Tsai Ing-wen's Attempt to Save the Party has become an Attempt to Save Ah-Bian

Tsai Ing-wen's Attempt to Save the Party has become an Attempt to Save Ah-Bian
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 23, 2009

Tsai Ing-wen assumed the chairmanship of the DPP one year ago. Both she and the public harbored high expectations. Both she and the public hoped she could save the Democratic Progressive Party. Now, one year later, not only has Tsai Ing-wen not saved the party, she is actually launching a "Save Ah-Bian movement."

It is rumored that Tsai Ing-wen is planning a signature drive. She intends to publicly back a signature drive for Chen Shui-bian's release. Such perversions of justice may allow Deep Green elements who support Chen Shui-bian to vent their spleen. But they are tantamount to an admission to mainstream society that Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP can no longer extricate themselves from the "Support Ah-Bian!" and "Save Ah-Bian!" quagmire.

Tsai Ing-wen's approach is to avoid mentioning Chen Shui-bian's corruption, while demanding "due process according to the law" for him. This is akin to tossing away a cup, then attempting to scoop up water without it. Substantive justice and procedural justice are two sides of the same coin. You cannot have the one without the other. Besides, one of the main reasons Chen Shui-bian's trial cannot begin is that he has used every means at his disposal to delay the trial process. This has ensured that the reasons for his detention will not go away. Yesterday Chen Hsing-yu, Chen Chih-chung, and Chao Chien-ming confessed that "their elders instructed them to commit perjury." This shows yet again how widespread the potential for coordinating false testimony may be. Another danger is witnesses reneging on their testimony. Lee Chieh-mu is a good example. And so it goes. The court knows the score. Do Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP really want to use a signature drive to get Chen Shui-bian off scot-free?

The DPP is calling for signatures under the guise of "due process according to the law." But who doesn't know the signature drive is actually a Deep Green appeal on behalf of Chen Shui-bian, asserting his innocence? Besides, the DPP could initiate a signature drive demanding Chen Shui-bian's release. Tomorrow they could demand Chen's release, on the grounds that he is innocent. The day after tomorrow they could demand Chen's pardon, after he has been found guilty, on the grounds of clemency. If Tsai Ing-wen initiates a signature drive demanding Chen Shui-bian's release, the main impact will be to bind herself and the DPP inextricably to the "Save Ah-Bian" juggernaught. There will no end to the matter. She will find herself riding a tiger with no way to dismount.

The county and municipal elections are just around the corner. The DPP's strategy has always been to avoid injecting national issues into local elections. Given its internal and external circumstances this year, this is especially true. Yet the DPP has allowed itself to become entangled in cross-Strait issues, as a result of Chen Chu's visit to the Mainland. It even launched a signature drive demanding a referendum on ECFA. Today it initiated another signature drive for Chen Shui-bian's release. Such moves, coming wave upon wave, merely remind mainstream society that the Democratic Progressive Party has yet to offer a coherent policy on national identity and cross-strait relations. Today, it finds itself bogged down in its "Support Ah-Bian!" and "Save Ah-Bian!" quagmire, unable to extricate itself. The DPP can't even save itself. Does it really expect mainstream society to save the DPP?

One year ago, Tsai Ing-wen told Chen Shui-bian, "You must pay attention, and face justice." A few months ago, Tsai Ing-wen masterminded the Taipei County Executive By-election. She floated Su Tseng-chang' candidacy as a trial balloon. Two months ago, Tsai Ing-wen resolutely opposed the nomination of Chen Tang-shan for Tainan County Executive. She expressed the desire to "eliminate Chen Shui-bian influences" from the party. One month ago, Tsai Ing-wen and Chen Chu co-starred in a Mainland visit drama. They tested the waters, inside and out. But today all that has changed. Chen Chu makes no mention of her trip to the Mainland. Chen Tang-shan sought nomination as the DPP candidate for Tainan County Executive. Chen Shui-bian declared Tainan County the political "epicenter." Su Tseng-chang now sees the Taipei County By-election as the basis for a Chen Shui-bian/Su Tseng-chang Alliance. After which Tsai Ing-wen announced this week her intention to initiate a "Save Ah-Bian!" movement.

Based on the above mentioned political developments, Tsai Ing-wen has clearly gone from saving the DPP to saving Ah-Bian. The Save Ah-Bian signature drive opened Pandora's Box. The number of signatures collected was irrelevant. Whether Chen Shui-bian was released was irrelevant. The "Save Ah-Bian!/Support Ah-Bian!" issue has heated up. If Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP lose control, they will be burned. The more people who sign the petition, the harder Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP will find it to free themselves from the tar baby known as Chen Shui-bian. The apprehensions mainstream society have about Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP will become greater and greater. It will no longer matter why Chen Shui-bian is released. The signature drive has become a red carpet rolled out by the DPP, paving the way to his political restoration. Chen Shui-bian is down but not out. He continues creeping forward. The DPP must deal with him. If Ah-Bian is not released, then the signature drive by pro-Chen forces within the Green Camp will be legitimized and sanctified. Given an inch, they will demand a mile. Tsai Ing-wen and the Democratic Progressive Party will find them insufferable. In particular, if the "Support Ah-Bian/Save Ah-Bian" signature drive becomes linked to the year end county and municipal elections, what will mainstream society make of such a mind-boggling political development?

