Park Geun-hye Victorious Amidst Generational Deprivation

Park Geun-hye Victorious Amidst Generational Deprivation
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 20, 2012

Summary: Such is history. Yesterday South Korea held its 18th presidential election. New Frontier Party candidate Park Geun-hye won. She become the first female president in the history of South Korean constitutional rule. When it comes to women's rights, South Korea has long given the outside world a negative impression. Now however, at the start of the 21st century, it has a woman president. This certainly is a fascinating historical development.

Full Text below:

Such is history. Yesterday South Korea held its 18th presidential election. New Frontier Party candidate Park Geun-hye won. She become the first female president in the history of South Korean constitutional rule. When it comes to women's rights, South Korea has long given the outside world a negative impression. Now however, at the start of the 21st century, it has a woman president. This certainly is a fascinating historical development.

Park Geun-hye has been elected president. She has set several precedents. In addition to being the first woman president, she is the first president to receive over half the votes since the 1987 presidential election. She also received the largest number of votes ever in Korean history. Furthermore, this election is the first time under constitutional rule that conservative over 50 voters outnumbered progressive under 30 voters. The election results show that voter composition has changed completely. The low birth rate and an aging population has reversed the voter composition compared to ten years ago.

Park set another precedent. This is the second time in the past decade that a presidential election has pitted conservatives against progressives, in two camps, in a one-on-one show down. The election involved a record 75% turnout, the largest since 2000.

The most unique precedent is also the the one with the greatest impact. That is the reversal in the composition of voters by age. The reversal was apparent in regional voting patterns during South Korea's last election. It is still a factor. But generational differences and contradictions were increasingly apparent during this election. The turnout was considered high. This favored opposition candidate Moon Jae-in. But the composition of voters was reversed during this election. The turnout rate was affected by an aging population and the declining birthrate. Generational and age differences outweighed regionalism. This election underscored the vertical division of society.

The voter composition reversed itself. Park Geun-hye won the presidency. But she faces issues of generational justice and generational conflict. This was predictable. Park Geun-hye has assumed power in South Korea. She faces a more difficult situation than current president Lee Myung-bak.

According to South Korea's Samsung Institute, South Korea faces external problems. These include the European debt crisis, the U.S. fiscal cliff, and the slowdown in Mainland Chinese growth. More importantly, it faces domesic problems. These include a too high household debt burden, and young people with too low incomes. These problems affect various domestic sectors. Different generations experience different degrees of hardship.

Given the economic situation at home and abroad, South Korea cannot maintain its past growth rate. Given the low growth, the various domestic classes can expect to become equally poor instead of equally rich. Over time, class and generational conflicts will intensify.

Yet Park Geun-hye does not appear to have any concrete policy remedies. That is what is so strange about this particular South Korean presidential election. The candidates failed to offer any concrete political proposals during the election. Only during the last few televised debates did they offer an occasional policy prescription. Park Geun-hye proposed rescuing the middle class, which accounts for 70% of society. She also wants powerful restraints imposed upon the Chaebols, which abuse their power.

But suppose the fiscal picture fails to improve? Large South Korean enterprises such as Samsung remain the main pillar of national strength. How will Park Geun-hye rescue the middle class? If Park Geun-hye hopes to fulfill her promises, she must adopt extraordinary measures. But that could trigger generational and class conflicts. The slightest mistake could have the opposite effect. Park Geun-hye's greatest challenge upon taking office will be to sort out and solve these problems.

Generational and class conflicts have erupted on Taiwan over annuities and other issues. These are the same problems that arose during the South Korean presidential election. Taiwan does not have a major election coming up. But generational and class conflict is becoming increasingly apparent. Taiwan's low birth rate and aging population has been classified as a national security issue. But it will remain difficult to deal with. Suppose the economic situation remains weak? Suppose a solution to this problem is not forthcoming? Sharper confrontation and conflict will be in the offing.

The economy is in a downturn. Yesterday South Korea held its presidential election. This was the last major election of 2012. Review the results of these presidential elections. The conclusion will be obvious. This is an era of uncertainty. Most conservative camps won. Most opposition parties lost. The ruling administrations' biggest challenges are economic. How will they be addressed? How will social harmony be preserved? How will generational conflicts be resolved? These demand thorough examination and appropriate countermeasures.

