DPP Infighting: Opening Pandora's Box behind Closed Doors

DPP Infighting: Opening Pandora's Box behind Closed Doors
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
June 9, 2009

Chen Chu visited the Mainland. Taiwan independence elements bit their tongues. The reason was Taiwan independence elements were weak and in the minority. had they forced an open break, they would merely have exposed their own weaknesses and shortcomings. At this critical moment, they don't even have the courage to bluster. Their silence is deafening.

Chen Chu visited the Mainland. For Democratic Progressive Party pragmatists and reformists, this was tantamount to a gauntlet thrown down to the fundamentalists. Taiwan independence elements are aware the ship is changing course. But they feign ignorance and say nothing. The current struggle between pragmatist/reformists and fundamentalists is different from those in the past. One. Past struggles between the party and Lin Yi-hsiung, Hsu Hsin-liang, or Shih Ming-teh were confined to issues of ideology or style. Tsai Ing-wen on the other hand, allowed Chen Chu to set foot in Beijing and Shanghai. This involved concrete action. Two. During past struggles, Hsu Hsin-liang, Lin Yi-hsiung, and Shih Ming-teh were expelled from the Democratic Progressive Party or withdrew on their own. This time Tsai Ing-wen will not readily admit defeat or withdraw from the party. Of course, Taiwan independence elements will not withdraw from the Democratic Progressive Party either. Therefore the struggle is real. They have locked themselves behind closed doors. They now sit in the dark, waiting to see who can outlast the other.

Therefore viewed from the outside, the Democratic Progressive Party and mainstream society on Taiwan appear to have created a window of opportunity for communication with Beijing. However viewed from the inside, the DPP appears to have opened up a Pandora's Box behind closed doors.

Following its defeat in 2008, the Democratic Progressive Party realized it must rid itself of Ah-Bian influences and Taiwan independence ideology. This is probably Tsai Ing-wen's hope. It is also the only way out for the DPP. Tsai Ing-wen initially hoped to distance the DPP from Ah-Bian and Taiwan independence. She hoped to purge the party of Ah-Bian influences and Taiwan independence ideology. This would have strengthened the party's political appeal. But in a moment of weakness she chose to lie down in the same bed with Ah-Bian and Taiwan independence elements. In the end she was unable to rid the party of either. Chen Chu has now visited the Mainland. Her visit can be interpreted as a reversal in Tsai Ing-wen's strategy. Instead of first ridding the DPP of Ah-Bian influences, then Taiwan independence ideology, she is attempting to first rid the DPP of Taiwan independence ideology, then Ah-Bian influences.

The DPP leadership appears to have accepted Chen Chu's visit to the Mainland and therefore Tsai Ing-wen's major course change. Tsai Ing-wen has not been ostracized the way Hsu Hsin-liang and Shih Ming-teh were in the past. For Taiwan independence elements and Chen Shui-bian however, this amounts to a political death knell. "China eats s**t!" has now become "Chen Chu Breaks Ice!" From henceforth the "Chen Chu Standard" will replace the "Wang Ting-yu Standard." Ah-Bian can no longer protect Taiwan independence elements. Taiwan independence elements can no longer protect Ah-Bian. Are Taiwan independence elements and Chen Shui-bian going to passively await their fates?

Emotionally and logically it is time for the DPP to distance itself from Taiwan independence elements and Ah-Bian, and to undergo a schism. But Taiwan independence elements cannot expel Tsai Ing-wen, and Tsai Ing-wen cannot expel Taiwan independence elements. On the upside, this means the Democratic Progressive Party remains "unified." This is Chen Shui-bian's hope. On the downside, this means the party will suffer internal injuries from serious infighting. It will remain on the verge of an internal schism.

Actually Taiwan independence elements have played a strategic role in cross-Strait relations. They have efficiently and effectively played the role of "bad cop." This has been fully confirmed in recent years. The question is: does the DPP intend to continue playing the role of a Taiwan independence party? One. The DPP commands 40 percent of the vote, virtually 40 percent of the population. It has played the Taiwan independence "bad cop" that tears society apart and undermines cross-Strait relations. Is such a role becoming and consistent with the larger interests of the public on Taiwan? Two. The DPP is the only effective "native" political party to rule in four hundred years. If it is hijacked by Taiwan independence elements, and ends up on the wrong side of history, won't this be a tragic loss for Taiwan and for democracy?

