Direct Administration: The Beginning of Problems and Controversy

Direct Administration: The Beginning of Problems and Controversy
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 25, 2009

Amidst widespread public doubts, President Ma Ying-jeou's proposal for the island's three directly administered municipalities and 15 counties has successfully passed through the gauntlet. The Ministry of the Interior has swiftly approved Taipei County, Taichung County, Taichung City, Kaohsiung County, Kaohsiung City for direct administration. The status of Tainan County and Tainan City has been left to the Executive Yuan. Regardless of what the outcome for Tainan County and Tainan City may be, these upgrades will substantially alter Taiwan's political future. The impact may be as significant as the freezing of the Taiwan Provincial Government. The consequences should not be underestimated. For the foreseeable future, the political ecology of the central government and local governments will undergo significant political changes. These warrant our concern.

First let's look at Taipei City and Taipei County. President Ma originally proposed the establishment of a Northern Capital consisting of Taipei City, Taipei County, and Keelung City. Not only would it include Keelung City, it would treat Taipei City and Taipei County as a single metropolitan area. But Taipei City and Taipei County will now each be classified as an independent metropolitan area. Keelung City will not be included. If one looks at the map, such a districting scheme makes absolutely no sense. It also makes future planning and construction more complex due to geographical factors. When Ma Ying-jeou became Taipei Mayor, his municipal planning proposals encountered stubborn opposition from then Taipei County Executive Su Tseng-chang. But Taipei City had substantially more financial resources and political clout than Taipei County. Therefore it did not lead to excessive friction. But Taipei City and Taipei County may one day be ruled by rival political parties. Taipei City and Taipei County may one day have roughly the same financial resources. The administration of their MRT systems, rivers and streams, water supply, and school districts may lead to significant conflict. Today the Executive Yuan has agreed to a two "concentric circles" scheme dividing the two municipalities. But the two "concentric circles" may well turn into two "eccentric circles."

Next, let's compare the political power of the central government and local governments. Once the future heads of the three municipalities have been elected, they will represent at least three million votes, and perhaps as many as six million votes. But the Premiership is a non-elective office. When the central government needs to coordinate local affairs, a Premier without a voter base will confront the Mayor of a Directly Administered Municipality with a broad voter base. Such a Premier may find himself or herself at a considerable sdisadvantage. Over the past eight years, the Mayors of Taipei and Kaohsiung have blasted the central government and even threatened to resign over health care costs, the allocation of funds, and other controversial issues. Such confrontations often led to central government surrender. Once so many disparate administrative regions have been established in northern, central, and southern Taiwan, it will be a miracle if a "Yeltsin Effect" does not take over. If 13 or 14 "Yeltsins" align themselves with each other, it will be a simple matter for them to face down the central government. Unless a president with an even larger voter base rides to his rescue on each and every issue, the Premier is going to find his job harder and harder to perform.

Furthermore, counties and cities other than these will find themselves in even weaker positions. The reason cities and counties are in such a hurry to be upgraded is that they are allocated greater resources. Once cities and counties in northern, central, and southern Taiwan are upgraded, they will of course receive more of the budget than before. But since the national budget is fixed, cities and counties other than these will find their budgets reduced. Taipei City and Taipei County actually have Keelung, a "second tier" city sandwiched in between them. South of Kaohsiung City and Kaohsiung County, one will find Pingtung County, another "second tier" region. By referring to these cities and counties as second tier, we are not discriminating against them. We are merely saying they are being treated as such based on the allocation of funds.

President Ma's intention when he proposed upgrading these cities and counties was to boost their development. But even as he raised the status of these cities and counties, he lowered the status of other cities and counties that were not Directly Administered Regions. This was an example of unwitting blindness on the part of the ruling regime.

Actually, as we mentioned in our previous editorial, besides having issues with land planning, the ROC also has issues with central government allocation of funds to local governments. Ideally financial planning ought to be dealt with first. Upgrading should be dealt with later. Until one has determined who will be the wallflowers and who will be the prom queens, everyone should remain in a veil of ignorance. Candidates for upgrading will then be more likely to consider the plight of the losers. They will be more likely to leave more latitude for themselves in the event they fail to make the grade. Once the list of who is to be upgraded is finalized, opposition will set in. To discuss the allocation of resources at this point will lead to a scramble by each region to maximize its piece of the pie. Rational discussion will be impossible. Unfortunately, we have already inverted the sequence. We have already decided which cities and counties will be upgraded. We have ignored the issue of how financial resources will be allocated. The Executive Yuan has inverted its priorities. Will it be hoisted by its own petard? We will know the answer in a few years.

