Will the DPP Win at Least 42% of the Vote?

Will the DPP Win at Least 42% of the Vote?
United Daily News editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
October 19, 2011

Summary: Tsai Ing-wen's rhetoric regarding national identity and cross-Strait policies is duplicitous and dangerous. News reports about Su Jia-chyuan and Hung Heng-chu reek of corruption and scandal. But support for the Tsai/Su ticket remains solid. The Conventional Wisdom is that support will not fall below 42%. They may even be elected. Eighty days from now, on January 14 of next year, 23 million people on Taiwan may watch as Tsai Ing-wen and Su Jia-chyuan win "a victory with an even bigger question mark."

Full Text Below:

If Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP win the upcoming presidential election, it will constitute a national catastrophe. But even if Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP lose the presidential election, Taiwan's political and economic problems will remain insoluble.

Three years ago, Tsai Ing-wen became DPP Chairman, People assumed she would transform the DPP. That did not happen. On national identity, Tsai remains trapped within the framework of Taiwan independence. She is still taking the "backdoor listing" approach toward Taiwan independence. If she is elected president, her victory will be considered a defeat for the 1992 consensus and one China, different interpretations. It will result in an immediate showdown with Beijing, The two sides will collide, head on. Su Jia-chyuan and Hong Heng-chu are already the symbol for corruption in the new DPP. Suppose a DPP victory whitewashes Su Jia-chyuan and his wife. Suppose they are allowed to squeak by merely because they were elected to office? The Tsai/Su regime will assume power with this symbol of corruption stamped on its forehead. How can it establish any political legitimacy? The global economy is in dire straits. The US-ROK FTA threatens. If Tsai Ing-wen is elected, Taiwan will be uable to hold its head up on either side of the Strait. The result will be a national disaster.

Even if the DPP is defeated in the presidential election, Taiwan's political and economic problems will remain insoluble. The DPP Tsai Ing-wen leaves behind at the end of the election will be a DPP that recognizes only "18% of the ROC." It will be a DPP that wants only to seize the presidency. It will be a DPP that refuses to recognize one China, different interpretations. It will be a DPP that refuses to recognize the Constitution of the Republic of China. It will be a DPP that whitewashes the corrupt practices of Chen Shui-bian, Wu Shu-cheng, Su Jia-chyuan, and Hong Heng-chu. The DPP can engage in brazen corruption, yet still be assured of receiving 42% of the vote. Even if it is defeated in the coming election, Taiwan's political and economic problems will remain insoluble.

The DPP may win or lose. Either way it will divide society over national identity, It will undermine cross-Strait harmony. It will abet political corruption. None of this will change. Tsai Ing-wen may win due to the James Soong Factor. But even if she loses, she will probably still receive 42% of the vote. The DPP she leaves behind will still be a pro Taiwan independence party. It will still be a corrupt political party that inverts right and wrong. It will still be a political party that commands die-hard support from 42% of the electorate. Unless the DPP can be reborn, Taiwan's political and economic problems will remain insoluble.

This newspaper pointed this out in 2008, when Ma Ying-jeou won a landslide victory. We said Ma Ying-jeou's victory in the presidential election was "a victory with a giant question mark."

We pointed out. even as the votes were being counted, that Taiwan's rise or fall would depend upon Ma's ability to govern. It would depend on the 42% of the electorate that supported Frank Hsieh and the DPP. If that 42% of the electorate allows itself to be held hostage by the DPP, if it fails to extricate itself from the trap of Taiwan independence, if it supports the DPP blindly, and remains indifferent to right and wrong, then Taiwan's fate will be in its hands. If the DPP continues promoting its current values, whether it is the ruling party or the opposition party will make no difference. It will remain a force for destruction instead of construction.

Recent developments confirm that the victory Ma Ying-jeou won three years ago was indeed "a victory with a giant question mark." Ma Ying-jeou's governance has been less than completely satisfactory, The Ma administration can be criticized on many issues. But on two issues, promoting peaceful development and fighting political corruption, Ma's achievements have been considerable. Tsai Ing-wen is in an attempting to undermine the Ma administration's cross-Strait policy by repudiating the 1992 consensus and one China, different interpretations. She has thrown her full support behind Su Jia-chyuan and Hong Heng Chu. This election will test the electorate's political conscience, and its tolerance for political corruption. This election paints a giant question mark besides the Ma administration's four years in office. It paints a giant question mark besides Tsai Ing-wen and Su Jia-chyuan, in the event they win the election.

History is full of paradoxes. In 2008, Ma Ying-jeou and Vincent Siew won "a victory with a giant question mark." Will Tsai Ing-wen and Su Jia-chyuan win "a victory with an even bigger question mark?" The question we must ask Tsai Ing-wen is not "Are you ready?" but "Are you ready for a major disaster?"

The current posture of Tsai Ing-wen, Su Jia-chyuan, and the DPP is twofold. One. Repudiate the 1992 consensus and one China, different interpretations, even if it means colliding head on with Beijing. Two. Excuse Su Jia-chyuan and Hong Heng-chu's brazen corruption. Refuse to admit wrongdoing or express repentance. In the event Su and Hong are forced to relinquish their luxury farmhouse, insist that everything was "legal." Their attitude borders on brutish. If they win the general election, will disaster ensue? If they lose, can the ruling administration overcome the obstacles erected by the DPP, and solve Taiwan's political and economic problems?

