ROC Security Needs G2 Communication

ROC Security Needs G2 Communication
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 4, 2012

Summary: After expressions of concern by many, and nearly three months delay, King Pu-tsung finally arrived in Washington and assumed his duties as the Taipei's Representative to Washington. When asked how he felt, he said the only difference was that "Today is an important new beginning." American Institute in Taiwan Chairman Burghardt said Taipei-Washington relations are the best they have been in 30 years. Bilateral relations are good, in both the private and public sectors. King Pu-tsung once said he "would not join the government, and would not join the cabinet." Why is this new post so important that he would break his promise?

Full Text below:

After expressions of concern by many, and nearly three months delay, King Pu-tsung finally arrived in Washington and assumed his duties as the Taipei's Representative to Washington. When asked how he felt, he said the only difference was that "Today is an important new beginning." American Institute in Taiwan Chairman Burghardt said Taipei-Washington relations are the best they have been in 30 years. Bilateral relations are good, in both the private and public sectors. King Pu-tsung once said he "would not join the government, and would not join the cabinet." Why is this new post so important that he would break his promise?

The answer is obvious -- increasingly strained relations between Beijing and Washington.

Ma Ying-jeou became president in 2008. Almost immediately, Washington-Beijing confrontation intensified, especially when the Obama administration declared the following year that the US would "return to Asia." Storm clouds gathered over the Asian-Pacific Rim, in the East China Sea and South China Sea. Despite subsequent developments, they have yet to dissipate. In late October, Beijing dispatched ocean surveillance ships to waters surrounding the Diaoyutai Islands for an "indefinite period." This "normalized" navigation through the waters, in response to Japan's "nationalization" of the islands. Confrontation between Beijing and Tokyo intensified. Several days ago, the U.S. Senate decided to interpret the 2013 National Defense Authorization Act. It declared that Article V of the US-Japan Security Treaty applied to the Diaoyutai Islands, and that in the event of a Sino-Japanese conflict, the United States would intervene, possibly even directly, with force. This inflamed the situation even more.

In August 2010, the U.S. State Department declared that the Diaoyutai Islands were still under Japan's administrative jurisdiction. Therefore they were covered by the US-Japan Security Treaty. Japan's "nationalization" of the Diaoyutai Islands made Beijing realize it could no longer tolerate "business as usual." The bilateral conflict did not end there. In 2009, just as the Diaoyutai Islands dispute was surfacing, the Philippines proclaimed the baselines for its territorial waters. It alleged that Huangyan Island and the Nansha Islands were part of its sovereign territory. The South China Sea issue has become another attention-getting Beijing-Wasington confrontation.

The United States used the South Korean Tianan ship incident as a pretext to increase diplomatic pressure in the Western Pacific region and to call for more strategic exercises. Mainland Chinese forces gathered for the first time in the North China Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea. One after another, they conducted joint exercises in the East China Sea, Bashi Channel, and the Nansha Islands. Shortly thereafter, in 2011, the long-awaited aircraft carrier was launched, ahead of schedule. This touched off a new arms race in the region. Recently the Mainland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued new passports, complete with diagrams which included the disputed areas as part of its sovereign territory. The Hainan People's Congress amended the law. It authorized provincial public security officials to board and search "illegal" foreign ships in South China Sea waters. The Mainland's State Oceanic Administration vowed to tighten controls over the Xisha waters, beginning next year. It also normalized law enforcement in waters surrounding Huangyan Island. This led to increased tensions in the South China Sea.

Beijing-Washington confrontation is nothing new. Strategically and geopolitically, Taipei finds itself caught between the two powers. How should it seek to survive? The challenges are already multiplying. Su Chi, former Secretary-General of the National Security Council, said Ma administration policy is to "make peace with the Mainland, maintain friendship with Japan, and remain close to the United States." In practice, this means the promotion of cross-Strait talks and diplomatic truce, and closer Taipei-Tokyo economic and trade ties. It also means increased understanding and trust from Washington in exchange for concessions on US beef imports. These all reflect hard work by senior government officials. But Washington-Beijing grievances, and regional conflicts are growing. Implementing the foregoing strategic objectives may not be easy.

Admittedly, dealing with the G2 is not easy matter. But there is still room to maneuver. The key is to make clear to the two powers that Taipei's position is benevolent. In 2009, during the Ma administration's first term, King Pu-tsung was a researcher at the Brookings Institution. Various parties speculated that he would convey Taipei's policy to Washington. He has since been "promoted" to Representative to the United States. This reflects new pressures resulting from the deterioration of Beijing-Washington relations. This is apparently something he could not address in his former capacity. It is widely believed that "Whether King has foreign policy experience is not important. What is important, is that he is Ma's avatar." This "special relationship" reveals anxieties about the regional scenario. We must avoid misunderstandings with Washington that could lead to unnecessary difficulties for Taipei. For the moment, King is irreplaceable.

