Abe's Total Government: Blessing or Nightmare?

Abe's Total Government: Blessing or Nightmare?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
July 23, 2013 

Summary: Shinzo Abe led the Liberal Democratic Party to a victory in the parliamentary election. For Japan, this may be deeply gratifying. But for other countries, it is deeply worrisome. Will LDP total government take Japan down the highway towards national prospertiy, or down the blind alley towards militarism? Is a blessing for Japan, or a nightmare for Japan's neighbors? The answer depends on Abe, and his whims.

Full text below:

Shinzo Abe led the Liberal Democratic Party to a victory in the parliamentary election. For Japan, this may be deeply gratifying. But for other countries, it is deeply worrisome.

For Japan, this election ended the seven year anomaly known as the "Twisted Diet." It enabled Japan to extricate itself from the "short-lived cabinet" quagmire. This, coupled with a turnaround in the Japanese economy, may make Abe's "total government" feel like a blessing for the Japanese people. But other countries will probably see it as a nightmare. During his campaign, Abe trumpeted "territorial defense" and the overthrow of Japan's Peace Constitution. Abe has achieved total control of both upper and lower houses of parliament. His next move could inspire unprecedented region-wide anxiety.

There is only one Abe. But there are two interpretations of what Abe represents. These are derived mainly from two competing theses within Japan. One is the "wealthy nation thesis." The other is the "strong military thesis." The conflict between these two theses has resulted in two very different conclusions about the recent parliamentary election, at home and abroad.

The "wealthy nation thesis" argues that an end to the "Twisted Diet," and total LDP control over both houses is essential. Together, they will allow Abe to implement structural reforms and enable Japan's economy to experience a full recovery. Only a strong economy will enable Japan to reclaim its former glory as a great nation. In other words, the "wealthy nation thesis" views the parliamentary election as Japan's "revolving door" to major economic power status.

The "strong military thesis" views Abenomics as a prelude to Japan's "national normalization." It views the Japanese archipelago as a forward outpost against the Chinese mainland's eastward military advance. Abenomics will enable Japan's recovery. Japan can then engage in "territorial defense" and the fundamental work of constitutional revision. In other words, the "strong military thesis" views the parliamentary victory as a "stepping stone" for Japan's military buildup.

Both the revolving door and stepping stone require more than domestic support. They require international support. Abe clings to domestic support for the "wealthy nation thesis." He ignores the "strong military thesis" mindset. His endless invocation of the constitutional revision issue is purely for domestic consumption, to bolster his public support. No wonder Japanese animation master Hayao Miyazaki criticized Abe, saying that Abe's national normalization rhetoric targeted only domestic audiences. Every time Abe goes abroad, he changes his tune. Clearly the "strong military thesis" is a phony issue. Only the "wealthy nation thesis" is a true issue.

Unfortunately, with Abe waving the banner of territorial defense, national sovereignty, and ultranationalism, the "wealthy nation thesis" has gradually been marginalized. This has had a chilling effect on the "wealthy nation thesis" among the Japanese public. Ultranationalism has drugged the public. Imaginary "strong military policies" have become hot political topics. It has drugged Japanese right-wingers. It has drugged the LDP. It has even drugged Abe himself.

Abe has created two myths. First, he has falsely equated his parliamentary victory with public support for constitutional revision. In fact, the Japanese people supported the LDP in two successive elections, primarily to escape the nightmare of short-lived cabinets. They wanted to help Abe implement economic reforms. They did not necessarily support constitutional revision. According to an NHK poll, nearly 56% of the public wanted Abe to receive an absolute majority. But only 26% of the people want to revise the constitution. This sums it up.

Secondly, Able mistakenly concluded that Liberal Democratic Party "total government" meant it could revise the constitution as it pleased. the parliamentary victory gave the LDP control over half the seats in both the upper and lower houses. But that is a long way off from the two-thirds supermajority required for constitutional revision. The ruling coalition that the LDP belongs to includes the "New Komeito Party," which opposes constitutional revision. The "Japan Restoration Party" supports constitutional revision, but holds too few seats. Furthermore, even if the parliament revises the constitution, it must still be subjected to a national referendum. The public lacks consensus. Wanton promotion of constitutional revision would surely lead to a new wave of controversy and crises.

Abe's dream of constitutional revision is a long way from realization. But it has already become a nightmare for neighboring countries. The United States sees Abe's victory as Japanese public support for constitutional revision. Mainland China worries that once Abe achieves "total government," constitutional revision will become a runaway train. South Korea views increased Japanese military power as a tsunami that will upset the regional balance of power.

