Preconditions for a Cross-Strait Peace Agreement

Preconditions for a Cross-Strait Peace Agreement
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
October 30, 2011

Summary: President Ma Ying-jeou has proposed a cross-Strait peace agreement. His proposal spread shockwaves, at home and abroad. It has become a political football. Is his proposal feasible? It depends on whether the conditions, objective and subjective, are ripe. It is not something that can be achieved unilaterally, through wishful thinking. The time must be ripe. Only then can the two sides successfully sign a peace agreement.

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President Ma Ying-jeou has proposed a cross-Strait peace agreement. His proposal spread shockwaves, at home and abroad. It has become a political football. Is his proposal feasible? It depends on whether the conditions, objective and subjective, are ripe. It is not something that can be achieved unilaterally, through wishful thinking. The time must be ripe. Only then can the two sides successfully sign a peace agreement.

From this perspective, President Ma's proposal appears too rooted in subjective wishes, and not enough in objective facts. Ma mentioned three preconditions for a peace agreement: public support, a national need, and legislative oversight. But all three were internal matters on the Taiwan side. They ignored external factors on the Mainland side. President Ma later added another precondition. He said any peace agreement would require a public referendum. This triggered a fierce debate between the Blue camp and the Green camp, But debate over the cross-Strait peace agreement was confined to its impact on the Taiwan side. For Taiwan, it was a tempest in a teapot. No wonder more and more people saw this as the main theme of the 2012 presidential election campaign. They concluded that the truth would be revealed only after the election. Amidst the uproar, Beijing calmly sat on the sidelines and watched. That was even more interesting.

Cross-strait peace is something everyone on Taiwan wants. If a piece of paper signed by both sides can bring peace and stability to the Taiwan Strait, why are people even arguing about it? The problem is inadequate discussion and an narcissistic perspective. That is why people are skeptical about its feaibility.

To compensate for this deficiency, President Ma must flesh out his framework. He must systematically address the objective preconditions. One of the most important preconditions, one that must be clarified, is that our side must first coordinate our internal and external resources. This will strengthen our bargaining position during future negotiations, and enable us to receive better political treatment.

The most obvious objective precondition pertains to Taiwan's economic and trade relationship with the Mainland. Is Taiwan's relationship to the Mainland one of dependence, or interdependence? If it is one-sided dependence on the Mainland, then Taiwan's political status will be negatively impacted once the two sides sign a peace agreement. It may even be degraded. If, on the other hand, Taiwan's relationship with the Mainland is one of interdependence, then the two sides signing of a peace agreement will be a pragmatic affair. It will merely reflect the status quo, in which there is no call for [immediate] reunification, no independence, and no use of force. In other words, it will merely stabilize the current cross-Strait peace by writing it into law. It will establish a solid foundation for a win-win relationship.

Therefore during our current stage of economic development and planning, we must promote cross-Strait economic interdependence. Taiwan urgently needs the vast Mainland domestic market. On the other hand, it must also preserve its long-term economic advantages, The Mainland values and seeks cutting-edge technology, advanced management techniques, and superior cultural creative ability. To this end, our government has long called for the establishment of an Asia-Pacific operations center, to be Implemented as soon as possible.

More importantly, Taiwan must become the economic hub that links the Mainland with the outside world. It must help the Mainland economy to internationalize. It must help the international economy to penetrate the Mainland market. To this purpose, the government must integrate Taiwan's international web of human and economic connections. It must make a concerted effort to sign free trade agreements (FTAs) with other nations. It must actively participate in the system of international economic cooperation. The full internationalization of Taiwan's economy will increase our say in our own affairs. It will help maintain reciprocity in cross-Strait political negotiations. This basis for cross-Strait economic relations and trade is mutual interdependence. Only with mutual interdependence, can there be mutual trust. Only with mutual trust, can there be genuine equality.

President Ma's cross-Strait peace agreement proposal is courageous. and demonstrates unexpected initiative. He seized the intiative. He may have enabled our side to strike a more favorable deal. Seizing the initiative is better than passively sitting at the negotiating table. But seizing the initiative requires detailed follow up. Detailed follow up increases our bargaining power. Otherwise, initiative alone, without preparation for aggressive negotiations, is unlikely to achieve positive results. Foremost is the need to integrate economic power and autonomy. If this is carried out successfully, other matters, such as arriving at a domestic consensus, or agreement between political parties, will be easy.

