The Government and the Opposition Should Not Squabble Over the 6:3:3 Issue

The Government and the Opposition Should Not Squabble Over the 6:3:3 Issue
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
October 4, 2011

Summary: During the 2008 election, KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou promised "6:3:3." What he meant was that if elected, he would increase the economic growth rate to 6%, decrease the unemployment rate to 3%, and raise per capita income to US$30,000 a year. This outdated campaign promise has recently become a target for opposition DPP attacks against the ruling KMT. Both sides have already defaulted on 6:3:3. A war of words is premature. Frankly, both maior parties have shown no improvement. Both are living in the past.

Full Text Below:

During the 2008 election, KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou promised "6:3:3." What he meant was that if elected, he would increase the economic growth rate to 6%, decrease the unemployment rate to 3%, and raise per capita income to US$30,000 a year. This outdated campaign promise has recently become a target for opposition DPP attacks against the ruling KMT. Both sides have already defaulted on 6:3:3. A war of words is premature. Frankly, both major parties have shown no improvement. Both are living in the past.

DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen says that Ma and his staffers promised that 6:3:3 would be achieved in only four years. She says they are now claiming their promise was for eight years, not four. The DPP accuses the KMT of changing its story on the campaign promise it made four years ago.

Frankly, such accusations mean very little. As we all know, soon after the KMT regained power in 2008, the global financial crisis struck. Every nation on earth was affected. Not a single world leader who took office in 2008 was able to fulfill his campaign promises regarding economic growth. Not Barak Obama in the United States. Not Lee Myung-bak in South Korea. Attacking the ruling administration on this issue is unlikely to win public sympathy.

Would such a goal take four years to achieve, or eight years? Common sense tells us it cannot be reached in four years. Consider the US$30,000 per capita income goal. The per capita income on Taiwan in 2007 was only US$17,592. To reach the $US$30,000 goal in four years without a change in the exchange rate, one would have to achieve a 15% annual economic growth rate. Is the KMT foolish enough to make such an impossible campaign promise?

The KMT has dug in its heels and denied reneging on its 6:3:3 promise. It insists that its 6:3:3 promise was an eight year target. Like an ostrich with its head in the sand, it is afraid to face facts. A US$30,000 national income in four years is as unlikely as the sun rising in the west. This year per capita income on Taiwan may exceed US$20,000. In order to reach US$30,000 by 2015, the annual economic growth rate would have to be nearly 10%. Is that possible? Of course not.

A reasonable estimate would put annual average income growth at 5% per year. In which case per capita income by 2015 would be US$25,000 or so. To increase the national income to US$30,000 would be possible only with a sudden increase in the value of the NT dollar. Per capita income is figured in U.S. dollars. Even then, the NT dollar would have to increase 20% in value. In other words, the exchange rate would have to increase to NT$26 to US$1. Although not impossible, it is highly unlikely.

Is an average annual economic growth of 6% over two four year terms possible? Let's look at the numbers. That should enable us to evaluate the likelihood. Between 2008 and 2010, the annual average growth rate was less than 4%. The DGBAS's economic growth forecast for this year is only 4.81%. Given the global economic situation, that number will probably have to be lowered. The estimated growth rate for 2012 is 4.58%. According to these figures, if one wants to achieve an average annual growth rate of 6% over eight years, then the growth rate between 2013 and 2015 must be 8 to 9% to make up for the 6% growth rate over the past five years. That is not merely difficult. It is impossible.

The DPP is relentlessly attacking the KMT for reneging on 6:3:3. It believes it is hitting the KMT where it hurts. Therefore it refuses to let up. It persists in demagoguing the issue. But soon after Ma took office, the global financial tsunami struck. Economic growth in every nation was affected. The DPP persists in attacking the KMT on this point. The public however, is not impressed. These DPP tactics amount to living in the past. After all, if the DPP really believes 6:3:3 is feasible, why is it presenting voters with a ten year plan?

Based on the above data, four years or eight years makes no difference. The bottom line is, the 6:3:3 promise cannot be fulfilled. The KMT however, refuses to admit that its 6:3:3 promise cannot be fulfilled. Its officials insist "It is not impossible in the future." They are living in a dream world.

Consider the current global economic situation. Examine the world's major economies. Japan is sinking into recession. The United States and Europe each have their own intractable problems with economic fundamentals and debt. Even without a recession, a slowdown in Europe and America is certain. The Chinese mainland and other emerging economies must cope with inflation, bad debt, and domestic problems. They have troubles of their own. Therefore no matter which party wins the election next year, it will face severe economic challenges. Instead of meaningless squabbling over 6:3:3, they should offer better economic proposals for the future of the nation, and better strategies in response to the economic downturn.