Those familiar with political maneuvering know that realpolitik is hard to grasp. Some things cannot be rushed. Some things cannot be delayed. Some things make sense but cannot be realized. Some things are unreasonable but progress rapidly and inexplicably. Every political pundit said national land planning could not be rushed, that it would take time. But paradoxically it was the very first campaign promise Ma Ying-jeou fulfilled. No one was surprised when it turned out to be a premature baby with birth defects. What price will Taiwan pay for this half-baked county and municipality upgrade plan? No one knows. The upgrading fiasco is testimony to politicians' myopia.

中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2009.06.25
社論－升格是問題與爭議的開始
本報訊

在眾多質疑聲中，馬總統三都十五縣之議輕舟已過萬重山，由內政部火速審查通過了台北縣、台中縣市與高雄縣市三地的升格案；至於台南縣市，則留待行政院裁決。不論台南縣市的裁定結果如何，這些升格案都將大幅改變台灣的政治風貌，其影響之嚴重性恐怕不小於當年的凍省案，後果不可小覷。在可見的未來，中央與地方的政治生態將產生重大改變，值得關注。

首先，我們看台北縣市的問題。馬總統原先主張的北都，是指北北基；它不但包括基隆市、也將台北縣市含在一起視作一個大都市。但是現在的發展，卻是台北市、台北縣各自獨立為市，但基隆市不在其中。從地圖上來看，這樣的行政區劃分不但毫無章法，也使得未來的建設規畫因地理切割而充滿變數。馬英九在當台北市長時，其市政規畫本即與當時的台北縣長蘇貞昌頗多扞格。但當時由於縣市之間財力與實力皆有差距，尚不至於演變成大摩擦。將來萬一台北縣市又分屬不同黨派，而縣市之間財力相當，則不論是捷運、河川、用水、學區等政務，都會產生相當的衝突。今天行政院同意兩個「同心圓」的地理區分設直轄市，將來恐怕是為兩地的「不同心」，留下了伏筆。

其次，再看中央與地方之間的相對勢力，將來三大直轄市的首長都是民選的，其民意基礎少則三百萬票、大則六百萬票，但行政院長身上卻沒有半張選票。當中央要協調地方事務時，沒有民意基礎的院長碰上有廣大民意基礎的直轄市長，官位與氣勢恐怕是難成正比。過去八年，台北與高雄兩個直轄市對於健保費、統籌分配款等爭議，就輕則炮打中央、重則揚言辭職不幹，而相爭的結果經常是中央敗陣。以後一旦北中南有這麼多處藩鎮割據，不發生「葉爾欽效應」才怪。萬一三、四位葉爾欽串連，要扳倒一個中央部會決策其實是易如反掌。除非有民意基礎的總統事事相挺，否則將來的行政院長，絕對是愈來愈難做事。

再就三都之外的其他縣市而言，其處境也會更為弱勢。大家之所以要搶著升格做直轄市，就是因為直轄市分得的資源較多。在北中南三地升格定案之後，他們分得的預算當然會比原來多。但由於國家預算大餅固定，故這三個直轄市以外的地方，其預算當然會減少。我們可以想見，在台北兩個直轄市裡，竟然有一個基隆市的「二線」城市；而在高雄縣市直轄區以南，又有一個「二線」屏東縣。我們說這些縣市是二線，絕不是主觀上的歧視，而是經費分配上的必然。

馬總統推三都，其原意是要以適當的規模拉抬都會的發展，但在拉抬規模的同時，如何避免對其他非都市的貶抑，卻是主政者未能顧及的盲點。

其實，我們在先前的社論也曾提及：台灣除了國土規畫問題之外，另一個重要的問題就是中央地方財政劃分。理想上，這兩個問題的處理順序應該是先處理財政規畫、再處理升格。在還不確定誰是麻雀、誰是鳳凰之前，大家都還身處無知之幕，討論分配問題比較可能為弱勢者設想，也為自己萬一升格不順而留些餘地。一旦升格案確定，大家一翻兩瞪眼，此時再要討論地方財政劃分公式，那就會面臨本位主義的利益爭逐，再難理性討論。不幸的是，我們今天硬是把推案的次序弄反，竟然先通過縣市升格，卻放著財政劃分法不管。行政院這樣的紊亂施政次序，將來會不會是拿石頭砸自己的腳，恐怕一兩年之後就會見真章了。

熟悉政治運作的人都了解，政府部門的事實在抓不準；有些事想快快不起來、有些事想慢慢不下來、有些事有道理沒進度、有些事沒道理卻莫名其妙地進展神速。每個政治評論家都說國土規畫不能急、要慢慢來。但偏偏它卻是馬總統眾多政見中最早產的。早產兒有種種瑕疵大家見怪不怪，但是將來整個台灣要為這不成熟的縣市升格政策付出多少慘痛的代價，那就不知道了。政客之短視，由升格案可見一斑。