Cross-Strait Confrontation: Cui Bono?

Cross-Strait Confrontation: Cui Bono?
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
February 24, 2015

Executive Summary: The DPP scored a major victory during the nine in one elections. Since then it has become ever more bold. Its stance on the 1992 consensus and the Taiwan independence party platform has hardened. Su Chi is a former Secretary-General of the National Security Council, and Chairman of the Taiwan Forum. Su recently issued a warning. He said that if the cross-Strait policy of the DPP presidential candidate are perceived as undermining stability in the Taiwan Strait, and as moving toward Taiwan independence, Xi Jinping will take preemptive action, and Taiwan will “feel him”.

Full Text Below:

We have three questions on cross-Strait relations. What precisely are cross-Strait relations? Will the Chinese mainland allow the DPP to lead Taiwan towards independence? Whom will cross-Strait confrontation ultimately benefit?

Should we seek Taiwan independence?

The DPP scored a major victory during the nine in one elections. Since then it has become ever more bold. Its stance on the 1992 consensus and the Taiwan independence party platform has hardened. Su Chi is a former Secretary-General of the National Security Council, and Chairman of the Taiwan Forum. Su recently issued a warning. He said that if the cross-Strait policy of the DPP presidential candidate are perceived as undermining stability in the Taiwan Strait, and as moving toward Taiwan independence, Xi Jinping will take preemptive action, and Taiwan will “feel him”.

Su's outspoken observations drew Green Camp fire. Some on the Internet accused Su of helping the CCP to intimidate Taiwan with words and weapons. Were Su'
s observations intimidation, or prophecy? Or were they bitter medicine and wise counsel? One need not and should not accuse Su of ulterior motives. One should instead return to the key point. Was Su telling the truth?

Does one understand the public mood on the Mainland? Does one understand CCP leadership style and decision-making? Does one understand Xi Jinping? If one does, one will realize that Su was not intimidating Taiwan. The DPP accused Su of "selling out Taiwan". Instead, it should be honest and answer the question in the heart of everyone on Taiwan. What are Tsai Ing-wen's plans? Tsai Ing-wen once referred to Taiwan independence as a "natural ingredient". During the DPP All Party Conference she prevented others from freezing the Taiwan independence party platform. Does Tsai Ing-wen intend to make Taiwan independence part of her bid for the presidency?

If she does, she must honestly tell the people what consequences Taiwan independence will bring. She must not equivocate. If the people are willing to accept the consequences of Taiwan independence, if they are not misled, if they make the choice freely, then everyone will bear the consequences of Taiwan independence together.

If Tsai does not, then we must ask, why not? What are you afraid of? You must also honestly tell the people precisely where you stand. If Tsai is afraid to do so, that proves Su Chi was right. Taiwan independence is not a free promotional cold drink offered during a long, hot summer. A price must be paid, one that as Su Chi noted, the Taiwan people will “feel”.

Two Anti-Mainland Lies

We at this newspaper, oppose Taiwan independence. We oppose Taiwan independence deception and anti-mainland demagoguery even more. Over the years, Taiwan independence advocates have disseminated ambiguous Taiwan independence half-truths. Internally, they have hijacked the DPP. As a result, the DPP has spun its wheels on cross-Strait policy. It has been unable to reform itself. It has been unable to freeze the Taiwan independence party platform. Even Frank Hsieh's open and moderate “constitutional one China” cross-Strait initiative has been aborted in this political atmosphere.

Externally, it continues to spread populist hatred and fear of Mainland China. This sort of populist demagoguery was apparent in the Sunflower Student Movement and contributed to the DPP victory in the nine in one elections.
It has enabled it to create a political atmosphere and celebrate an election victory. It has even enabled the DPP to revel in a premature 2016 victory celebration. It is now confident that even if the two sides remain at loggerheads, the DPP will still win the election.

Worse still are anti-Mainland policy claims, which involve two lies. Lie One: CCP threats are all bark and no bite. The CCP only dares to sound off. It dares not take action. Lie Two: The United States has the Taiwan independence movement's back. If anything happens in the Taiwan Strait, the US will ride to the rescue. These lies reinforce each other. Lie Two increases confidence in Lie One.

Take Lie Two. In late 2003, one US poll indicated that 74% of all Americans opposed US aid to Taiwan in the event the Chinese Communists invade Taiwan. It is not difficult to understand the mood of the American people. Also, the poll was conducted in 2003. Today, 12 years later, Mainland China is many times stronger. Today, any Sino-US military confrontation would exact a far higher price on the US than in 2003. The US-China relationship is coopetition. But in fact cooperation greatly outweighs competition. Economically the two sides may experience friction, but at a deeper level, they are interdependent. On global strategy, including the Korean Peninsula, in Russia and Ukraine, the Islamic State, and other global threats, the United States needs a strategic partnership with the Chinese mainland. Therefore the likelihood of the United States sending troops to Taiwan to defend against the Chinese mainland is zero. How can any responsible political party bet Taiwan's safety on such overwhelming odds?

Opposition to Mainland China traps one in a cycle of hate

Are Chinese Communist Party military threats empty bluffs? That depends on how far the Green Camp goes with its anti-Mainland antics. Unless necessary, no one wants to resort to force. That merely leads to a worst case scenario, in which both parties are wounded. But anti-Mainland antics had better not involve Taiwan independence, or collide head on with the CCP's national goals, or challenge the legitimacy of Chinese Communist Party rule. If they do, the question will not be whether the CCP resorts to force, but whether CCP leaders can justify not using force before the Mainland public. If outward directed Taiwan independence antics continue to escalate, the CCP may not immediately resort to force. But they will lead step by step toward a vicious cycle of cross-Strait hostility. Eventually the foundation for cross-Strait exchanges will be destroyed. Escalating cross-Strait conflict may extend to diplomatic, economic and social exchanges at all levels. Taiwan's international space will be further limited. Can Taiwan's fragile economy withstand such shocks? Can we withstand such attacks? If the DPP persists in its opposition to Mainland China, who exactly will benefit? They know the answer to that question without asking.

