ECFA: Among the Clouds

ECFA: Among the Clouds
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
February 12, 2010

President Ma Ying-jeou recently took to the battlefield. He spoke directly to the public, explaining the necessity of the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). But yesterday National Security Council Secretary General Su Chi announced his resignation, explaining that "this phase of the mission has been accomplished." Communications between President Ma and the public, and between President Ma and his advisors appear to have broken down yet again.

President Ma is of course not so naive as to imagine that a single speech will allay public doubts. But his recent speech has raised new concerns. It has made the prospect of ECFA even more remote. It highlights the government's confused strategy to promote ECFA. ECFA now resides among the clouds.

President Ma's press conference was entitled "Presidential Report: Cross-Strait Economic Agreement." It used plain language to explain its purpose: "helping people do business, enhancing Taiwan's competitiveness." It stressed ECFA's legitimacy. But in order to benefit from this huge business opportunity, some sectors must pay a price. President Ma did not evade this point. He proposed remedies. He attempted to allay public concerns about diminished sovereignty. He said the administration would pay close attention to concerns about equality, dignity, reciprocity and proportionality. In general, President Ma was sincere in his communications. He displayed confidence in his policy. But in terms of content, he seemed to be spinning his wheels. Things he was afraid to speak remained unspoken. Not only did existing doubts remain, even more doubts were raised.

The first doubt concerns the timetable. President Ma said there is no timetable for signing ECFA. But MAC, the Executive Yuan, and the Presidential Office all made clear that the target date was the Fifth Chiang-Chen Meeting during the first half of this year. Now President Ma says there is no timetable. Is President Ma reverting to "political language?" Or as SEF Chairman Chiang Pin-kung put it, have negotiations over ECFA entered a "more difficult" stage? Current signs suggest it is the latter. President Ma's remark that he has no timetable may also be true. Changes are being made to ECFA's original timetable.

The second doubt relates to the first. If negotiations over ECFA are "more difficult," just how much more difficult are they? Ever since the administration began promoting ECFA, the issues have been over-simplified. To defuse public concerns, this must be addressed. The administration emphasizes only the benefits of signing ECFA. It never talks about where the two sides disagree. Disagreements include terminology, tax relief and tax increase issues, market opening, and the scope and direction of long-term economic cooperation. These disagreements constitute barriers. Problems abound. But so far none of them have been discussed. Perhaps the administration considers it too hard to explain. But to play down the complexity leaves the public with the impression the administration is engaging in "black ops." It raises suspicions about the government's negotiations. CommonWealth Magazine recently released its survey of 1000 Leading CEOs. Ninety percent of them supported ECFA. But nearly half of the CEOs worried that the administration would not be able to protect Taiwan's interests. If even the elites have such misgivings, then misgivings at the grassroots level are probably even deeper.

Can the administration state the issues clearly? That is our third doubt. The administration has sketched out ECFA's broad outlines. But it remains vague about the specifics. The two sides are currently discussing the content of ECFA. Both sides are negotiating over their own interests. Obviously neither side can show its hand prematurely. Obviously the administration cannot say anything for the moment. Therefore the public has been told the same thing about ECFA a thousand times. Hearing the same message a thousand times leads to numbness or even skepticism. Negotiations are ongoing. The details of any imminent market opening have yet to be revealed. Our side has asked for tariff relief. President Ma declared in advance that he would not allow Mainland agricultural products in. This has slowed negotiations to a crawl. How will ECFA look when it finally emerges from the talks? The administration can't be sure. Therefore how can President Ma make it any clearer?

These doubts show that the administration underestimated the ability of the public to rationally debate the issue from day one. It overestimated the power of political ideology. It prettified, simplified, diluted, and blurred the issue. The counterproductive result was public skepticism. After the Spring Festival, the ruling and opposition parties must communicate more closely over ECFA. ECFA must be brought back down to earth, out of the clouds. It must become tangible to the public. The Ma administration must redouble its efforts.

Su Chi may have "accomplished this phase of the mission." But President Ma hasn't.

