Clean Up the Mess, Before It Gets Even Worse

Clean Up the Mess, Before It Gets Even Worse
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 1, 2009

That Taipei County Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei's approval ratings are in the cellar is not news. They have been low from his first year in office. Even going into the mountains to catch a tiger did nothing to improve his ratings. His ratings have been low for three years. But the KMT has never taken the problem seriously. It never bothered to think about how to help him. Only when the Democratic Progressive Party floated the notion of Su Tseng-chang returning to run in the year end Taipei County Magistrate Election, did Chou Hsi-wei's poll numbers alarm the Kuomintang. It's ironic. Green Camp "Prince" Su Tseng-chang is the reason Chou Hsi-wei's approval ratings fell so far. They fell so far the KMT blasted him constantly. But Su Tseng-chang is also the reason the KMT in unable to replace Chou for now. No Blue Camp "Prince" is willing to go head to head with Su. Others watching from the sidelines have expressed a desire to run. But their poll numbers range from 1% to 5%, many times worse than Chou Hsi-wei's.

The Kuomintang has been back in power less than a year. But it has already back to its old tricks. It is again "expert at fighting one's comrades, but amateurs at fighting one's enemies." Unable to win against the Democratic Progressive Party, its officials float rumors undermining their own comrades. The KMT is a perverse party that never learns its lessons. Party Chairman Wu Po-hsiung loves to go on about how "United we may not win, but disunited we will surely lose." He is talking to himself. No one inside the party listens to this old chairman's dire warnings. The KMT, like the DPP, doesn't understand that being in power and being in the opposition are not the same. The public has dramatically different expectations of those in power. When the KMT lost control of the central government, the KMT's younger generation "Princes" ran for county magistrates and city mayors. The KMT chose not to "airdrop" senior officials into these positions. These younger generation "Princes" had little hope of winning these County Magistrate and City Mayor Elections. But eight years ago they entered the fray and held down the fort. During its eight years in the political wilderness, the KMT failed to cultivate any new talent. When it returned to power, it fell back on the same old political appointees. Its political campaigns were still being fought by these same younger generation "Princes." More senior party officials who did nothing for eight years, thought only about jockeying for official appointments amidst the turmoil. Based on their poll numbers, if any of them were actually to go into battle, the casualty reports would read: KIA (Killed in Action).

So what can the KMT do? Would "airdropping" younger generation candidates into these local elections do the trick? For example, Taoyuan County Magistrate Chu Li-lun and Taichung Mayor Jason Hu are two of the names most frequently mentioned by the KMT leadership. If they are to run for Taipei County Magistrate, they will have to transfer their residency to Taipei County by June. They would no longer be qualified to serve in Taoyuan County and Taichung City. To Taoyuan County and Taichung City citizens, it would look as if the KMT cared only about Taipei County, and nothing about them. This is hardly an impression the KMT can afford to leave. Not to mention the public probably wants them to join the Central Government in order to develop their full potential. The KMT habitually strands its talent at the local level. This is not right.

Former governor James Soong, who has been out of the picture, has been trotted out as a heavyweight able to defeat Su Tseng-chang. When James Soong was elected governor he ascended to the peak of his political career. Ever since then he has been a hard luck case. The provincial government was frozen. He lost the Presidential Election as a result of the Chung Hsing Bills case. One can hardly blame him for fulminating as Chen Shui-bian engaged in eight years of wholesale corruption and money-laundering. During these eight years not a single office he aspired to, from Premier to Taipei Mayor, has come to fruition.

It's not that James Soong shouldn't run for Taipei County Magistrate. The Democratic Progressive Party wants former County Commissioner Chen Tang-shan to run in the Tainan County Commissioner's race. If he can run, why can't James Soong? Chou Hsi-wei was one of Soong's loyal soldiers. If Soong chooses to run, how can Chou oppose him? The problem is that ever since the provincial government was frozen, the KMT has been unwilling to accommodate Soong. It has no problem maintaining amicable relations with him. But no one in the KMT is willing to allow Soong to wield real power, even a humble local office. Most importantly, the People First Party dissolved itself and joined the KMT. James Soong, who was once a member of the KMT's center of power, declared that he was quitting politics. He has yet to return to the KMT. To expect him to participate in the KMT primaries is impossible, Even if Soong were drafted, would he really be willing to run under the KMT banner again? Given James Soong's political character, the KMT would have to do more than merely ask him before he would consent.

The KMT knows Chou Hsi-wei may have trouble winning a second term, but it has yet to find a solution to the problem. Instead, it has stupidly used poll results to pressure Chou Hsi-wei. Unfortunately this will neither force Chou to back down, nor produce a better replacement. The result has been chaos. Chou Hsi-wei has openly vented his anger, blasting the party leadership for undermining him. The KMT probably never intended to undermine Chou. Its undermining of Chou was probably unintentional, the result of stupidity. It also undermined itself, turning the KMT into an object of ridicule.

