Shifting Political Winds in Seoul: The Third Force

Shifting Political Winds in Seoul: The Third Force
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
October 28, 2011

Summary: In the Seoul, South Korea mayoral by-election, Park Won-soon, a political novice with no party affiliation and no political experience, defeated the ruling party candidate and scored a stunning victory. His campaign paved the way for a joint opposition party challenge in the presidential election. It also proved that Ahn Cheol Soo is a credible challenger to the ruling party in the presidential race. Is there room for a "third force" on Taiwan? The shifting political winds in South Korea provide an interesting basis for comparison and contrast.

Full Text Below:

In the Seoul, South Korea mayoral by-election, Pu Yuanchun, a political novice with no party affiliation and no political experience, defeated the ruling party candidate and scored a stunning victory. His campaign paved the way for a joint opposition party challenge in the presidential election. It also proved that Ahn Cheol Soo is a credible challenger to the ruling party in the presidential race. Is there room for a "third force" on Taiwan? The shifting political winds in South Korea provide an interesting basis for comparison and contrast.

Park Won-soon is a lawyer. He has been involved in popular protests for years, He has the same experience as former President Roh Moo-hyun, who committed suicide. He is electable. He successfully united the opposition parties. He persuaded them to nominate a single candidate, He united a number of smaller forces to strike at a single larger force. He reflects the public's aversion to the political establishment, He is the embodiment of new hope. The public expects him to be a herald for reform.

An even more important trend is apparent in next year's South Korean presidential election, one that parallels Park Won-soon's upset victory in Seoul. One of the highest profile candidates is Ahn Cheol Soo, Dean of Seoul National University's School of Integrated Technology. Ahn Cheol Soo also planned to run for Seoul mayor. As soon as he declared his candidacy, his political momentum built rapidly. Voter support made him a shoo-in. But he suddenly announced his withdrawal from the mayoral race and threw his support behind Park Won-soon. Park Won-soon originally ranked fifth among the candidates, with only 3% of the vote. But once Ahn Cheol Soo gave him his blessing, Park Won-soon's momentum built. Other opposition parties were willing to make concessions. The Ahn Cheol Soo whirlwind was the reason for the changing political winds in Seoul.

According to South Korean media analysts, Ahn Cheol Soo's momentum poses a serious threat to the Grand National Party. He abandoned the campaign in Seoul. He did so in order to enter the presidential race. The Seoul mayoral by-election represents Ahn Cheol Soo's masterful restructuring, transformation, and training of South Korea's "third force." Some think that after the Battle of Seoul, an "Ahn Cheol Soo New Party" is in the offing.

Park Won-soon had no political experience. Yet he defeated the ruling party and other opposition parties. He seized the mayorship of the nation's capital. Ahn Cheol Soo is merely a management and research scholar. Yet he instantly amassed enormous political momentum. This reveals the extent of the South Korean peoples' political discontent. South Korea's economic performance in recent years has been impressive. But the wealth found its way into the hands of huge conglomerates. The public is critical of these conglomerates. The lack of opposition parties enabled the ruling party to engage in incessant corruption. This provoked public outrage, That is why the public has powerful expectations about a third force outside the traditional political establishment.

James Soong bills himself as Taiwan's "third force." But any comparison of Soong with Pu Yuanchun and Ahn Cheol Soo is unlikely to be flattering to Soong. Puyuan Chun and Ahn Cheol Soo exploded on the scene. Their faces were fresh. Their images were clean. Their professional reputations were the product of long years of hard work. James Soong has been in politics his entire life. His political record and public image are already fixed. He is a horse of a different color. When a political novice assumes office, he is "tabula rasa." He leaves much to the voters' imagination. This of course includes the possibility of failed expectations. That said, Ahn Cheol Soo has made his debut. He has stunned the nation by taking a wide lead. By contrast, James Soong continues bringing up the rear. This shows that he is not the public's idea of a "third force."

Voters on Taiwan expect little from James Soong. That does not mean Taiwan has no third force. Blue vs. Green confrontation persists. If a third force were to break the deadlock, if Taiwan was no longer caught in this vicious internal power struggle, the public would welcome it with open arms. The problem is that James Soong had a key role in the Blue Camp. He forfeited the opportunity of transcending Blue and Green. On the one hand James Soong offers Deep Blue pro reunification rhetoric. On the other hand he relied on the Green Camp for his petition drive. This was not transcending Blue and Green. This was playing both sides against the middle. As a result, the only role he could play was a destructive one.

The turnout in Seoul was less than 50%. Just how much charisma does Park Won-soon actually command? It must not be over-estimated. Just how long will the Ahn Cheol Soo cyclone last? That must be subjected to the test of time. The public expects much from these political novices, who know how to win people's hearts. They have united the opposition parties, and increased their collective impact. Contrast this with James Soong, who blindly played up his person charisma, The results were just as different. The Democratic Party is the largest opposition party in South Korea. Yet it forfeited the opportunity to nominate its own candidate, and instead supported political novices without any party affiliation. Some ridiculed it for doing so. But when the election results were announced, the excitement within the Democratic Party was palpable, This model for cooperation can now be applied to the presidential election.

