Tsai Ing-wen's Justification as DPP Chairperson Shattered

Tsai Ing-wen's Justification as DPP Chairperson Shattered
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
May 15, 2009

Yesterday Tsai Ing-wen visited Chen Shui-bian at the Taipei Detention Center. To understand the meaning of her gesture, we need ask only, "What would have happened if Tsai Ing-wen refused to visit Chen Shui-bian?"

Everyones' attention has been focused on President Ma Ying-jeou's first year in office. But DPP Chairman Tsai Ing-wen has also been DPP Chairperson for one year. One year ago, Tsai Ing-wen vowed to lead the DPP toward an "Era without Chen Shui-bian." But one year later, as an anniversary present, Tsai Ing-wen has actually visited the Taipei Detention Center.

Pale Green elements at all levels, reformist elements within the party, centrist voters, and others who still have expectations of the Democratic Progressive Party, have hoped that as DPP Chairperson, Tsai Ing-wen could lead the DPP out of the shadow of Chen Shui-bian. When she took office a year ago, she said that only by soul-searching can the DPP regain the public trust. But yesterday, when Tsai Ing-wen marched into the Taipei Detention Center, she symbolically signaled that the hopes of distancing the DPP from Chen Shui-bian over the past year have been shattered. Tsai Ing-wen's justification as DPP Chairman has also been shattered.

Politicians who hold important positions know that their political image depends on an implicit contract with society. Tsai Ing-wen's political image was predicated upon ridding the Democratic Progressive Party of Chen influences, on meeting the needs of the party and the expectations of society. This is the contract Chairman Tsai Ing-wen reached with reformers within the party and mainstream society. Today however, Tsai Ing-wen submitted her instrument of surrender to Chen Shui-bian. Her raison d'etre as DPP Chairperson has been nullified. Did Tsai Ing-wen betray her promise to reform the Democratic Progressive Party? Or did the DPP destroy Tsai Ing-wen?

Looking back, what would have happened had Tsai Ing-wen refused to visit Chen Shui-bian? The problem is Chen Shui-bian has used the May 17 protest march to take Tsai Ing-wen hostage. Tsai Ing-wen envisioned the May 17 march as an opportunity to "Denounce Ma, Defend Taiwan." But Chen Shui-bian and Taiwan independence forces have used the event to "Denounce Tsai, Defend Ah-Bian." First, Taiwan independence elements threatened to stage their own, separate protest in southern Taiwan. Next, Chen Shui-bian called for north and south to join forces. He called for Taiwan independence forces in the south to end their march in Kaohsiung and head north. One can imagine the "support Chen Shui-bian" and "denounce Tsai" slogans and incidents that were likely to occur. During past demonstrations, Tsai Ing-wen forbade support Chen Shui-bian banners and gestures. But this line of defense has now been broken. If Tsai were to hold firm, the denunciations of Tsai on May 17 would be ugly indeed.

Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the Taipei Detention Center was an attempt to preempt potential protests against her during the march. Gathered crowds have repeatedly asked her why she hadn't visited Chen Shui-bian. They denounced her as "heartless," right to her face. If Tsai Ing-wen did not bow to them, all sorts of embarrassing denunciations of Tsai were likely to occur. But on the other hand, this May 17 "Denounce Ma" march has become a kind of anvil on which Tsai Ing-wen's political image is being reforged. Tsai Ing-wen has effectively shredded her contract with society. Tsai Ing-wen, from this day hence, will no longer be the Tsai Ing-wen on whom so many people pinned their hopes.

This visit was obviously arranged. Frank Hsieh was first in line. Su Tseng-chang was second, but could not see him due to visiting restrictions. As a result Tsai and Su both went yesterday. Hsieh, Su, and Tsai have not been to the Taipei Detention Center in over one hundred days. Obviously they each have their own political calculus. But for each of them to schedule visits now was of course by mutual agreement. Each of them is looking after his or her own interests. If we look at past protest marches, Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP Central Committee's impregnable line of defense has now been breached in a hundred different places. Chen Shui-bian and Taiwan independence forces are now on the offensive. They once had to bite their tongues. Now they are the tail wagging the dog. Now they are in control. Taiwan independence forces want not merely to protest that Chen Shui-bian has been a victim of injustice. They want to hold Chen Shui-bian up as the spiritual leader of the DPP and the Taiwan independence movement. They have hijacked every Green Camp protest march held since last year's march on May 20. Again and again, they have used protests agains Ma as opportunities to further their own agenda. They have finally succeeded in forcing Tsai Ing-wen to visit the Taipei Detention Center. They have successfully transformed the protests into a denunciation of Tsai and a defense of Ah-Bian. Yesterday, when Tsai Ing-wen marched into the Taipei Detention Center, she effectively conceded leadership to Chen Shui-bian and the forces of Taiwan independence forces. Was this Tsai Ing-wen's intent when she orginally sought the party chairmanship last year? Is this the implicit contract drawn up between Tsai Ing-wen and reformers within the party and mainstream society?