For Japanese nationals, the parliamentary victory is the end of the "Twisted Diet," and the beginning of economic reform. It is not necessarily the beginning of constitutional revision. Will LDP total government take Japan down the highway towards national prospertiy, or down the blind alley towards militarism? Is a blessing for Japan, or a nightmare for Japan's neighbors? The answer depends on Abe, and his whims.

安倍完全執政是恩典還是夢魘？
【聯合報╱社論】
2013.07.23 01:58 am

安倍所帶領的自民黨在這次參議院選舉大獲全勝，對日本來說，這或許是可喜之事；但對國際來說，卻是憂慮居多。

對日本而言，這次選舉終結長達七年「扭曲國會」的畸態，讓日本跳脫「短命內閣」的泥沼，加上日本經濟出現復甦的轉機，安倍的完全執政似乎是給日本的莫大恩典。但在國際看來，選前大肆宣揚護土、修憲的安倍，在參眾兩院都取得絕對主導權後，他的下一步行動，可能讓區域陷入前所未有的不安，安倍的完全執政極可能成為國際社會的夢魘。

一個安倍，卻出現兩種截然不同的解讀，主要是源自於日本國內出現「富國論」與「強兵論」兩種不同的路線之爭；而這兩條路線之爭，讓這次參院大選在國內與國際產生截然不同的政治想像。

「富國論」認為，唯有終結扭曲國會，讓自民黨在兩院取得完全的主導權，安倍才能強力主導經濟結構的改革，日本經濟才有完全復甦的可能，也唯有強大的經濟，才能讓日本重新找回昔日大國的風光。亦即，「富國論」是把這次參議院選舉當成是日本重回經濟大國的「旋轉門」。

「強兵論」則把安倍經濟學當成是日本「國家正常化」的首部曲，把日本列島當成是防禦中國大陸軍事力量東進的前哨站；在安倍經濟學讓日本復甦之後，接下來當然要開始進行護土、修憲的根本大業。亦即，「強兵論」是把這次的參院大選當成日本擴軍的「墊腳石」。

但不論是旋轉門或是墊腳石，除了需要國內民意的支持，還要能夠走出國門，得到國際的認同。而安倍緊抓住國民支持日本富國、不關心強兵的心理，不斷把修憲議題出口轉內銷，來壯大自己的民意支持。這也難怪日本動漫大師宮崎駿批評說：安倍的國家正常化論調，其實只是說給國內民眾聽的；因為每次只要一踏出國門，安倍便會開始改口。可見，「強兵論」只是一個假議題，「富國論」才是真議題。

遺憾的是，在安倍揮舞著領土、主權及建軍的民族主義大旗下，務實的富國議題逐漸被邊緣化，使抱持「富國論」者在日本輿論界噤若寒蟬；而在民族主義麻藥的操弄下，虛幻的強兵政見卻發展成熱門議題，不但麻醉了日本右翼，也麻醉了自民黨，更麻醉了安倍自己。

在這種情況下，安倍遂產生了兩個迷思。首先，是誤認參議院大選獲勝等同於民意贊同修憲。事實上，日本民眾之所以接連在兩次選舉中支持自民黨，主要是希望打破過去短命首相的惡夢，讓安倍能夠更安穩地推動經濟改革，這未必代表日本人民支持修憲。根據日本ＮＨＫ的民調，日本有將近五六％的民眾希望安倍政府過半，但只有廿六％的民眾希望修改憲法，由此可見一斑。

其次，是誤以為自民黨完全執政，便等同於可以恣意修憲。經過這次參議院大選，自民黨雖然在參、眾兩院同時取得過半席次，但距離三分之二的修憲門檻仍有相當差距；同時，與自民黨同屬執政聯盟的「公明黨」反對修憲，而支持修憲的「維新會」在參議院的席次又過少。進一步說，縱使國會通過修憲案，還要送交全民複決；在民意缺乏共識下，若恣意推動修憲案，勢必引發新一波的朝野對決危機。

安倍的修憲大夢，雖然離實現還有很長的一段距離，但卻已成為周邊國家揮之不去的夢魘了。美國將這次安倍的勝選，視為日本民眾對修憲議題投下贊成票；而中國大陸則擔心安倍在取得完全執政之後，修憲問題將會如脫韁野馬般一發不可收拾；韓國方面，更把日本軍事強國化視為攪動區域平衡的大海嘯。

由此看來，這次參議院大選，對日本國民來說，只能視為「扭曲國會」的終結，是啟動經濟改革的起點，卻未必是啟動修憲的起點。而這次自民黨的完全執政，究竟會把日本帶向富國之路，還是走回昔日強兵的歧途；它究竟是日本的恩典，還是會變成國際的夢魘，全繫乎安倍的一念之間。