Taipei County is Taiwan's largest county. It boasts the largest population. Whoever wins Taipei County is halfway to winning the Presidential Election. Put simply, in the year-end elections, other constituencies are small fry. Minor changes may take place, but the bigger picture is set. The difference between losing and winning will be slight. The key to success or failure will be Taipei County. It is the region most likely to become a vote of confidence in the Ma administration and the Liu cabinet. Even Chou Hsi-wei understands the heavy burden on his shoulders. Even he cannot afford defeat. As long as the KMT is truly determined to win this election, Chou Hsi-wei entering or withdrawing from the race is not the issue. The issue is whether the KMT is truly determined. The party chairman must do more than merely repeat calls for "unity." If the KMT lacks determination, its plight will only worsen. It's not as if the KMT has never lost. But is the KMT really willing to be blasted as incompetent?

中國時報 　2009.04.01
處理不了這個亂局 繼續擺爛吧
本報訊


台北縣長周錫瑋施政滿意度低，不是新聞，從他就任第一年開始，始終盤桓低點，上山打老虎都沒救，民調低了三年多，國民黨從來不當回事，沒人動念如何出手幫他，直到民進黨迸出前縣長蘇貞昌可能回鍋參選年底縣市長，周錫瑋的民調數字，天崩地裂般驚醒了國民黨。絕的是，因為綠天王蘇貞昌，周錫瑋的支持度被國民黨嫌到臭頭；卻也因為蘇貞昌，此刻還換不下周，因為藍天王沒人有這個意願與蘇對決，至於看著爐子喊燒，也表態想選的人，民調數字從一％到五％，比周錫瑋難看不知多少倍。

重新執政的國民黨，一年不到，又開始玩著內鬥內行、外鬥外行的把戲，競選贏不了民進黨，放話肯定整得倒同志。國民黨這個怪黨，從來學不會生聚教訓，黨主席吳伯雄老愛掛在嘴邊的一句話，「團結不一定贏，不團結肯定輸」，彷彿只是說給自己聽的笑話，黨內沒人理這個老主席的苦心孤詣。國民黨也搞不清楚，在野與執政形勢不同，民意期待也大不相同。當年中生代天王投入縣市長選舉，因為國民黨輸掉中央政權，不搞戰將空降，地方縣市長選舉幾無勝選空間，這群戰將八年前投入選舉，為國民黨守住一席之地，在野八年，國民黨什麼人才都沒培養，重新執政靠得是老政務官，打選戰數數還是這群中生代，至於八年中沒有立下汗馬功勞的黨內人士，一腦袋想的還是分官授爵之事，看看自己能不能在人多嘴雜的亂局中，分得一官半職，真要他們披掛上陣，從民調數字看只能用四個字形容：立馬陣亡。

國民黨能怎麼辦呢？中生代空降還有用嗎？隨便舉例，被國民黨高層提到最多的桃園縣長朱立倫、台中市長胡志強，若要參選台北縣，立刻面臨六月即要遷戶籍而喪失現任縣市長資格，對桃園、台中民眾而言，國民黨要北縣不要他們，觀感上不會好；遑論民意可能更期待他們進入中央發揮政務長才，國民黨老把人才留在地方也不是辦法。

一籌莫展中，前省長宋楚瑜又被提起，是可以打敗蘇貞昌的戰將。宋楚瑜從當選省長那一刻起，攀上了個人政治生涯的高峰，從此一路倒楣，省被凍掉不說，總統大選硬是被興票案擊退，看到當總統八年的陳水扁弊案如此之多，海外洗錢金額之巨，沒氣到吐血也怪，這八年多來，任何職務都有好事者點名，從行政院長到競選台北市長不一而足，就從沒成真過。

宋楚瑜不是不能競選台北縣長，民進黨出了個老縣長陳唐山要回鍋選台南縣，誰還敢說宋楚瑜老？周錫瑋是宋的子弟兵，宋要選，周敢說不服嗎？問題是，從凍省開始，國民黨就沒這個度量容宋，保持友好不是問題，真要讓宋再掌握實權，即使這個權只是區區地方父母官，國民黨人沒一個甘願；最重要的，親民黨棄橘投藍，唯獨這個宣布要淡出政壇、曾是國民黨權力最核心的宋楚瑜，猶未回黨，要宋參與國民黨初選不可能，即令徵召宋，宋到底肯不肯再掛藍旗？以宋楚瑜的政治性格，可能也不是國民黨一句話就能讓宋低頭。

國民黨看到了周錫瑋連任的危機，卻找不出辦法因應，甚至用了最笨的辦法不斷以民調對周錫瑋施壓，問題是逼退不了周又找不出強棒出馬，鬧得黨內一團亂，周錫瑋公開翻臉，痛批黨中央整人。國民黨大概沒這心要整周，只是笨到整了周錫瑋，也整了自己，讓外人看國民黨笑話。

台北縣是全台最大縣，人口數最多，贏得台北縣就穩住大半個總統大選，簡單講，年底縣市長選舉其他選區是小局有變數但基本盤穩定，輸贏落差不大，成敗指標就是台北縣，也最容易成為民意對馬劉團隊的抒發標的，包括周錫瑋都看得到自己肩膀上的重任，也擔不起敗選重責，只要國民黨真有心打贏這場選戰，周錫瑋的進退根本不是問題，真正的問題是：國民黨有心嗎？「團結」不能只是黨主席的口頭禪，國民黨若沒心，就繼續擺爛，橫豎國民黨又不是沒輸過，只是，國民黨甘心被民意指著鼻子罵無能嗎？