雲端上的ECFA
【聯合報╱社論】
2010.02.12 03:34 am

馬英九總統最近親上火線，向民眾直接訴求兩岸經濟合作架構協議（ECFA）的必要性及理由；但國安會秘書長蘇起昨日卻以「階段性任務已經完成」，請辭告退。馬總統在社會溝通與內部統御之間，似乎腹背皆出難題。

馬總統當然不會天真地以為，一次的說明就能化解民眾所有的疑問；但是，新的說明卻似乎引出了新的疑慮，將ECFA推向更遠、更高、更不可測的雲端，亦凸顯出政府推動ECFA的策略錯亂。

馬總統在「總統報告：兩岸經濟協議」記者會上，用「幫助人民做生意，提升台灣競爭力」的白話語言，強調ECFA的正當性；但要拿到這個做大生意的機會，當然要付出部分產業會因此受傷的代價。馬總統沒有迴避這一點，也提出了補救作法；更針對民眾疑慮最深的主權矮化問題掛保證，強調政府一定會注意兩岸對等、尊嚴、互惠與比例原則。大體而言，馬總統展現了溝通的誠意，並以充分的準備展現他的政策自信，但總體內容卻似乎仍是原地打轉，說不出口的還是沒說，不只疑慮仍在，還引來更多的問號。

第一個問號是時間表。馬總統說，ECFA簽署沒有時間表，但此前從陸委會、行政院到總統府，都曾明言以今年上半年舉行的第五次江陳會簽署為目標；如今馬總統卻稱沒有時間表，這究竟是馬總統以退為進的政治語言，還是兩岸協商ECFA可能真如海基會董事長江丙坤所言，已進入了「更艱辛」的階段？從目前種種跡象看來，後者成分似乎居多。馬總統的無時間表可能說得實在，卻也讓原本篤定的ECFA簽署時程出現變數。

第二個問號從第一個而來，即ECFA協商的「更艱辛」，到底有多艱辛？自政府推動ECFA迄今，這始終是個被過度簡化的問題，卻是化解民眾疑慮最不可或缺的一項；因為政府僅一味強調ECFA的好處，卻從不解釋兩岸交手的衝突點，包括名稱、相互減免稅項目及幅度、彼此開放市場的進程及範圍，甚至長期經濟合作方向等；這些問題無一不是關卡，甚至處處是難關，卻至今無一談定。這或是政府的難言之隱，但淡化複雜度的結果，反而更予社會「黑箱作業」的印象，對政府的談判更生猜疑。天下雜誌日前公布一千大CEO調查，ECFA雖獲得九成支持率，但有近半數CEO擔心政府沒有能力保護台灣利益；若連社會菁英都有這麼高的疑慮，社會基層的疑懼恐怕更深。

可是，政府現在能講得清楚嗎？這就是第三個問號了。政府對ECFA或能訂下抽象的原則，但對於具體的形貌，卻沒有什麼把握。目前兩岸正在協商ECFA的內容架構，既是雙方利害互有折衝的談判，自不可能先亮底牌，政府現在講不清楚原是理所當然；因而，老百姓聽到的ECFA自然也是千篇一律，因而說一遍跟說一千遍的溝通效應不只鈍化、甚至遞減；另方面，既在談判中，市場開放細節未定，部分我方要求的關稅減免項目，對上彼岸挑戰馬總統設下的不開放農產品原則，也導致協商緩慢。所以，最後談出來的ECFA究竟是個什麼樣貌，政府也沒有把握，馬總統又怎麼可能說得清楚？

種種疑問顯示，ECFA的政策推動，政府一開始即低估了民眾理性討論的能力，卻高估了社會意識形態的驅動力，愈趨美化、簡化、淡化及模糊化的結果，反而更添社會疑慮。春節過後，兩岸ECFA的談判將更趨緊密，台灣內部的朝野溝通亦更形必要。如何將ECFA從雲端霧裡拉回到民間，讓民眾摸得著、感受得到，馬政府確實該再加一把勁了。

不論蘇起是否「完成了階段性的任務」，馬總統還沒有。