The World Has Changed: So Must Cross-Strait Policy

The World Has Changed: So Must Cross-Strait Policy
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
April 13, 2010

The keyword during the Cold War was "disarmament." Now, during the first decade of the twenty-first century, the keywords are "Will the RMB be revalued?" In fact, that is economic and trade equivalent of "disarmament." During the Cold War the keywords invoked by the two sides were "Recover the mainland!" and "Liberate Taiwan!" Now, during the first decade of the twenty-first century, the key word is "ECFA." We have gone from a zero sum game to win-win symbiosis.
The world, to a considerable extent, has put behind it ideological and military confrontation. It now engages primarily in economic "coopetition." During the Cold War the keywords were "arms race", "Iron Curtain", and "containment." Today's keywords are "FTA", "reform and liberalization" and "globalization." The North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Warsaw Pact military alliances have become obsolete. The new organizations are the EU, ASEAN plus N, and the North American Free Trade Area, all of which are economic and trade entities.

The world has changed. Ideological and military confrontation has morphed into economic coopetition. As the world has changed, so have cross-Strait relations. As mentioned before, we have gone from "Recover the mainland!" and "Liberate Taiwan!" to ECFA.

Globalization has led the world away from military and ideological confrontation, and steered it toward economic coopetition. Globalization has had one particularly significant development. It is enabling Mainland China to resolve its internal difficulties by the timely use of economic rather than political means. On the one hand, the Western world, led by United States, has learned to deal with Mainland China through trade coopetition rather than military confrontation. On the other hand, the Western world has lost any justification for the use of military means in their dealings with Mainland China. As the world's factory, Mainland China has already coordinated its interests with the interests of the world's leading manufacturers. As the world's marketplace, Mainland China has become the target of the world's businesses. Ideological and military conflict is no longer the way of the world. It is even less an excuse for the Western world to intervene in Mainland China's affairs. Mainland China is using economic interests to maintain internal harmony and external peace. It is using these means to ensure that foreign powers do not violate the peace and obstruct Mainland China's rise. Instead, foreign powers compete against each other on Mainland China, in the world's factory and the world's marketplace, attempting to offer the best products and services.

Mainland China has changed the way it responds to the world. It now deals with the world by means of trade. The way the world deals with Mainland China has changed too. It too deals with Mainland China by means of trade. Cross-Strait relations are also changing. Taipei and Beijing also deal with each other by means of trade. In recent years rapid fluctuations in cross-Strait relations have not been the result of ideological shifts. They have not been a result of Taiwan's liberal democracy. They have not been the result of differences in military might. If Beijing were to precipitate a military showdown with Taipei, the world would not necessarily watch idly. The reason the cross-Strait situation has changed so radically in recent years, is the result of Mainland China's national strategy. It now deals with the rest of the world using peaceful economic means. Its cross-Strait strategy has changed as well. It also deals with Taiwan using peaceful economic means. On the one hand, this presents Taiwan with a serious crisis. On the other hand, this presents the Mainland with an unprecedented opportunity.

Mainland China is no longer behind an "Iron Curtain." The world is no longer attempting to "contain" China. As a result, Taiwan has lost its role as an outpost in the East Asian anti-communist archipelago. The likelihood that the major powers will become engaged in a military confrontation with Mainland China is now very low. Therefore Taiwan is also obligated to use peaceful means in response to the rise of Mainland China. It must now use only economic and cultural means to deal with cross-Strait coopetition. Mainland China is the world's factory and the world's marketplace. Therefore the two sides of the Strait will inevitably interact with each by means of economic and trade exchanges. Even if Taiwan were to become an independent country, given preexisting geographical and cultural factors, it would still be unable to shun Mainland China and maintain Taiwan's economic viability. This of course, is why Taiwan independence is infeasible. Taiwan independence is unable to a way by which Taiwan's economy can survive. If one cannot survive economically, how can one survive politically? Now that Mainland China has changed its cross-Strait policy to peaceful economic interaction, Taiwan finds itself in crisis. It is now akin to the proverbial frog in a pot, at risk of being gradually boiled to death.

But this crisis is also an opportunity. First, Mainland China has adopted a "peaceful rise" policy towards the world. Therefore it must adopt a a "peaceful development" policy towards Taiwan. The two are related. If peace is the cross-Strait consensus, then all problems may be resolved. Secondly, Mainland China is affirming the legitimacy of its domestic rule internally by means of economic development. It is also maintaining international peace by economic exchanges. This is beneficial to the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations. Intertwined international economic interests make it unlikely Beijing will break the cross-Strait peace. Internally, Beijing must continue to provide its citizens with economic benefits. These benefits encourage increased freedom and democracy in Mainland society. This is also beneficial to the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations. Furthermore, because Beijing has made "peaceful development" and "economic exchanges" the basis of cross-Strait relations, it must respond to public opinion and democracy on Taiwan. If it defies public opinion and democracy on Taiwan, there will no longer be any peace. Mainland China consists of three concentric circles. The innermost circle is a harmonious society. The next circle is peaceful cross-Strait relations. The outermost circle is its peaceful rise on the world stage. If leaders in Taipei possess sufficient wisdom, they can transform cross-Straits relations into win-win symbiosis.

