Mainland Naval and Air Defense of Diaoyutai Impacts Asian-Pacific Strategic Picture

Mainland Naval and Air Defense of Diaoyutai Impacts Asian-Pacific Strategic Picture
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
December 16, 2012

Summary: Japan recently held a general election, as it turns out, at a critical moment. For the first time ever, Mainland China sent patrol aircraft over Diaoyutai airspace to defend its sovereignty. Japanese fighters scrambled to intercept them. No actual clash occurred, but confrontations between the two sides in and around Diaoyutai are escalating. These confrontations are redrawing the strategic map of the Asian-Pacific region.

Full Text below:

Japan recently held a general election, as it turns out, at a critical moment. For the first time ever, Mainland China sent patrol aircraft over Diaoyutai airspace to defend its sovereignty. Japanese fighters scrambled to intercept them. No actual clash occurred, but confrontations between the two sides in and around Diaoyutai are escalating. These confrontations are redrawing the strategic map of the Asian-Pacific region.

The current wave of clashes between the Mainland and Japan over Diaoyutai were provoked by Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara's "purchase" of the islands. His provocation reawakened historical memories for the Chinese people. Passions old and new flared up. Calls emerged for the settling of old scores. Japan assumed that the US-Japan Security Treaty would cover Diaoyutai, and that therefore it had nothing to fear. But the Mainland was buying time and gathering strength. Now it appears, the time is ripe.

Consider the strategic picture. The United States created its first island chain along the western rim of the Pacific. Its purpose? To deny Mainland China free access to the Pacific Ocean. Populist demagoguery by Japanese rightists is intensifying the the Diaoyutai Islands dispute. It is provoking anti-Japanese sentiment on the Mainland. It has also presented the Mainland with an opportunity to proclaim its sovereignty over Diaoyutai Island waters and to break through the first island chain.

The Mainland has seized the initiative. It has made one move after another, in rapid succession. Japan has been reduced to passivity. It is betting on US intervention. It is hoping that the US-Japan Security Treaty will cover the Diaoyutai Islands, thereby containing the Mainland.

Over the past few years, Mainland ocean surveillance ships have entered Diaoyutai Island waters with increasing frequency. In September of this year, Tokyo announced the "nationalization" of the Diaoyutai Islands. But Beijing beat Tokyo to the punch. It publicly announced its baselines for Diaoyutai Islands territorial waters. It submitted baseline coordinates, tables, charts, and continental shelf outlines to the United Nations. It announced its official nomenclature for the Diaoyutai Islands and the surrounding waters. These actions were in strict accord with international law. Step by step, Beijing laid out the legal basis for sovereignty over the Diaoyutai Islands.

December 13 was the 75th anniversary of the Rape of Nanking. The Mainland's State Oceanic Administration dispatched maritime surveillance aircraft into airspace only 15 kilometers from the south coast of the Diaoyutai Islands. With this, the Diaoyutai Islands dispute entered a new phase.

Since 1958 Mainland aircraft have never entered the region's airspace. On December 13, Japanese Self-Defense Force radar failed to detect reconnaissance aircraft belonging to the Mainland's Oceanic Administration. When the Japanese belated realized this, they were shocked. They hurriedly scrambled eight F-15 fighter planes and an AWACs plane to intercept it. By then the Mainland's Oceanic Administration reconnaissance aircraft had already left the scene.

The Japanese immediately lodged strong protests. But the Mainland reminded the Japanese that the ocean surveillance aircraft were operating within Diaoyutai Islands territory. Their actions were perfectly normal. Beijing Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei even told the Japanese to "desist from its illegal activities in Diaoyutai Islands waters and air space." The Oceanic Administration even described the flight as "the first air-sea 3D cruise."

The Mainland Oceanic Administration's maritime surveillance aircraft was not a military aircraft. But ocean surveillance ships and warships have entered Diaoyutai Island waters before. Now, for the first time, the Mainland has conducted a sea-air 3D cruise. It is clearly following a script.

One. The Mainland is being more emphatic in proclaiming its sovereignty over the Diaoyutai Islands. Two. It is normalizing missions to Diaoyutai Islands territorial waters and airspace. Three. It is resolute, and shows no fear of escalating the conflict. Four. It is using these accomplishments to consolidate the status of its current leadership. Five. It is countering United States containment in the Asian-Pacific. Using Diaoyutai as its springboard, the Mainland has made steady advances. As long as its actions do not lead to military conflict, it intends to make hay while the sun shines.

Mainland China dispatched reconnaissance aircraft. But it avoided precipitating military conflict. If it dispatches military aircraft to the Diaoyutai Islands, then the conflict will swiftly escalate. A dispute between the Mainland and Japan, will become a dispute between the Mainland and a Japan-US alliance. The United States has declared that the Diaoyutai Islands are covered by the US-Japan Security Treaty. The United States will not allow the Mainland to break through the first island chain if strategically possible.

Mainland national policy calls for stablity and growth. The outbreak of military conflict with the United States would undermine economic development, provoke to social unrest, and even endanger the regime.

The 3D cruise involved sea and air. All that remains is land. If the Mainland Oceanic Administration makes a landing on the Diaoyutai Islands, the Japanese will escalate even further. Open conflict could ensue. A handful of civilian fishing boats landing on the Diaoyutai Islands and planting flags is one thing. This would be something else altogether. 