For the foreseeable future, Washington will remain the main pillar of Taipei's security. We look forward to King fulfilling his mission. We hope he will successfully communicate with Washington and prevent peripheral conflicts from undermining ROC security. We hope the environment will remain predictable, and development will remain sustainable.

兩大之間 台灣安全有賴準確傳達訊息
    2012-12-04
    中國時報

　在各方關切並延宕將近三個月後，新任駐美代表金溥聰終於順利抵達華府履新；當問及其赴任心情時，他表示，唯一不同的是「今天是另外一個重要的開始」。其實，假使如美國在台協會理事主席薄瑞光所言，台美關係正處於三十年來的最佳狀態，不論民間或政府，雙方互動大體緊密良好的話，那麼，讓一度號稱「不入府、不入閣」的金溥聰打破承諾，毅然於此刻赴任新職的重要性究竟何在？

　答案顯而易見，關鍵就在當前日趨緊繃的中美關係。

　幾乎就在馬英九於二○○八年就任總統同時，美國與中共的對立態勢也跟著陡然上升。尤其在歐巴馬政府於翌年公開宣示將「重返亞洲」後，亞太周邊的東海與南海局勢隨之風雲驟起，後續發展迄今陰霾未去。例如今年十月底以來，中共決定讓海監船「無限期」巡航釣魚島海域，以落實「常態化通行」來對應日本國有化方針的結果，不僅中日關係持續尖銳化，美國參議院數日前決定於二○一三年國防授權法案當中，明確規定將《美日安保條約》第五條適用於釣魚台，暗示一旦中日在此發生衝突，美國將採干預措施，甚至直接武力介入，更無異是火上澆油之舉。

　事實上，早在二○一○年八月，美國國務院便公開表示，由於釣魚台仍在日本行政管轄之下，當然屬於安保涵蓋範圍，日本更進一步將釣島「國有化」，埋下中共衝撞此一「現狀」的背後動機，更別說雙方矛盾還不僅於此。就在釣魚台爭端浮現之際，菲律賓在二○○九年透過畫定領海基線，將黃岩島及南沙群島部分島礁納入其主權後，南海問題又成為另一個關注中美角力的焦點。

　為回應美國以南韓天安艦事件為由，在西太平洋地區擴大「演習外交」所帶來的戰略壓力，中共方面隨即首度集結其北海、東海與南海三大艦隊，陸續於東海、巴士海峽與南沙群島實施聯合演練；緊接著，醞釀已久的航母平台被迫在二○一一年提前下水，從而為新一輪區域軍備競賽點火加溫；日前其外交部在新版護照中納入主權爭議地區圖片，再加上海南人大常委會修法授權該省公安登船搜索「非法」進入南海水域的外國船隻，以及中共國家海洋局稱將自明年起強化對西沙海域的實際管控，並落實黃岩島與鄰近海域的常態性執法等一連串動作，亦再度引發南海周邊區域緊張。

　儘管中美對峙早已眾所周知，對台灣來說，就戰略或地緣政治的角度，未來應該如何於兩大強權夾縫中尋求自處之道，挑戰則已愈來愈大；前國安會祕書長蘇起曾言，馬政府的對外策略就是要建構一個「和中、友日、親美」的平衡戰略格局，事實上，包括推動兩岸復談與外交和解、深化台日雙方更密切之經貿聯繫，甚至一度透過在牛肉問題上讓步以換取美國信任諒解等，在在顯示政府高層的努力；只不過，面對美中心結日深與區域內部矛盾難解的局勢，要貫徹前述主觀之戰略目標，確實很不容易。

　誠然，兩大之間確實難為小，但小者絕非沒迴旋空間，關鍵在於向大者明確釐清其無害之立場。在馬政府第一個任期中，金溥聰於二○○九年以布魯金斯研究所研究員身分赴美，本即被各方揣測肩負向美方傳達我國政策內涵任務，此次「升格」擔任駐美代表，即反映出現階段中美關係惡化所帶來之新一波壓力，似已非他原先的非正式身分所能解決，正如一般認為，「金小刀有沒有外交經驗不重要，重點是他是老馬的分身」，這種「特殊關係」也說明了在近期山雨欲來的區域情勢中，為免美方誤解、引發我國不必要困擾，目前確實存在「非他不可」的外交考量。

　基於在可見的未來，美國依舊將是台灣安全主要支柱的現實，我們衷心期盼金代表能「使命必達」，準確傳達並成功完成向美溝通的職責，以便盡可能降低台灣安全受到周邊衝突加劇之牽累，繼續在一個較可預期的大環境中，持續發展。