The question "Should the RMB be revalued?" reflects Mainland China's new role on the world stage. The whole world is engaged in coopetition with Mainland China. ECFA meanwhile, reflects the reality of the situation Taiwan faces relative to the Mainland. On the one hand it is an unavoidable crisis. On the other hand, it is an opportunity not to be missed.

世界主題變了 兩岸政策也必須改變
【聯合報╱社論】
2010.04.13 03:00 am

冷戰時代最常見的關鍵字之一是「裁軍」，如今在廿一世紀第一個十年的常見字則是「人民幣匯率是否升值」，其實也就是經貿層面的「裁軍」；相對而言，冷戰時代兩岸最常見的關鍵字是「反攻大陸」或「解放台灣」，如今在廿一世紀第一個十年的常見字則是「ＥＣＦＡ」，從零和轉向尋求雙贏共生。

這個世界已經在極大程度上走出了意識形態及軍事衝突，轉而以經濟競合為主調。冷戰時代的關鍵字是「軍備競賽」、「鐵幕」、「圍堵」，如今的關鍵字則是「ＦＴＡ」、「改革開放」、「全球化」。北大西洋公約組織、華沙公約等軍事聯盟已成明日黃花，新的組合則是歐盟、東協加Ｎ、北美自由貿易區等，皆是經貿組織。

世界的主題變了。由意識形態及軍事的對立，變成經濟競合。由於世界的主題變了，兩岸關係的基調也隨之改變。如前所述，從反攻大陸、解放台灣，變成了ＥＣＦＡ。

「全球化」促使世界的主題從軍事及意識形態的對立，轉向經濟競合。其中發生的最重大事件是：中國因全球化而適時把握了以經濟手段（相對於政治手段）解決內政困境的機遇；而西方世界（以美國為主）一方面找到了以經貿競合（相對於軍事手段）為處理中國問題的方法，另一方面其實也失去了以軍事手段處理中國問題的合理性。作為世界工廠，中國已與世界頂尖廠家的利益結合；作為世界市場，中國也已成為全世界商家競逐的目標。意識形態與軍事的衝突不再是世界的主題，更已不再是西方世界藉以處理中國問題的憑藉。中國藉由經貿利益來維持內部和諧與外部和平，因而使列強亦不可能以違反「和平」的手段，來阻擋中國「崛起」，反而爭相搶食中國在世界工廠及世界市場所提供的誘人利益。

中國應對世界的方法改變了，以經貿為主題；世界應對中國的方法也改變了，亦以經貿為主題。因此，兩岸關係也隨之改變，也改以經貿為主題。兩岸情勢近年來的急遽消長，並非源自意識形態的變化，因為台灣的自由民主制度仍占有高度；亦非出自軍力懸殊，因為那對台灣頂多拚死一戰，對世界則未必能完全坐視無睹。近年兩岸情勢的丕變，是因中國改以「經濟」與「和平」為面對世界的立國戰略，亦改以「經濟」與「和平」為兩岸戰略；這使台灣一方面陷入更大的危機，但另一方面也出現了前所未見的轉機。

中國不再是「鐵幕」，世界亦不再「圍堵」中國。因此台灣也失去了東亞花采列島反共前哨的角色。列強與中國軍事對抗的可能性變得極低，因而台灣亦必須以「和平」的方法來面對「崛起」的中國，也就是改以經貿及文化交流的策略來處理兩岸競合。在此種情勢下，由於中國已是世界工廠、世界市場，所以經貿交流遂成為兩岸互動的必然主題。即使台灣獨立建國，在兩岸先天的地緣及人文關係下，也絕無可能排除中國而維持台灣的經濟命脈；其實，這也正是台獨不可行的主要原因，因為台獨找不到台灣的經濟活路。在經濟上活不下去，在政治上如何活得下去？唯無論如何，由於中國改以「經濟」及「和平」為兩岸政策的主軸，使台灣確實陷於冷水煮青蛙的危機之中。

然而，台灣的轉機亦在其中。首先，中國對世界採取「和平崛起」的政策，因而必須對台灣採取「和平發展」的政策，兩者是互為因果的。如果「和平」成了兩岸的共識與主題，則所有的問題皆可能會出現解決的空間。其次，中國對內以經濟發展建立統治正當性，對外以經濟手段維持和平，皆有益於兩岸的「和平發展」。對外，由於國際經濟利益的交纏，使中國不至於輕易破壞兩岸和平；對內，經濟發展促使北京政權必須不斷向其公民「放權讓利」，亦即增加了中國社會的自由度及民主性，這樣的發展亦當有利於兩岸和平發展。再者，北京將「和平發展」與「經濟交流」懸為兩岸關係的主軸，即必須回應台灣的民意與民主，因為，違背台灣的民意與民主，即可能失去和平。故而，在中國「內部和諧社會／兩岸和平發展／對世界和平崛起」的三層同心圓中，台灣若操持得宜，應能創造兩岸雙贏共生的轉機。

「人民幣應否升值」，反映了中國的世界新角色，及世界與中國的競合關係；ＥＣＦＡ則反映了在中國的世界新角色中，台灣所面臨的現實情勢：一方面是無可迴避的危機，另一方面又是不能錯失的轉機。