Taiwan independence is a dead end. Yet Tsai Ing-wen is afraid to jettison Deep Green Taiwan independence elements. Supporting Chen Shui-bian is a dead end. Yet Tsai Ing-wen is afraid to jettison Deep Green pro-Chen elements. Tsai Ing-wen may feel that in order to save the party she must therefore save Ah-Bian. But the signature drive exerting pressure on the courts may not be able to save Ah-Bian. Saving Ah-Bian, by necessity, runs counter to saving the party.

Saving Ah-Bian and saving the party are diametrically opposed. If one saves Ah-Bian, one cannot save the party. If one saves the party, one cannot save Ah-Bian. Tsai Ing-wen, how did you wind up going down this road, one that spells the end of the DPP?

蔡英文動線：救黨變成救扁
【聯合報╱社論】
2009.06.23 05:56 am

蔡英文一年前出任民進黨主席，無論是她的自我期許，或是社會對她的期望，都在希望她能救民進黨。如今，一年過後，非但救黨未成，蔡英文且將在本周發動「救扁運動」。

據稱，蔡英文將發動公民連署，以公開的簽名運動主張停止羈押陳水扁。這種扭曲司法審判的手法，也許可以宣洩深綠群眾的挺扁情緒，卻也不啻是同時向主流社會宣告：蔡英文與民進黨已經不可能從挺扁救扁的內鬥泥淖中自拔。

蔡英文的手法是：不談陳水扁一家的貪腐行為，而稱只是聲援陳水扁的「司法人權」；這猶如丟掉杯子，卻仍想盛住那一杯水。司法審判的實質正義與程序正義，本即互為表裡、互為體用；何況，陳水扁之未能開釋，主因之一正是他自己無所不用其極地拖延阻滯審判進行，使羈押原因難以消失；而昨日陳幸妤、陳致中、趙建銘等人皆當庭承認「長輩指示作偽證」，再度顯示扁案無所不在的串證可能（另如李界木翻供）；如此這般，法院自有裁量，蔡英文及民進黨難道想用簽名運動來開釋陳水扁？

民進黨雖假藉「司法人權」的名義號召簽名，但國人誰人不知其實是為「阿扁無罪」的深綠訴求在張目？何況，今天可以連署開釋陳水扁，明天亦可在宣判前連署阿扁無罪，後天則更可在審判後連署特赦阿扁。蔡英文若推動連署開釋阿扁，主要的效應將是：就此把她自己與民進黨，綁在「救扁戰車」上不得脫身，沒完沒了，騎虎難下。

縣市選舉在即，而避免將地方選舉捲入全國議題，向來是民進黨的戰略樞軸；以今年的內外情勢觀，尤當如此。但是，民進黨卻因陳菊登陸掀起中國政策的議題，又發動ＥＣＦＡ公投連署，如今再引爆開釋阿扁的簽名運動，這一波又一波的風潮，不啻皆在提醒主流社會：民進黨對國家認同與兩岸政策根本未作交代，如今更已深陷挺扁救扁的泥淖不能自拔。民進黨救不了它自己，難道還奢望主流社會救它？

一年前，蔡英文告訴陳水扁，「要專心、認真面對司法」；幾個月前，蔡英文操作台北縣長改選，放出蘇貞昌出馬的空氣；兩個月前，蔡英文堅持反對提名陳唐山競選台南縣長，表達「去扁」的心志；一個月前，蔡英文與陳菊合演登陸大戲，試探內外氣候。但是，如今一切皆已豬羊變色：陳菊登陸連「注意事項」也提不出來，陳唐山出馬則陳水扁已宣布台南縣為「震央」，蘇貞昌更巴望台北縣改制延選而正熱中於「扁蘇聯盟」，接著，蔡英文又將在本周宣布「救扁運動」。

從上文所描繪的政治動線來看，蔡英文很明顯地是從「救黨」，變成了「救扁」。連署救扁運動一旦展開，猶如打開了潘朵拉魔盒。不論連署人數多少，亦不論陳水扁是否開釋，「救扁／挺扁」的議題勢將升溫，而蔡英文及民進黨若操控失度，極可能引火焚身。連署的人愈多，蔡英文及民進黨未來就愈難擺脫陳水扁的糾纏；相對而言，主流社會對蔡及民進黨的疑懼也就愈深。至於陳水扁若不論以什麼因素而開釋，這次簽名運動就成了民進黨為他鋪設的崇隆備至的政治復辟紅地毯，且民進黨將面對陳水扁的「趴趴走」；而扁若不能開釋，則綠營內部挺扁勢力經此次簽名運動的正當化及道德化，得寸進尺，亦恐將使蔡及民進黨未來難以消受。尤其，倘若「挺扁／救扁」因簽名運動與年底縣市選舉連成一氣，主流社會將如何解讀這種匪夷所思的政治異象？

台獨沒有活路，蔡英文卻不敢對深綠群眾丟掉台獨餅乾；挺扁沒有活路，蔡英文也不敢對深綠群眾丟掉挺扁的奶嘴。蔡英文此時或許仍然覺得，她是為了「救黨」而「救扁」；但是，簽名向司法施壓未必能救扁，救扁更必定與「救黨」背道而馳。

「救扁」與「救黨」，南轅北轍。救扁就不能救黨，救黨就不能救扁。蔡英文，妳怎麼會走上這條回頭路，這條置民進黨於死地的路？