Soft Power More Important to Taiwan's Security

Soft Power More Important to Taiwan's Security
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
February 6, 2010

The Obama administration has approved an arms sale to Taipei. Taipei has yet to discuss the sale or respond in any clear manner. Instead, strong protests from Beijing have attracted international attention. In particular, a thesis projecting a naval battle in 2015 has depicted Beijing sinking a U.S. aircraft carrier, and provoked rampant speculation. No matter where Taipei-Washington military procurements might lead, any analysis must consider the triangular relationship between Washington, Beijing, and Taipei.
Washington's arms sales to Taipei have long been viewed as a barometer of Washington's commitment to Taipei. This remains true today. President Obama approved this arms sale to Taipei. Taipei must cough up over 200 billion NTD. Yet the Ma administration felt obligated to "thank" Washington. That is why Washington must face Beijing's wrath.

The Ma administration went through the motions of thanking Washington for the arms sale. But the political atmosphere on Taiwan and on the international stage is undergoing subtle changes. From a government perspective, the sale did not include the submarines and F16C/D fighters Taipei wanted the most. Some say this proves Washington is favoring Beijing and dumping Taiwan. From a public perspective, non-governmental organizations have long opposed arms sales and objected to the government's budget allocations. Also, the price of US arms has skyrocketed. As a result, members of the public may not be falling over themselves with gratitude because "The Americans are willing to sell weapons to us." To some extent this reflects greater public confidence that cross-Strait relations are increasingly stable and peaceful.

More importantly, Mainland China is rising. The international community and the United States have formed G2. The tug of war between the two powers has become the new strategic focal point. Some say the probability of large-scale military conflict breaking out between the superpowers is nearly nil. In the event military confrontation across the Taiwan Strait escalates, some netizens scoff, it will not matter how much "tribute" Taipei gave the United States, or how many weapons it bought. Arms purchases are at best "whistling in the dark." Such remarks may be caustic. But Taipei lacks the ability to "maintain peace through strength." That much is indisputable.

As we can see, arms procurement issues are rife with paradoxes. First, Taipei offers Washington money, not to purchase weapons, but protection. Secondly, Washington is willing to protect Taipei, but only for its own interests. Thirdly, even if Taipei buys these weapons, in the event war actually breaks out, weapons by themselves will not Taipei to protect itself. Washington, Beijing, and Taipei have a triangular relationship. Is Taipei's role in this triangle purely involuntary?

Not necessarily. Taipei lacks the ability to "maintain peace through strength." Therefore we must use other means to avoid war. We must take preventive measures. We have no alternative. Taipei must use "soft power" to defend itself and maintain regional stability.

There are many forms of "soft power." The most important is an advanced form of democracy. Economic strength is of course another. Mainland China is rising. Taiwan's relative economic influence has diminished. But in areas such as the electronics industry, Taiwan remains important. Among these, talent and intellect are an important source of strength. Internationally renowed author Thomas Friedman said that Taiwan's human talent was its most important sustainable asset. Culture is another such force. When President Ma visited Central America, he passed through the United States. His host, the Mayor of Los Angeles, personally asked President Ma to help students in Los Angeles learn Chinese. This is one of Taiwan's many cultural assets.

Taipei must have the wisdom to make use of its "soft power." It can use its leverage to ensure peace between Mainland China and the United States. Taipei has used this leverage in the past. The Lee Teng-hui regime prided itself on "making the situation worse," and for being a "troublemaker." It mistakenly assumed that Taiwan independence forces could help the United States contain Mainland China's rise. But such was not the case. Mainland China's rise is a foregone conclusion. The strategic interests of the United States, Japan and other major powers have long ago changed. Some say that only if Taipei-Washington relations are stable, will cross-Strait relations be stable. In fact all three sides of the triangle formed by Washington, Beijing, and Taipei must be stable before the triangular relationship can be stable. That is why Taipei has a crucial role to play. At least it is no longer making trouble and undermining regional security. It is a small but nimble force poised between two larger forces. If it plays its role well, it will be exercising its soft power and ensuring Taiwan's security.

The arms sales controversy continues to rage. Taipei can apply pressure, not by waging war, but by encouraging Mainland China's peaceful rise. The Republic of China has experience with democracy. It has the ability to show Chinese societies the world over the nature of soft power.