We can now attempt to answer this question. What would have happened had Tsai Ing-wen refused to visit the Taipei Detention Center? Had she refused to visit the Taipei Detention Center, Taiwan independence forces would have used May 17 to force a showdown with her. She would have been put on the spot. The march would have been ruined. Therefore it is reasonable to speculate that Tsai Ing-wen visited the Taipei Detention Center in exchange for promises from Taiwan independence forces not to provoke a showdown on May 17. Tsai Ing-wen's status as chairperson and her political future requires the recognition and blessing of Chen Shui-bian and Taiwan independence elements.

Yesterday Tsai Ing-wen's raison d'etre as DPP Party Chairperson was shattered.

蔡英文出任黨主席的應有意義已告破滅
【聯合報╱社論】
2009.05.15 06:03 am

蔡英文昨日赴北所探視陳水扁。欲解讀此事，可先反問：如果蔡英文不去看陳水扁，會怎樣？

大家都只注意馬英九總統就職一周年，其實蔡英文出任民進黨主席也已一周年了。一年前，蔡英文宣示要帶領民進黨邁向「沒有陳水扁的時代」；但是，一年後，蔡英文卻以赴北所探監作為她就職周年的政治獻禮。

蔡英文出任民進黨主席，對於不論淺綠階層、黨內改革派，或中間選民，及社會上對民進黨尚有善意期許者而言，最大的期待就是希望她能帶領民進黨走出陳水扁的陰影。正如她在一年前就職時所說：只有反省，重拾人民對民進黨的信賴。然而，當蔡英文昨日一腳踏進了北所，象徵著她一年來意欲與陳水扁切割的作為已經失敗；事既至此，蔡英文之所以出任民進黨主席的應有意義亦告破滅！

任何位居要津的政治人物，其政治品牌皆是建立在社會共同認知的政治契約之上；而蔡英文的政治品牌，無疑是建立在帶領民進黨「去扁化」的黨內實際需要及社會期待之上。這就是蔡英文主席與黨內改革派及台灣主流社會之間的政治契約。然而，如今蔡英文既然向陳水扁遞上降書，她出任民進黨主席的應有意義自告破滅。這是蔡英文辜負了她應當承擔的民進黨改革大業？還是民進黨毀了蔡英文？

回過頭來談，如果蔡英文不去看陳水扁，會怎樣？問題是在陳水扁藉五一七遊行挾持了蔡英文。蔡英文原以為五一七是「嗆馬保台」，但陳水扁及獨派卻將之用為「嗆蔡挺扁」的政治槓桿。第一步，獨派揚言南北拚場，分道揚鑣；第二步，陳水扁呼籲南北合流，獨派南場結束高雄遊行後北上會師。可以想像，屆時挺扁標語及嗆蔡的場景皆可能出現。在過去幾場遊行中，蔡英文曾禁止挺扁的標語及動作出現，但這個防線如今已經潰破，蔡若仍力拒，五一七嗆蔡的場面必定十分難看！

蔡英文赴北所探監，其實是對遊行中可能出現的嗆蔡場面預作安撫。過去，她曾多次被群眾質問：「為何不去看扁？」並當面斥她「無情」。蔡英文若再不向這些群眾低頭，五一七就可能出現極為難堪的嗆蔡場面。然而，如此一來，這一場「嗆馬」的五一七遊行，竟然成了蔡英文品牌形象的刀砧，不啻將出現蔡英文親手當眾撕毀其前述社會契約的場景。今後的蔡英文，已不可能再是從前那個令人有所期待的蔡英文了！

此次的探監動作，顯然經過安排。謝長廷排第一，蘇貞昌排第二天因禁見而沒有去成，遂成了蔡蘇昨日同行的場面。謝蘇蔡百餘日未探監，顯然各有盤算；但如今排班探監，則當然是經三人相互約定而一起撤守防線。觀察過去幾次遊行，蔡英文黨中央的防線由滴水不漏而至破洞百出，陳水扁及獨派的攻勢則是由幾至噤聲到如今尾巴搖狗、喧賓奪主。獨派不只是要聲援陳水扁的司法訴訟，而是根本認為陳水扁才是民進黨及台獨的精神領袖；他們挾持了去年五二○以來的每一場綠營遊行，一次又一次以嗆馬遊行來借力使力，至這次五一七終於把蔡英文逼到北所探監，將之轉化為成功的嗆蔡挺扁。蔡英文昨天走進了北所，形同承認了陳水扁及獨派不可取代的精神領導地位。這是蔡英文一年前出任黨主席的初衷嗎？這是蔡英文與黨內改革派及主流社會之間默認的政治契約嗎？

現在可以嘗試回答蔡英文若不探監會怎樣？若不探監，獨派會藉五一七與蔡攤牌，當場嗆蔡使她下不了台，也毀了大遊行。因而，若謂蔡英文探監其實是化解獨派不藉五一七與她撕破臉的交換條件，亦屬合理的推測。蔡英文的主席地位與政治生命，必須獲得陳水扁及獨派的認可與加持。

蔡英文之所以為蔡英文的意義，在昨天已告破滅！