But Japan's domestic and international plight is far grimmer than it was during the old LDP period.

Japan and Korea play a vital role in Asia. The surrounding Asian-Pacific strategic picture is more unpredictable than ever. The new leaders of Japan and South Korea must respond prudently. For the Pacific Rim, 2012 is an election year. Several nations are holding elections or changing leaders. They are responding to extremist political actions that have raised regional tensions and led to regional conflicts. Will these leaders return to pragmatism? Will they promote peace and prosperity? That remains to be seen. Naturally Taiwan must pay close attention to this turbulence in the Asian-Pacific region.
   
中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2012.12.07
社論－東亞風雲詭譎 日韓大選焦慮
本報訊

    　本月東亞將有兩場重要選舉，日本眾議院選舉與東京都知事選舉在十六日登場，接著南韓總統大選在十九日舉行，預料日韓都將出現新的領導人。而這兩場選舉，在日中韓領土爭議加劇、北韓試射長程飛彈的背景下進行，益發凸顯了亞太局勢未來面臨的詭譎張力。

    　北韓宣布將於本月十日到廿二日之間，發射「銀河三號」長程運載火箭，攜載自力研製的「光明星三號」二期實用衛星升空。不過外界多認為發射衛星只是表面說法，實際上是要試射「大浦洞二號」長程彈道飛彈。

    　四月間北韓新領導人金正恩確定接班時，北韓就進行過同樣的「衛星」發射行動，結果以失敗墜落收場，讓南韓和美軍搶撈了不少碎片帶回去研究。十二月十七日是北韓前領導人金正日逝世一周年，也是金正恩接掌大位一周年的日子，又遇上南韓要選總統，北韓決定再度試射飛彈，一來誇耀軍事力量，二來對南韓選舉施壓，三來強化金正恩的領導威信，為上次的失敗扳回一城，四來吸取經驗改進飛彈發射技術，五來增加與美國討價還價的籌碼。

    　南韓這次是保守派執政黨「新世界黨」的朴槿惠與自由派「民主統合黨」的文在寅對決，「新世界黨」向來對北韓態度嚴峻，與承襲金大中「陽光政策」的自由派反對陣營立場不同。北韓連番對朴槿惠發出嚴厲批判，並且挑在選舉期間試射飛彈，明顯是想打壓朴槿惠的選情。不過此舉反而激起民意反彈，讓朴槿惠的聲勢獲得拉抬。

    　北韓向來的策略是走偏鋒的「邊緣主義」，用核武飛彈等軍事威脅製造談判自保的籌碼，藉地緣政治的位置取得中、俄相挺以對抗美國、南韓，其主要目的，是維持金氏王朝的獨裁封閉統治。南韓過去對北韓的援助與交流，被北韓當成影響南韓的政治工具，反過頭來卻沒有對北韓的統治與政策造成太大改變，這也是為什麼主張與北韓友善交往的人到最後往往拿不出足以說服他人的成果。

    　因此，這次的南韓大選，對北政策並不是決定性的因素，畢竟南韓民眾都了解，大部分的問題並不在南韓這邊，而且這也不是短時間可以解決的事。不過選民一定要而且會考慮候選人處理對北問題的能力，而總統當選人也將面對金正恩這位年輕北韓領導人所帶來的新挑戰。

    　日本未來的領導人同樣面臨重大挑戰，除了經濟長期低迷，全球第二大經濟體的寶座拱手讓給中國，而人口老化問題無解，政局不安幾乎一年一換首相，也讓日本從「失落的十年」走到「失落的廿年」，如今可能邁入「失落的卅年」。一個國家可以失落這麼久，顯然沉痾不輕。

    　近年來中國崛起把日本壓成亞洲二哥，南韓也意氣風發急起直追，日本對本身優勢地位的流失，有著相當的失落感，連帶引發的焦慮造成了整個社會的右傾化，以致於政黨競相擺出民族主義者姿態，以滿足民眾希望重振國威之心。

    　在右派的石原慎太郎與首相野田佳彥搶購釣魚台之後，釣魚台主權爭議激化了日中台之間的緊張，更讓中國大陸有理由對釣魚台作更強硬的宣示主權動作。中國大陸的反日風潮爆發以來，日本企業界的利益大受損傷，而偏偏當今經濟復甦亟需中國市場，短期譁眾取寵的民族主義操弄，卻可能讓日本長期實質利益及國家發展付出代價。

    　日本自民黨原本就較為右傾，現在民主黨也跟著往右靠，而老右派石原和少壯右派橋下徹的日本維新會結合，形成另一股不可忽視的勢力。一般預料，缺乏施政經驗與成績的民主黨恐將交出政權，自民黨可望勝選，但仍需與其他勢力聯合執政。是否能形成穩定政局，猶待觀察，但日本今天面對的內外局勢，其嚴峻早已遠遠超過昔日自民黨執政時期。

    　日、韓這兩個國家在亞洲舉足輕重，環繞其周圍的亞太局勢更是風雲詭譎，日、韓新的領導人必須盱衡情勢審慎因應。二○一二年環太平洋地區可說是走了一遭「大選年」，有多個國家進行國家領導人選舉或換屆，而因應選舉發生的各種極端或政治動作，以及所引起的區域緊張與衝突，是否會隨著各國領導人的底定而回歸務實思維，落實和平共榮的目標，仍然相當令人關切；當然，台灣必須密切注意整體亞太情勢的動盪發展。