The Victor will be the One Victorious over Itself

The Victor will be the One Victorious over Itself
China Times News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 15, 2009

The ruling and opposition parties have both chosen to stagger along at the same snail's pace, making only minor adaptations to changing circumstances. How effective such an approach will be remains uncertain. But their strategies are likely to have far-reaching impacts on the futures of both parties.

Let's talk about the KMT first. Shortly after the first anniversary of his inauguration, President Ma decided to assume the chairmanship of the party. Everyone knows that this decision is rife with risks. On the one hand, the public does not fully support his decision. On the other hand, this move will affect the generational transfer of power. It is also bound to touch a sensitive nerve regarding factional rivalry. Even more importantly, this move will drop Ma Ying-jeou squarely on the front line of the ongoing political struggle. Ma Ying-jeou will no longer be able to evade responsibility for any electoral defeats or policy blunders. Chairman Ma now has the opportunity to force the KMT to continue its reforms. But the KMT could easily ruin President Ma's reputation. This move symbolizes of the official end of President Ma's "Teflon presidency."

These changes in the allocation of power are still in progress. Nevertheless we already see a number of changes. For example, the appointment of the chairman of the Taipei 101 building was full of twists and turns. So was the nomination of county executive and city mayors. President Ma has shown considerable willpower behind the scenes. Make no mistake. Such moves are bound to anger powerful factions within the party. He may even pay a price during the year end county executive and city mayor elections.

But if President Ma refuses to position himself on the front line, then how determined is President Ma to reforming the KMT? If President Ma fails to use his rising popularity to transform the KMT, does he expect to find a better opportunity?

The Democratic Progressive Party must also adapt to its changing circumstances. For the DPP, the forces for change originate from without. Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen must respond. Everyone knows the Democratic Progressive Party has two crosses to bear. One is the ugly reality of Chen Shui-bian's corruption. The other is Deep Green Taiwan independence hardliners' refusal to change. These two factors are bound together as one. By hijacking Deep Green Taiwan independence hardliners, Chen Shui-bian has hijacked the Democratic Progressive Party. The Democratic Progressive Party is caught in a dilemma. Many people within the party consider these two factors their political legacy, rather than albatrosses around the DPP's neck. Outsiders may urge Tsai Ing-wen to distance the party from Chen Shui-bian and Deep Green hardliners as soon as possible. But the Democratic Progressive Party has chosen to respond in a low keyed manner. After all, any rash move could easily split the party. We understand this point completely.

Unfortunately time is not on Chairman Tsai's side. The Democratic Progressive Party has been blasting the Ma administration for being "pro-China." But two prominent DPP county executives and city mayors have announced their intention to visit the mainland. It makes no difference what titles or political rhetoric they might use to rationalize their visits. The impact on the DPP's cross-Strait political platform is irrefutable. Many who have been denounced as "traitors to Taiwan" have begun citing the DPP's mainland visits in their own defense. They have thrown down the gauntlet to Deep Green fundamentalists.

Deep Green Taiwan fundamentalists have struck back. They have demanded that Chen Shui-bian be readmitted to the Democratic Progressive Party. A group of lawyers is reportedly planning to rescue Ah-Bian by emulating the Kaohsiung Incident. These two forces have left Tsai Ing-wen less and less room to maneuveur. But she has proposed abolishing the "Blues Excluded Poll" in the party charter. She has probably scripted her responses to Ah-Bian's prosecution and cross-Strait issues.

No matter how harshly the ruling and opposition parties may criticize each other, they know they are their own worst enemies. In 2000 the KMT lost to its own "black gold" corruption and its own internal schism. Similarly, in 2008, the Democratic Progressive Party lost to its own corruption and Deep Green "Closed Door Policy." Therefore, unless the ruling and opposition parties are willing to bet their own futures on the decadence of their opponent, they had better admit their own failings. They had better overcome their own handicaps. Only then will they be able to take their first steps toward success.

The Republic of China has undergone two consecutive changes in ruling parties. The leaders of both the ruling and opposition parties must not over-estimate the so-called "fundamental" distribution of power. They must not ignore the large number of swing voters and independent voters. These voters are pragmatists. At the critical moment they will make the critical choice. There will no longer be any perennial winners and losers. Whoever has his finger on the pulse of the times, whoever heeds the voice of the majority, will become the hero who writes the next chapter in history.