台灣的安全感「軟實力」比較重要
【聯合報╱社論】
2010.02.06 03:31 am

歐巴馬政府通過對台軍售，台灣方面還沒有太大動作的討論和回應，反而因為中共強烈抗議，形成國際注目焦點。尤其美方最新一篇模擬二○一五年海戰的論文，描繪中共擊沉美國航空母艦情景，予人無限想像。台美間的軍購議題不管如何發展，說到底，永遠要放在美中台三邊關係中來解讀。

美國對台軍售，在過去很長一段時間（其實直至目前仍如此），被視為美國對台關係承諾程度的一項指標。所以這次歐巴馬總統同意此筆軍售，台灣若買單要付出超過兩千億台幣，馬政府卻要向美國表示「感謝」；而美國也因此必須面對中共的抗議。

但就算這次馬政府行禮如儀感謝美國的軍售，台灣內部和國際間的氣氛還是經歷了一些微妙的變化。從政府角度而言，由於這批軍售並未包括台灣最想要的潛艦和 F16C／D型戰機，有人反而擔心，這更證明了美國繼續偏向「脫台傾中」的立場。從民間而言，由於多年來各種民間團體持續推動反軍武和關注國家預算分配的議題，且這次美方軍售價錢漲得太兇，所以一般民意未見得對於「美國人肯賣武器給我們」表現歡欣感恩。相當程度上，這也是兩岸關係日趨平穩、國人對和平的信心增強的一種反映。

更重要的是，國際間，由於中國崛起，儼然和美國形成並駕齊驅的Ｇ2，這兩強之間的抗衡，形成一個新的國際戰略焦點。有人說，超級大國之間，爆發大規模戰爭的機率趨近於零。而萬一真的台海軍事對峙情勢升高，網路上有人譏諷，屆時台灣不管向美國「進貢」多少銀子買來多少武器，但真要用以備戰，恐怕只能達到「走夜路吹口哨給自己壯膽」那種程度的功能。此言雖失之刻薄，但台灣並無「以戰止戰」的本錢，恐是不爭的事實。

這樣來看軍購議題，還真是充滿了很多層次的弔詭：第一，台灣捧著銀子，與其說是向美國買武器，不如說是買美國的保護；第二，但美國是否願意保護台灣，還是以美國本身的利益為優先考量；第三，就算買了武器，萬一真有戰事爆發，武備畢竟仍不足以讓台灣自保。這樣說來，美中台三邊架構當中，台灣難道只是「身不由己」的那一方嗎？

卻也未必如此。台灣沒有本錢走向「以戰止戰」的那一步，就必須要用其他方法來避戰，防患於未然。別的沒有，台灣要用「軟實力」來防衛自己，也幫助維護區域穩定。

「軟實力」有很多種。優質的民主當是最重要的軟實力。經貿力量當然亦是其一，雖在中國崛起的對比下，台灣的經貿影響力比重已減弱，但在例如電子產業領域，台灣仍是舉足輕重。這其中，人才和腦力也是台灣重要的實力基礎，甫來訪的國際作家佛里曼就盛讚，人力是台灣最重要的永續資產。再者，文化力量也是其一。馬總統出訪中美洲路過美國時，地主之一的洛杉磯市長就曾面邀馬總統，幫助洛杉磯學生學習中文，這正是台灣文化的利基之一。

但在所有這些條件之上，台灣最必須以高度智慧來運用的一種「軟實力」，就是在中美二強之間作為和平槓桿的功能。台灣過去不是沒有「玩」過這步棋，當年甚至以「鬧得越大越好」的麻煩製造者角色為樂，誤判傾向台獨的立場可以助美遏制中國崛起。但情勢今非昔比。中國的崛起已是定局，美、日等大國的戰略利益考量早在轉變之中。有人說，台美關係穩定，才會兩岸關係穩定。事實上，以美中台三邊關係而言，其中的任二邊關係均屬穩定，這三角關係才會穩定；正因如此，台灣在其中有一個舉重若輕的角色可以扮演。別的不說，至少不再玩以往那種製造麻煩、攪得區域不安的遊戲，兩大之間巧為小，這個角色扮得好，就是一種使台灣安全加分的「軟實力」。

軍售議題沸騰，但台灣可施力處絕不會是戰爭，而是中國和平崛起的大情境。民主經驗領先所有華人社會的台灣，要明白自己的軟實力何在。