中時電子報 新聞
中國時報 　2011.10.04
朝野不應在「六三三」上糾纏
本報訊

二○○八年大選時，國民黨馬英九提出「六三三」的政見承諾─即經濟成長率達六％、失業率降到三％，還有平均國民所得達到三萬美元。這個過時的政見與競選承諾，最近一再成為朝野兩黨攻防重點，雙方猛在「六三三」是已經跳票、還是時候未到上噴口水。坦白說，兩黨都不長進，讓自己活在過去與夢幻中。

民進黨總統候選人蔡英文說，過去不論是馬本人或其幕僚，都宣稱「六三三」只需要四年即可達到，現在才說要八年才能完成。民進黨批評國民黨是把四年前跳票的舊政見再拿來騙。

坦白說，這種指責與口水戰意義並不大，因為大家都知道，國民黨二○○八年執政後，當年即碰上全球百年僅見的金融海嘯，所有國家的經濟運行軌道都被打亂。世界各國在二○○八年開始執政的團隊─從美國的歐巴馬到南韓的李明博，沒有一個能達到競選時對經濟成長、國家發展的承諾。以此當話題批判執政者，能得到的共鳴恐怕相當有限。

更何況，到底是四年還是八年要達成，用常識想也知道不會是四年達成的承諾。以平均國民所得三萬美元為例，二○○七年台灣平均國民所得（以平均每人ＧＮＰ算）只有一萬七五九二美元，要在四年達成三萬美元的目標，在匯率不升值的情況下，每年經濟要成長十五％才能達成。國民黨有笨到這種程度、提出這種天方夜譚式的政見承諾嗎？

至於國民黨咬緊牙根不承認「六三三」跳票，硬是強調「六三三」是八年達成的政見，更是不敢正視現實的駝鳥作法，因為，單是一個國民所得三萬美元的承諾，就是「太陽由西邊升起」都不可能做到的目標了。因為今年台灣的平均國民所得預估可破二萬美元，要在二○一五年達到三萬美元，代表未來每年經濟成長率要接近十％，可能嗎？膝蓋想都知道不可能。

合理的推估是假設未來每年經濟成長率為五％，那麼二○一五年的平均國民所得大概能到二萬五千美元左右的水準。如果要讓國民所得拚到三萬美元，只有台幣大幅升值一途，因為平均國民所得是用美元計算。即使如此，台幣也要升個近二成才能達成─也就是說台幣匯率要升值到廿六元左右。雖然不是完全不可能，但顯然難度也是極高。

至於要達到任期八年平均每年經濟成長達六％，我們看看這幾年的數字，大概就能評估出其可能性。從二○○八到二○一○這三年平均成長率不到四％，行政院主計處對今年經濟成長率的預測值只有四．八一％，且以全球經濟情勢趨勢看，再向下修正的機率非常高；二○一二年預估成長率為四．五八％。根據這些數字，如果要達到八年平均每年經濟成長率為六％的目標，代表二○一三到二○一五這三年的成長率，要能補足過去五年不到六％的「缺口」，所以這三年每年至少要有八到九％以上的高成長，這不是「阿婆生子─很拚」，而是完全不可能達到。

民進黨猛攻「六三三」跳票，應該是認為抓住國民黨的痛處，因此不斷猛攻、持續在此議題上打轉。不過，既然在馬執政後，全球發生過金融海嘯，干擾也打擊了全球所有國家的經濟成長軌道，民進黨猛打這點，民眾的共鳴實在有限。民進黨這種戰法，等於是「活在過去」。畢竟如果民進黨認為它做得到，為什麼政見支票都要開長遠的十年呢？

而由以上數據分析可知，不論說是四年或八年達成，反正「六三三」就是不可能全部達成了。但國民黨至今仍不願、亦不敢承認「六三三」難以兌現，官員甚至還在說「未來不是沒有可能達成」之類的話。這其實也猶如活在夢幻中。

以目前全球的經濟情勢來看，全球各大經濟體中，日本已沉淪步入衰退，美、歐各自有難解的經濟基本面與債務問題，即使不步入衰退，歐美成長趨緩已成事實。大陸與其它新興經濟體亦有通膨、爛帳延燒等內部問題，自顧不暇。因此，明年不論那一黨勝選執政，都可能要面臨相當嚴苛的經濟挑戰。兩黨與其在無聊的「六三三」上「勾勾纏」，不如好好提出對未來台灣總體經濟的擘畫，及未來因應經濟變局的策略。