The Seoul mayoral by-election was precipitated by Mayor Oh Se-hoon's rash promise to step down over the issue of free school lunches. One person's miscalculation cleared away a thousand layers of political dust. The result was something the ruling party could never have imagined.

從首爾變天看第三勢力的想像
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.10.28

南韓首爾市長補選，無黨籍且毫無從政經歷的朴元淳一戰功成，擊敗執政黨對手。此役，不僅開啟了在野勢力聯手進軍總統大選之門，也證明「安哲秀旋風」挑戰總統大位的威脅強勁。對於正在探討「第三勢力」空間的台灣，南韓的變化提供了殊堪玩味的對照。

朴元淳是律師出身，長年從事公民運動，經歷和自殺身亡的前總統盧武鉉類似。他能當選，一方面是在野陣營整合成功，集中力量共推一人出征，發揮了「集小擊大」之功。另一方面，也反映了首爾市民對現有政治架構的厭惡，因而寄希望於背景清新的新人，期望帶來改革契機。

與朴元淳在首爾出線平行發展的，還有一條更重要的軸線在推進，那就是明年的南韓總統大選布局；其中最受注目的人選，就是首爾大學融合科技院長安哲秀。安哲秀原先也宣布角逐首爾市長，他一現身即飆出超高人氣，支持度遙遙領先；但他卻隨即戲劇性地宣布退出戰局，改為支持朴元淳主戰。在他加持下，原本排名第五、僅百分之三支持度的朴元淳聲勢大漲，讓其他在野政黨自甘退讓。這股「安哲秀旋風」，才是首爾變天的觀盤重點。

根據南韓媒體的分析，安哲秀目前的聲勢，對大國家黨已構成嚴重威脅；他捨棄首爾之戰，目的即是放眼總統大選，首爾補選堪稱是以安哲秀為核心的「第三勢力」重組、改造、練兵之巨作。甚至有人研判，首爾之戰揭曉後，可能就是「安哲秀新黨」登場的時刻。

朴元淳從無從政經歷，卻一舉擊敗朝野政黨，奪下首都市長寶座；安哲秀不過是一名有經營及研究聲譽的學者，卻瞬間凝聚了龐大的人氣。這些，都反映南韓人民對政治的不滿。近年南韓經濟表現不俗，但財富流向大財團、大企業的現象讓人詬病；政治上，在野黨缺乏作為和執政黨屢斬不絕的腐敗現象，也讓人民痛恨，也因此對來自傳統政治領域以外的第三勢力懷有強烈期待。

然而，朴元淳和安哲秀現象，對於宣稱要成為台灣「第三勢力」的宋楚瑜而言，卻恐怕不是一個正面的比照。朴元淳和安哲秀的爆發力，來自其清新形象，包括長年專業耕耘累積的聲譽；而宋楚瑜一生從政，政績和形象在社會上已有固定評價，兩者截然不同。新人從政，因為白紙一片，提供了選民更多的想像空間，其中當然也包括了可能「失察」的莫大風險。但無論如何，安哲秀一出現，即以舉國驚艷之姿遙遙領先；相形之下，宋楚瑜始終無法擺脫民調殿後的困境，說明他並非民間渴盼的「第三勢力」。

台灣選民對宋楚瑜缺乏期待，並不表示台灣不需要第三勢力。相反的，以台灣的藍綠對峙，若能有第三勢力打破這個僵局，使台灣不再陷於惡鬥內耗，應該很受民眾歡迎。問題是，宋楚瑜在泛藍陣營有過的關鍵角色，使他失去「超越藍綠」的客觀地位；且如今宋的操作，一方面舉深藍的統派論述，另一方面卻拉綠營連署，這已絕非「超越藍綠」，而只是想要一手玩弄藍綠雙方，因此使他最多只能扮演「成事不足，敗事有餘」的角色。

不過，這次首爾投票率不到五成，朴元淳真否有那麼大的魅力，其實不必高估；而安哲秀旋風的威力能維持多久，也有待時日考驗。但關鍵在，民間對新人有殷切期待，他們也懂得捕捉民氣，並極力和在野黨合縱連橫，擴大了集體效應；這和宋楚瑜還一味打「個人牌」的作法大異其趣，效果也明顯不同。最特別的是，民主黨作為主要在野黨，竟放棄提名本黨候選人而去支持無黨籍新人，甚至遭到「失格」之譏；但選舉結果揭曉後，民主黨興奮之情溢於言表，即可知此一合作模式將沿用至總統大選。

話說回來，這次首爾市長補選，是因為市長吳世勳為了學童免費午餐問題草率承諾而下台所引發。一個人的一時失算，竟然捲起了政治的千堆雪，這又豈是執政黨所能預料得到的事？