中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2009.06.15
社論－誰先戰勝自己 誰就是未來贏家
本報訊

同樣都在跌跌撞撞的步伐中，朝野兩黨近日都陷入一場體質緩步微調的抉擇中，成效會如何尚在未定之天，但後續的結果如何，卻可能對兩個政黨未來都有深遠的影響。

先談國民黨這邊。選在就職屆滿一周年後沒多久，馬總統決定重拾對黨務的直接領導權，誰都知道此舉存在著諸多不確定的風險：一方面民間似乎並不十分相挺他這個決定；另一方面，此舉也勢必將牽動世代交替與派閥較勁的敏感神經，當然更重要的是，此舉將迫使馬英九走到政治烽火的第一線，以後不論是選舉成敗乃至政策良窳，馬英九都再沒有推諉迴旋的空間，換言之，馬主席或許有機會驅動著國民黨繼續改革，但國民黨也很有可能整個拖跨馬總統的聲望。講再直接一點，這象徵馬總統「不沾鍋」的時代正式結束了。

儘管這項權力徵調的動作尚在進行中，但我們已經看到了若干改變，例如一○一人事案的峰迴路轉，再例如若干縣市提名人選上的擇善固執等，這其間都讓人感到馬總統幕後若干意志力貫徹的斧鑿痕跡。沒有錯，這種操作勢必會激怒黨內某些實力派系，甚至不排除在年底的縣市長選舉中付出若干代價。

但話再說回來，如果馬總統再不選擇走到第一線，誰又能識讀出馬英九改革國民黨的決心究竟有多少？同樣馬總統若再不利用目前聲望逐漸攀升的機會，引領國民黨變換體質，他還能有什麼更好的時機呢？

幾乎就在同時，民進黨也同樣面臨體質必須調整的衝擊，不同的是這些衝擊是來自外在情勢所逼，蔡英文主席必須有所因應。誰都知道當下民進黨最揮之不去的兩大包袱，一是阿扁的貪腐事實無從迴避，另一則是鐵桿的深綠路線不容調整，而此刻這兩個因素又恰好糾纏在一塊，阿扁擺明著透過綁架深綠路線，進一步綁架整個民進黨。而最令民進黨陷入進退兩難者，是黨內目前還存在著不少人依舊堅持這兩項因素不僅不是包袱，應視做為資產，因而不論外界曾怎麼呼籲蔡英文盡快勇於「切割」，民進黨中央都選擇低調迂迴以對，畢竟稍一操作不慎，很可能就釀成黨內的分裂，這一點，我們倒是完全可以理解。

問題是，時間顯然並不站在蔡主席這邊，就在民進黨使勁痛批馬政府「親中」的同時，民進黨兩個指標性縣市的首長，先後宣布走訪大陸，不論他們使用的名義是什麼，也不論他們用什麼政治修辭加以包裝，綠營的「兩岸論述」面臨衝擊都是不爭的事實，而若干曾被深綠團體冠上「寇」的人士，已經開始利用這個槓桿鼓動路線辯論，擺明著就是要挑戰深綠的「基本教義」。

在此同時，深綠也藉著推動陳水扁重返民進黨加以反撲，一個循美麗島模式組律師團救扁的傳言一度甚囂塵上。面對這兩股相反力量的衝擊，蔡英文能夠迴旋的空間坦白說已經越來越小，但從她引導廢除「排藍民調」的動作看來，接下來該怎麼處理扁的議題，怎麼處理「兩岸論述」，相信也該有譜了。

要知道，不論朝野兩黨怎麼嚴辭的批判對手，他們都該清楚，一直以來最難纏的對手其實就是自己，二○○○年的國民黨其實是輸在自己的黑金、分裂與向下沉淪上，同樣二○○八年的民進黨也是斷送在自己的貪腐與深綠鎖國上。所以，除非朝野兩黨都期待將自己的未來，完全寄託在對手的墮落與沉淪上，否則還是先好好面對自己的包袱吧，先戰勝了自己，也就能邁出成功的第一步了。

台灣在經歷過兩次政黨輪替之後，相信朝野兩黨的主事者都心知肚明，不論再怎麼高估所謂政黨的基本盤，都不能否認台灣確實存在著為數不少浮動的中間與獨立選民，這批選民的選擇非常「務實」，也一定會在關鍵時刻做出關鍵選擇。換言之，未來台灣的政黨競爭，不會再有永遠的贏家與輸家，誰有本事能在不同的歷史階段中捕捉到時代的脈動，誰能識讀出最大多數民意的心聲，誰也就有機會爭取到成為下一階段書寫歷史的主角。