Tsai Ing-wen's rhetoric regarding national identity and cross-Strait policies is duplicitous and dangerous. News reports about Su Jia-chyuan and Hung Heng-chu reek of corruption and scandal. But support for the Tsai/Su ticket remains solid. The Conventional Wisdom is that support will not fall below 42%. They may even be elected. Eighty days from now, on January 14 of next year, 23 million people on Taiwan may watch as Tsai Ing-wen and Su Jia-chyuan win "a victory with an even bigger question mark."

四十二%起跳 台灣的大問號！
【聯合報╱社論】 2011.10.19

可以斷言，蔡英文與民進黨若贏得這次總統大選，將是國家大災難的開始；然而，即使蔡英文與民進黨若輸掉這次總統大選，台灣的政經難題也恐怕仍難解決。

因為，蔡英文並未如國人在她三年前就任黨主席時所期待的帶領民進黨轉型。在國家認同上，她依舊未走出台獨的框架，所採仍是「借殼上市」的路線；她若當選總統，將被視為「否認九二共識／一中各表」的政策獲勝，而立即與北京攤牌，直接對撞。再者，蘇嘉全、洪恆珠夫婦已成為民進黨新的貪腐象徵；民進黨若勝選，蘇嘉全夫婦經選票漂白，「當選過關」，則帶著這一大塊貪腐胎記上台的「蔡蘇政府」，如何建立統治的正當性？如今，眼看著世界經濟局勢凶險萬狀，台灣在美韓ＦＴＡ威脅下更是前景堪憂；蔡英文若當選，而竟在兩岸關係及清廉形象上皆不能立足，豈不是宣告一場國家大災難必將爆發？

然而，即使民進黨在這次總統大選再度落敗，卻也未必能解決台灣的政經難題。因為，蔡英文經此次大選留下的民進黨，將仍是一個只承認「十八％中華民國」的民進黨（只是搶當總統，但不承認「一中各表」的中華民國憲法），也仍將是一個像當年力挺陳水扁、吳淑珍貪腐一般地力挺蘇嘉全、洪恆珠貪腐的民進黨。因而，民進黨倘能再獲四十二％以上選票的穩定支持，即使在此次大選敗北落選，台灣的政經難題必是仍難化解。

因為，不論民進黨勝選或敗選，它在撕裂國家認同、惡化兩岸關係，及包庇貪腐三大問題上，皆是依然故我；且蔡英文若因宋楚瑜等因素而當選固無論矣，即使敗選而若仍能獲四十二％起跳的選票支持，則她留下的民進黨仍是一個台獨黨，也仍是一個顛倒是非的貪腐黨，又是一個無論如何皆有四成二以上選票死忠支持的鐵桿黨；則民進黨即無可能脫胎換骨，台灣的政經難題亦必是仍難解決。

其實，本報社論在二○○八年馬英九以壓倒性優勢贏得總統大選時即曾指出：馬英九的勝利是「一個帶著問號的勝利」。

當年，我們在開票首日及次日的社論指出：台灣的興衰存亡，固然將決定於馬英九的執政能力，也更將決定於那四十二％支持謝長廷及民進黨的選民之手。如果那四十二％起跳的選民，仍然挾持民進黨（或被民進黨挾持）而走不出台獨的框架，或力挺民進黨到了完全不問是非黑白的地步，台灣的命運將決定於這四十二％起跳的選民手中。而民進黨若繼續維持這樣的內涵，則不論是執政或在野，對台灣而言，皆可謂是「成事不足，敗事有餘」。

如今已可證實馬英九在三年前所獲確實是一個「帶著問號的勝利」。不過，馬英九的執政績效雖未能盡如人意，有甚多可以批評之處；但他在重建兩岸「和平發展」關係，及洗刷貪腐兩大議題上，皆有可觀的成就。現在，蔡英文欲以否定「九二共識／一中各表」，來推翻馬政府的兩岸政策，又以力挺蘇嘉全、洪恆珠夫婦來測驗國人良知對政治貪腐的忍耐度；這非但使馬政府四年的努力掛上了一個問號，也更為蔡英文、蘇嘉全如果當選勝出，畫下了一個天大的問號。

歷史充滿弔詭。馬英九、蕭萬長在二○○八年的「帶著問號的勝利」，會不會在二○一二年變成蔡英文、蘇嘉全的「帶著更大問號的勝利」？現在要問蔡英文的，不是：「妳準備好了嗎？」而應當是：「妳準備好若當選要面對的大災難了嗎？」

蔡英文、蘇嘉全及民進黨目前的姿態顯然是：一、否定「九二共識／一中各表」，不惜與北京撕裂對撞；二、對蘇嘉全、洪恆珠夫婦如此不忍卒睹的貪腐形象，迄仍拒絕認錯悔過，縱使捐出豪華農舍，仍堅稱原本一切「合法」。這種跡近強橫野蠻的姿態，若贏了大選豈非大災難？若輸，又豈能解決民進黨及台灣的政經難題？

眼前的事實是，無論蔡英文的國家認同與兩岸政策如何詭詐虛無及危險，亦無論蘇嘉全夫婦的貪腐醜聞如何不堪聞問，蔡蘇配的支持度皆十分穩固，一直被認為至少可從四十二％起跳，且頗有當選的可能。那麼，且讓台灣兩千三百萬人，在八十幾天後的明年一月十四日，看著蔡英文與蘇嘉全攜手贏得「帶著更大問號的勝利」吧！