So far the Mainland authorities have not allowed civilians from the Mainland to land on the Diaoyutai Islands. Those who made landings were from Taiwan and Hong Kong. Mainland China's peaceful rise is the focus of global attention. If and when it makes its move, it will be a world-shaking event. The impact would be all pervasive.

That said, the trend is evident. Japan's economy remains in the doldrums. Its national strength has been diluted. All it can do is to follow the US lead. But the United States also has feet of clay. It can barely keep its economy afloat. Its role as a global power is significantly diminished. The Mainland is trumpeting peaceful development. Its national strength grows day by day. In response to this controversy involving a handful of small islands, it has taken the initiative and made its move. Japan remains passive. It can only wring its hands. Changes in the Asian-Pacific strategic picture may well begin in the Diaoyutai Islands.

大陸海空捍衛釣魚台 牽動亞太變局
    2012-12-16
    中國時報

　正當日本處於大選而極可能變天的關鍵時刻，中國大陸首度出動巡邏機進入釣魚台領空，捍衛主權。日本戰機緊急升空攔截，雖未發生衝突，但雙方環繞釣魚台的對峙顯然益趨尖銳，同時牽動的是整個亞太勢力版圖的重組。

　中日這波釣魚台爭議，係前東京都知事石原慎太郎喊出購島挑起。一旦挑起，喚起中國人歷史記憶，新仇舊恨，要把總帳算個清楚。日本以美日安保條約涵蓋釣魚台，有恃無恐；大陸卻在爭取時間，蓄積實力，如今時機似漸趨成熟。

　此外，在戰略布局上，美國延太平洋西岸對中國大陸布下第一島鏈，防堵其自由進出太平洋。日本右派的民粹操弄，激化釣魚台爭議與大陸民眾反日情緒，給大陸找到進出釣台海域宣示主權、同時突破第一島鏈的著力點。

　中國大陸主動出招，一招接一招，日本被動接招，重心在爭取美國介入，以美日安保條約涵蓋釣魚台牽制大陸。

　這一、二年來，大陸海監船比以往更加頻繁地進入釣魚台海域；今年九月東京宣布將釣魚台國有化前，北京搶先發布釣魚台列嶼領海基線，並向聯合國提交基點基線座標表、海圖和大陸棚劃界案，接著又公布釣魚台及周邊海域部分地理實體標準名稱。這一連串動作皆依據國際法，按部就班鋪陳其對釣魚台主權的法理依據。

　十二月十三日，南京大屠殺七十五周年，大陸的國家海洋局派出海監巡邏機，飛到釣魚台南方十五公里處領空，釣魚台之爭因此進入全新階段。

　自一九五八年以來，中國的飛機就不曾進入該區領空。十二月十三日，日本自衛隊的雷達未即時偵察到大陸海洋局的巡邏機，稍後發現時大為震驚，緊急派出八架F-15戰機和一架預警機升空攔截，抵達時大陸海洋局的巡邏機已離開。

　日方事後雖立即強烈抗議，但中方認定海監巡邏機是在其領土釣魚台巡航，自屬正常，北京外交部發言人洪磊還要日方「停止在釣島海域、空域的非法活動」，海洋局人士更形容這次飛機出動為「首次海空立體巡航。」

　中國大陸這回派出的是海洋局海監巡邏機，不是軍機，但從之前的海監船、軍艦的進入釣魚台海域，到現在的「首次海空立體巡航」，突出空中巡航，顯然是在步步進逼。

　一來是更強勢宣示擁有釣魚台的主權，二來讓進出釣魚台領海領空更加常態化，三是展現不畏升高衝突的決心，四在建立功績鞏固當前領導人的地位，五來反擊美國在亞太的新圍堵。藉著釣魚台這個跳板，中國大陸穩步前進，只要不引發軍事衝突，能前進多少算多少。

　中國大陸出動巡邏機，有意避開軍事衝突，因為一旦出動軍機，釣魚台問題就會從中日之爭頓時升高到中、日、美對峙。美國已公開宣示，釣魚台屬於美日安保條約之共同防禦範圍；戰略上，只要美國有能力，就不會容許針對中國大陸的第一島鏈在釣魚台遭突破。

　大陸目前仍以穩定與成長為國家政策主軸，此時與美國爆發軍事衝突，必然波及經濟發展，導致社會動盪，甚至危及其政權。

　「立體巡航」，「海」、「空」後顯然就剩「陸」了。如果中國大陸海洋局進一步登上釣魚台探勘，勢必面對日方更激烈阻擋，可能爆發的衝突規模，遠非兩岸幾艘民間保釣船登島插旗所能比擬。

　截至目前，中國大陸不支持自己民眾直接登島保釣，成行的都是台港人士，這也是因為大陸和平崛起後動見觀瞻，一旦出手就是撼動全球的大事，其衝擊將是全方位的。

　即使如此，當前的態勢已很明顯，日本經濟滑坡，國力大不如前，唯美國馬首是瞻，但美國也泥菩薩過江，勉強支應國內經濟與全球強權角色已顯力不從心，大陸此時高唱和平發展，國力日強，面對這幾個小島的爭議，主動出招，處於被動的日方，則只能繃緊神經因應。縱觀整個亞太形勢，未來的新變局可能就從釣魚台開始。