Open Doors or Closed? Japanese Politicians Regroup

Open Doors or Closed? Japanese Politicians Regroup
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 18, 2012

Summary: Japan's 46th House of Representatives general election was a dramatic departure from 29 years of December House of Representatives elections. Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) rule ended in 2012. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)returned to power. It formed a coalition with the New Komeito Party (NKP), and captured over two-thirds of the seats. It parted company with Ichiro Ozawa, whose DPJ was demoted to its former status. It did more than lose power. It was reduced to where it could not even compete with small and medium-sized political parties such as the LDP and NKP.

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Japan's 46th House of Representatives general election was a dramatic departure from 29 years of December House of Representatives elections. Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) rule ended in 2012. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)returned to power. It formed a coalition with the New Komeito Party (NKP), and captured over two-thirds of the seats. It parted company with Ichiro Ozawa, whose DPJ was demoted to its former status. It did more than lose power. It was reduced to where it could not even compete with small and medium-sized political parties such as the LDP and NKP.

Shintaro Ishihara is the leader of the Japan Restoration Council. The "small constituency system" imposes constraints. The LDP and NKP joined hands to attack it. But it still did well during the election. Right-wing advocates benefitted to some degree from public discontent with the ruling DPJ. But support for this "third force" was too scattered. It has little room for growth. The election results were no surprise. But they also show that the two party system involving the LDP and DPJ is not yet mature.

Following the Cold War, the 55 year LDP political monopoly began to loosen. In 1993, Ichiro Ozawa left the party. This split the LDP. It led to a reshuffle of the Japanese political landscape. In 1994, the election system for the Japanese House of Representatives was revamped. A "parallel proportional representation constituency system" was introduced. The intent was to establish a two party political system. In the meantime, the House of Representatives held a fifth election in August 2009. The DPJ bet on the people's longing for change. It won 308 seats in the House of Representatives, scoring an overwhelming victory. In a single stroke, it shattered the 55 year old system. The LDP has long been the largest party in the House of Representatives. It seized political power.

The September 2009 scene in Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's residence in Nagatacho remains fresh in our memories. But in July 2010, the Democratic Party suffered a defeat in the House of Councilors election. Japan's politics became mired in vicious ruling vs. opposition party struggles that distorted the Diet. The Ozawa and anti-Ozawa factions within the DPJ continued to quarrel. Ichiro Ozawa severed all relations with the party. Prime Minister Noda was essentially reduced to minority rule. He could not address tax reform and social welfare reform. He could not solve the structural problems bedeviling the Japanese economy. The Japanese economy gradually lost its competitiveness. The Japanese people could do little besidses reelect Shinzo Abe three times. Therefore, the LDP regained power. It regained power not because it endured hardship when it was in the opposition and made plans to govern better upon its return to power. It regained power because the ruling DPJ failed.

The House of Representatives general election resulted in the parties swapping places. The LDP came on like gangbusters. It won over half the seats in the House of Representatives alone. Together with the NKP the two hold two-thirds of seats in the House of Representatives. This has reduced problems with a "distorted Congress." But it does not mean the LDP is welcomed by all. The number of candidates exploded. A new record was established for the number of candidates running since the post-war implementation of Japan's new constitution. The LDP benefitted from the small constituency system, which reduced the opportunity for the sudden emergence of a third force. The DPJ and the third force cannibalized each other's support. This enabled the LDP to benefit via small constituency seats. This is proven by the fact that the Liberal Democratic Party only won about 30 seats.

Following the election, the Abe Cabinet may temporarily clear away the fog of minority rule. It may enjoy a brief honeymoon. But "Abe Economics" must print more yen, stimulate inflation, in order to drive consumption. Japanese may not benefit from economic growth. They may first end up suffering from inflation. Add to this the consumption tax to be levied in 2014. The Japanese people may have to suffer for quite some time.

Worst of all, the small constituency system in the Japanese House of Representatives, resulted in too many "dead men voting." Swings caused by The recent third House of Representatives general election was plagued by excessive swings in the vote tallies. This problem may recur in the next House of Representatives election. Therefore, the Liberal Democratic Party's triumphant return does not mean that in the future there will be no strong opposition oversight. If the short run Can Abe produce results that the Japanese are happy with? If not, then next year's July House of Councilors elections could result in an Abe defeat. He would live his 2007 experience.

The House of Representatives election involved an unprecedented 12 political parties fighting each other tooth and nail. A grand total of 1504 candidates ran for office. Japanese voters remained calm and collected. Over 40% of the voters stayed home. This accurately reflects the Japanese public's mistrust of Japanese politicians. The young are politically apathetic. They have no desire to vote. The Democratic Party has rule for three years, three months. The Japanese have realized that changes in ruling parties is no magic wand. They will not make Japan undergo a magical transformation. In the future ruling party changes will not be enough to arouse voter enthusiasm and support. Ruling and opposition leaders' specific proposals to solve the nation's political problems will be the real key to voter motivation.

Therefore, changes in the Japanese political landscape will not end as a result of a resurrected LDP and NKP coalition cabinet. The small constituency system phenomenon is transitional. The small constituency system imposes constraints. Small parties are bound to merge with each other in their search for electoral victories. The LDP is neither monolithic nor shatterproof.