Tsai Ing-wen is now calling for a showdown with Taiwan independence elements. On May 17 Taiwan independence elements staged their own demonstration in Kaohsiung. This was a warning to Tsai Ing-wen. Tsai Ing-wen ended the protest march peacefully on May 17. She paved the way for Chen Chu's visit to the Mainland. This was a clear message to Taiwan independence elements. Tsai Ing-wen's goal of course was to rid the DPP of Taiwan independence ideology and Ah-Bian influences. The goal of Taiwan independence elements conversely, was to bring down the party leadership and expel Tsai Ing-wen. Pandora's Box has been opened. The doors and windows have been closed. Let us now see who can hold their breath the longest. Let us now see whom Lady Luck favors. The Democratic Progressive Party's debate over its "Party Officials Visit to [Mainland] China" stalled last week. The two sides reached an impasse.

From Taiwan's strategic framework, this remains a dilemma. Some people are unwilling to see Taiwan independence ideology drag the Democratic Progressive Party to its death. But others are unwilling to see Taiwan independence vanish as a strategic factor. Taiwan's problems truly are complex.

民進黨內鬥：打開魔盒，自閉門窗
【聯合報╱社論】
2009.06.09 03:49 am

陳菊登陸，獨派卻是悶不吭聲；原因是獨派本居少數及弱勢，若是撕破臉，只會自暴其弱、自暴其短，因而在這個關鍵時刻，連色厲內荏都做不到，遂是一片噤聲不語。

陳菊登陸，形同民進黨務實改革派已與基本教義派公然攤牌；獨派豈會不知大船正在轉彎，卻佯裝渾然未覺，一語不發。此次務實改革派與基本教義派的鬥爭，不同以往：一、過去許信良及施明德或林義雄與黨的鬥爭，皆尚只是在理念或風格的層次；但蔡英文卻讓陳菊一腳踏進北京、上海，已是具體行動。二、過去幾場鬥爭，皆以許信良、施明德或林義雄被逐出或自動退出民進黨收場，但此次蔡英文不會輕言認輸退場，當然獨派也不會與民進黨切割退出。所以，這才是一場真正的「內鬥」；關起門來無人退場，暗中蓄勢互比氣長。

因而，陳菊登陸，從外觀看，似乎打開了民進黨與台灣主流社會及與對岸的機會之窗；但從民進黨內部來看，卻像是在屋裡打開了潘朵拉魔盒，再將門窗緊閉。

民進黨經二○○八年的慘敗，必須「去扁化獨」；這應是蔡英文的自我期許，也是民進黨的唯一生路。蔡英文原本若能將扁與獨區隔，「先去扁再化獨」，理路自較流利；但她卻因一念之誤而使扁獨合流，終於面對扁不能去、獨亦不能化的困局。如今陳菊登陸，可以解讀為，蔡英文正在嘗試翻轉她的策略軸線，亦即由「先去扁再化獨」，改成「先化獨再去扁」。

從目前的效應來看，民進黨權力核心對陳菊登陸的大船轉彎汽笛聲，似乎相當接受；因此，蔡英文並未如當初許信良、施明德那般陷於孤立之中。但是，對獨派及陳水扁來說，這汽笛聲卻不啻是政治喪鐘；「中國吃屎」變成「陳菊破冰」，今後「王定宇基準」行將逐漸轉移至「陳菊基準」；扁將保不住獨，獨也保不住扁，難道獨派及阿扁會坐以待斃？

衡情論理，這是民進黨切割分裂的時機。但是，獨派驅逐不了蔡英文，蔡英文也趕不走獨派。從正面看，民進黨仍然「團結」（這也是陳水扁的期望）；但從負面看，這卻是必將「內傷」深重的「內鬥」，繼續「分而不裂」。

其實，台獨是台灣在兩岸角力中應有的戰略元素；其所扮演的「黑白臉」機能與效益，近年已充分展現。問題是：民進黨要不要繼續扮演台獨黨的角色？一、以百分之四十的得票實力，形同挾持百分之四十的人口，去扮演撕裂社會，及惡化兩岸關係的台獨「黑臉」，這是否符合比例原則及台灣總體利益？二、民進黨畢竟是台灣四百年來唯一有效能並曾主政的所謂本土政黨，倘若因挾持台獨或被台獨挾持，而就此走入歷史的錯誤面，難道不是一場台灣的民主悲劇？

現在，蔡英文儼然與獨派已經攤牌。五一七遊行，獨派在高雄市另闢南場，就是對蔡英文的警告；而蔡英文以五一七遊行和平收場，為陳菊訪陸送行鋪路，則是對獨派明示已有定見。蔡英文的目標當然是「化獨去扁」，所以獨派的目標也就當然是「拖垮黨中央／驅逐蔡英文」。魔盒打開，門窗緊閉；看誰的氣長，看誰的命大。民進黨「黨公職人員訪中注意事項」上周中常會擱淺，即是雙方相持不下的徵兆。

不過，就台灣的總體戰略架構言，這也是一個兩難的局面。有人不願見民進黨被台獨拖到死，但也有人不願見台獨這個「戰略元素」就此消失。台灣的問題，真是複雜啊！