朴槿惠在世代剝奪中勝出
【聯合報╱社論】
2012.12.20 02:17 am

歷史總是這樣的！南韓昨日舉行第十八屆總統選舉，結果新世界黨候選人朴槿惠勝出，成為南韓憲政史上第一位女性總統。南韓過去總是給外界女權低落的印象，如今在二十一世紀之初，竟產生了女總統，可說充溢著歷史發展的趣味。

朴槿惠當選總統，創下多項紀綠。除了第一位女總統之外，她也是一九八七年直選總統以來，得票首次過半的總統，更是史上得票數最多的總統。再者，這次選舉也是憲政史上，以保守為主的五十歲以上的選民人數首次超過代表進步意向的三十歲以下的選民人數，此種選舉人數及其占比所呈現的，是選民結構的徹底改變。在少子化及老年化的影響下，選民結構與十年前相較，出現大翻轉的情況。

其他的紀錄是，這是近十年來總統選舉再次形成保守和進步兩大陣營的一對一對決情勢。同時這次的投票率也創下二千年以來選舉最高的投票率達七成五以上。

這些紀錄中，最特別也是影響甚大的，就是投票人口年齡層結構的翻轉。這個翻轉，讓南韓過去選舉中非常鮮明的地域性投票行為，雖然仍有一定的影響力，但世代的矛盾、差異和對決氣氛，在這次選舉中也愈來愈顯明。雖然一般認為投票率高，對在野黨候選人文在寅有利，但是在這個選民結構的大翻轉下，投票率高恐怕也很難不受整個人口老化及少子化趨勢的影響。世代別、年齡別已經超過了地域主義，形成社會垂直分裂的結構，在這次選舉中被凸顯出來。

這種投票人口結構的翻轉，雖然讓朴槿惠拿下總統寶座，但未來她要面對的問題，也將會圍繞在世代正義和衝突的議題上。可以預見，朴槿惠接手的南韓局勢，是一個比現任總統李明博更艱困的局面。

根據南韓三星研究所的評估，南韓未來所面臨的外部問題，包括歐債危機、美國財政懸崖、中國成長放緩等。但更重要的是內部問題，包括家庭債務負擔過高、青年人收入過低等。這些問題都相當影響到國家內部各種階層、不同世代的相對剝奪感。

衡諸未來的國內外經濟局勢，南韓不容易再維持過去的成長情勢。在這種情況下，國內各種階層就只能在低成長下分配，而變成一種均貧，而非均富的局面。長此以往，階層和世代的矛盾、衝突將會更加劇烈。

但在這些方面，目前尚看不出朴槿惠有何具體政策。這也是這次南韓總統大選，非常奇特之處。在選舉過程中，並未聽到候選人提出具體的政見，只有從最後幾場的電視辯論中，聽到零星的主張。朴槿惠主張，要恢復占社會比重百分之七十的中產階級，也要強力管束財閥大企業集團的濫用特權等。

不過，如果財經情勢不能好轉，南韓如三星等大企業仍是國力的主要支柱，朴槿惠如何能恢復中產階級的占比？朴槿惠如要兌現主張，勢必要用一些非常手段，如此就可能牽動更多階層及世代的衝突，甚至分裂，稍一不慎，就可能得到反效果。也就是說，朴槿惠未來如何整合、解決這些難題，成為她就任後最重要的課題。

其實台灣最近因年金等問題所出現的世代、階層衝突，也正是南韓總統大選結果所呈現的問題面向。台灣雖然沒有馬上面臨大型選舉，但世代和階層之間的衝突，在可以預見的未來，也一定是愈來愈明顯。台灣人口的少子化和老年化，雖已被列為是國安議題，但難以抵擋。一旦經濟情勢仍不振，這個問題如果不能得到適當的解決和處理，未來將會走向更尖銳的對立和衝突。

在經濟低迷的年代，昨日南韓的總統選舉，為二○一二年的全球大選年畫下句點。檢視今年的各國大選結果，不難發現，在這個不確定的年代，保守陣營多半拿下了政權，反對黨多敗北。而執政者所面臨最大的仍是經濟議題，如何解決，讓其不至於影響社會的和諧、世代的矛盾，似乎都必須徹底思考、拿出對策。