Globalization is the rule. Japan faces serious challenges. The political world must decide whether to adopt an Open or Closed Door policy. This will replace increasingly polarized left vs. right opposition. Japanese voters must choose between the two. They must implement a stable two-party political system. They must learn from others. We on Taiwan must reflect upon the sweeping changes Japan is undergoing.

開國或鎖國 日本政界重組啟示錄
    2012-12-18
    中國時報

　日本第四十六屆眾議院大選為睽違二十九年的「師走（十二月）眾院選舉」，民主黨政權隨二○一二年的結束，畫下休止符，自民黨不僅重返執政，更與公明黨聯袂攻下逾三分之二的席次。與小澤一郎分道揚鑣的民主黨則被打回原形，非但失去政權，亦淪為無法抗衡自、公兩黨的中小型政黨。

　此外，石原慎太郎領軍的「日本維新會」，儘管在「小選區制」制約下，遭遇自、公兩黨的聯手夾擊，但仍開出不錯的選情，右翼主張某種程度成為承繼對民主黨執政失望之民意出口，惟「第三極」太過分散，發展的空間仍受限。這樣的選舉結果雖不令人意外，但卻也透露「自民對民主的兩黨制」在日本仍未臻成熟的事實。

　冷戰後，以自民黨壟斷政治的「五五年體制」開始鬆動。一九九三年，小澤一郎脫黨，裂解自民黨，揭開日本政界重組的序幕。此外，一九九四年，日本眾議院選制改弦更張，「小選區比例代表並立制」啟動，希望順勢建立兩大政黨制。其間，歷經五屆眾議院大選，直至二○○九年八月，日本民主黨挾思變之民心，以獲得眾議院三○八席的壓倒性勝利，一舉打破五五年體制、自民黨始終為眾議院最大黨的格局，奪下政權。

　二○○九年九月，鳩山由紀夫榮進永田町首相官邸的光景仍令人記憶猶新。然而，二○一○年七月，民主黨參議院選舉大敗，日本政治再陷「扭曲的國會」下的朝野惡鬥，民主黨內「小澤派」與「反小澤派」齟齬不斷；小澤一郎割袍斷義後，野田首相實質淪為少數執政，針對各項稅制與社福制度的改革，無法從根本解決日本經濟的結構性問題，而日本的國家競爭力亦在此過程中漸趨流失，日本人民遂只能無奈地讓安倍晉三重作馮婦。因此，此番自民黨奪回政權，非賴該黨在野期間臥薪嘗膽、勵精圖治，而是全拜民主黨執政失敗之賜。

　誠然，此次眾院大選情勢主客易位，自民黨勢如破竹，不僅眾議院單獨過半，自、公兩黨更斬獲三分之二的眾院席次，緩解「扭曲的國會」困境，但此不代表自民黨眾望所歸。在參選爆炸，創戰後日本新憲實施後最多候選人紀錄的情況下，自民黨占盡小選區選制的便宜，壓縮「第三極」異軍突起的空間，更在民主黨、「第三極」相互搶票下，讓自民黨在小選區的席次上漁翁得利，此更可藉自民黨在比例代表中僅獲三成左右席次得到明證。

　選後，安倍內閣雖可暫時一掃少數執政的陰霾，享受短暫的民意蜜月期，然而，以擴大日幣發行、刺激通膨、帶動消費的「安倍經濟學」，可能令日本國民未蒙經濟成長之利，先受通貨膨脹之苦；再加上二○一四年的消費稅增稅，日本人的苦日子恐將持續一段日子。

　尤有甚者，日本眾議院的小選區制，導致「死票率」過高，造成近三屆眾議院大選的勝負擺盪幅度過大的問題，在下屆眾院大選中仍可能重演。因此，自民黨此次班師回朝不表示今後無強有力的在野監督，若短期間內，安倍未能交出令日本人有感的政績，明年七月的參議院選舉，安倍難免再度挫敗，重蹈二○○七年下台的覆轍。

　其實，相對眾院大選中，前所未見的十二政黨廝殺、共一五○四人參選的盛況，日本選民的表現十分淡定；超過四成的選民未投票的現象，正反映當前日本人對政治的無感與對政界人士的不信任，其中對未來茫然的年輕族群更是政治冷感，不願出門投票。顯然，歷經三年三個月民主黨的執政，日本人已意識到政黨輪替不是「仙女棒」，能瞬間讓日本亮起來。今後訴求政黨輪替將不足以激起選民的支持熱情，朝野領袖提出具體解決國政難題之良方，方為促動選民投票動機的關鍵。

　因此，日本政界的重組不會因「自公聯合內閣」的復活運轉而停歇，小黨林立的現象應只是過渡現象。在小選舉區制的制約下，小黨勢必走向整合，尋求再戰的機會，而自民黨亦非鐵板一塊、牢不可破。

　於全球化的今日，日本正面臨嚴峻的挑戰，政界未來的合縱連橫將以「開國」或「鎖國」之辯，取代「左」、「右」之爭的漸趨兩極化，如此日本選民始能在兩者間做出有意義的抉擇，實現穩態的兩黨政治。他山之石可以攻錯，台灣對日本變天應有所省思。