The objective preconditions for a cross-Strait peace agreement are more important than the subjective preconditions. Our government must strengthen our bargaining position. It must solicit public support. Without public support, then all of its efforts will be for naught.

兩岸和平協議簽署所應具備的條件
2011-10-30 中國時報

馬英九總統日前拋出「洽簽兩岸和平協議」的構想，其震撼力瞬間穿透海內外，成為高度發燙的政治話題。但這項構想將來能否實現，主要取決因素是「主客觀條件是否充分配合」，而非單方面的「主觀願望」乃至「一廂情願」。換言之，將來必須要有「天時地利人和」的環境，兩岸和平協議才能簽得成又簽得好。

從這個角度看，馬總統提出的上述構想，其內涵似乎偏於「過度主觀」，主要表現在他所強調的三個前提，就是「民意支持、國家需要、國會監督」，這些通通是我方的「內生變數」，而無關於外部客觀因素的影響。特別是，馬總統事後又追加了「通過公投」之條件，因而引發了藍綠兩大陣營的激烈論戰，益使兩岸和平協議洽簽話題之討論趨於「內化」，彷彿是台灣內部一場「茶壺裡的風暴」。難怪有越來越多的人，把上述構想視為2012年總統大選的選戰話題，認為它在選完才會「見真章」。其中，中共方面之對該構想保持「冷眼旁觀」態度，更是耐人尋味。

無論如何，「兩岸和平」畢竟是台灣所有民眾共同的期盼。如果將來透過兩岸簽署一紙協議，就可以帶來兩岸穩定的和平局面，那人們還有什麼好去質疑和爭論的？現在的問題是，相關構想的論述不足，且立場過於「自我」，因而人們對它的「可操作性」頗有疑慮。

為了彌補這項缺憾，馬總統有必要強化該項構想的論述架構，主要應增加「客觀條件」的系統化表述。其中最重要的，是要清楚表明，我方如何統籌內部及外部資源，以作為將來和中共洽簽和平協議的籌碼，並藉此來爭取較好的政治待遇。

關於上述的客觀條件，最顯而易見的是，台灣對大陸的經貿關係，究竟是「依賴關係」還是「互賴關係」。如果是一面倒的依賴大陸，那將來兩岸雙方一旦洽簽和平協議，台灣的政治地位一定會受衝擊，而有降階的可能。反之，如是雙方互賴，則彼此所簽署的和平協議，就很可能會務實反映當前「不統不獨不武」的形勢，也就是把現時兩岸和平的態勢，加以制度化和穩定化，那就是兩岸雙贏的堅實基礎。

所以，我方現階段的經濟發展規劃，在兩岸經貿部分，一定要抓緊「促成兩岸互賴」的主軸。台灣誠然迫切需要大陸龐大的內需市場，但另方面，也應長期保有一套經濟優勢條件，而被大陸所珍視及積極爭取，如尖端的產業科技、先進的經營管理技術、高超的文化創意能力等。為此，我政府喊了很多年的「建立亞太營運中心」口號，應儘速落實執行。

更重要的是，台灣要努力扮演「大陸經濟與國際經濟連結樞紐」的角色，而得以高效率協助大陸經濟走出國際，及幫助國際經濟走進大陸。為了達到這樣的目的，我政府應大力整合台灣的國際經濟人脈和錢脈，全力對外洽簽自由貿易協定（FTA），積極參與國際性的經濟合作體系。台灣經濟的充分國際化，可以提高我方的「發言權」，也有助於未來兩岸政治性談判維持「對等」格局，因為它是兩岸經貿互賴的基礎。有互賴，才有互信。有互信，才有真正的對等。

總的來看，馬總統之提出洽簽兩岸和平協議構想，可謂勇氣十足，況且是在各方意料之外主動提出。這樣的作法，有「掌握先機」的效用，因此有可能簽出對我方比較有利的協議，總比被動坐上談判桌為好。但是，在「主動出擊」之後，還要趕緊進行一系列的「配套工作」，以充實自身的談判實力。否則，空有積極的動機，卻無積極的談判準備，到最後也難以談出什麼好結果。而在各種準備工作中，經濟力的整合和自主是最重要的。這項工作做好了，其他的事項，如國內共識、政黨協調等，都容易解決。

要言之，在洽簽兩岸和平協議這件大事上，客觀條件其實比主觀條件更重要。我政府一定要把現實的談判實力加以強化了，再去問民意為何。如果還沒有具備這樣的條件，再怎麼講都不算數。