Is the DPP unwilling to help Taiwan in a responsible manner? If so, the people of Taiwan must think for themselves. An anti-Mainland posture is infeasible.  Both sides want peace. Only peace enables cooperation. Only cooperation enables win/win. This is our sincere recommendation to the DPP and all the people of the nation.

This newspaper has consistently said that "genuine rationality means genuine lover for Taiwan". Genuine rationality is the method. Genuine love for Taiwan is the goal. The antonym of "genuine" is "fake". Genuine love for Taiwan has nothing to do with the hollow slogan, "love for Taiwan". Everyone knows how to shout “love for Taiwan”. But genuine love for Taiwan will not harm Taiwan. Instead it will enable the people of Taiwan to enjoy peace and happiness, and a chance to live the good life. Genuine love requires an objective test that determines whether politicians genuinely love Taiwan. That is "genuine rationality". Rhetoric must be backed by reality. It must with stand the acid test. Speak the truth. Do not deceive yourself. Do not deceive the people. Do not deceive Taiwan.

社論－對抗的兩岸關係 最終對誰有利？
2015年02月24日 04:10
本報訊

首先，我們要就兩岸關係提出3個詢問：兩岸關係究竟是什麼關係？中國大陸會容忍民進黨帶領台灣走向台獨嗎？對抗的兩岸關係究竟對兩岸哪一方有利？

要不要追求台獨？

九合一選舉，民進黨贏得重大勝利後，更顯得自信，在台獨黨綱與九二共識問題上，立場更僵硬。前國安會祕書長、台灣論壇董事長蘇起心所謂危地提出警訊，他指出，若民進黨總統候選人提出的兩岸政策，被認定有損台海穩定，確定走向台獨路線，習近平將主動出手，且讓台灣「有感」。

他的直言不諱果然引來綠營的批評，網路上也有人嘲諷蘇起幫中共對台灣「文攻武嚇」。蘇起說的話究竟是恫嚇、危言？還是苦諫、忠言？不必也不應用陰謀論誅心，而應回到一個關鍵，那就是蘇起說的話，是不是真話？

了解大陸社會民氣、中共決策體系及習近平領導風格的人，大概都不會認同「蘇起恐嚇台灣」的粗鄙攻訐。民進黨不應該指責蘇起「賣台」，而應該誠實回答台灣人民內心的問題：曾經把「台獨」定調為「天然成分」，在民進黨全代會擋下「凍結台獨黨綱」案的蔡英文，要不要把追求台灣獨立當做本次總統的參選政見？

如果要，就明明白白的把台獨會帶來的後果告訴國人，說出真話，不要曖昧模糊。如果台灣人民願意接受台獨的後果，意謂人民本於不被誤導的自由意志做出了選擇，那麼大家就一起勇敢承擔、面對選擇台獨的後果。

如果蔡英文不要，那麼我們要問，為什麼？怕什麼？也一樣請民進黨把話說清楚講明白。如果蔡英文不敢，那不就證明蘇起所言非虛，因為台獨不是免費的夏日促銷冷飲，要付出的是如蘇起所說的，會讓台灣人民「有感」的代價！

反中 隱含兩個欺騙

我們反對台獨，但我們更反對不說真話的台獨所操弄的反中情緒。長期以來，獨派人士一直用一種不說清楚、曖昧朦朧的台獨意識進行反中宣傳，這種話說半套式的欺騙，對內，成功綁架了民進黨，讓民進黨在兩岸政策原地踏步，無法轉型，包括凍結台獨黨綱，乃至於謝長廷的憲法一中等較為開放和緩的兩岸改革工程，都在這樣的氛圍下，只有胎死腹中的悲劇結局。

對外，則是不斷擴散仇中與恐中的民粹情緒，從太陽花學運到民進黨九合一大勝，都可以看到這一系列的民粹操弄，確實獲得了主導社會氣氛並創造勝選契機，甚至已「提前」享受2016年的「勝選心情」，擺出「兩岸繼續鐵板，選舉照樣過關」的自信。

更糟糕的是治理面的反中操作，中間隱含著兩個隱藏的欺騙上。一是，中共的武嚇只是青蛙鼓肚皮，虛張聲勢、敢喊不敢做；二是，有美國當靠山，台海有事，美國會馳援。而這兩者有著相互增強的作用，第二騙強化了第一騙的自信。

先看第二騙，2003年底美國有一份民調指出，高達74%的美國民眾反對美國向台灣保證會在中共攻台時出手搭救。美國民眾的心情不難理解，而且那是2003年的民調，12年後的今天，大陸的國力翻數番，今日中美若出現軍事對抗，美國要付出的代價絕對比2003年更高。現在美中關係雖有競爭有合作，但實際上合作的面向已大於競爭。經濟上雙方有摩擦，但更深的是互賴。在全球戰略上，不管是朝鮮半島的變數、俄羅斯與烏克蘭的情勢、伊斯蘭國對全球的威脅等方方面面，美國都需要建立與中國大陸的戰略合作關係。由此以觀，美國為台灣出兵與大陸抗衡的機率就算不是「零」，會有多少？一個負責任的政黨，豈可將台灣的安危押在微小且不可測的機率上。

抗中 陷入仇視循環

至於中共武嚇是不是虛張聲勢，則要看綠營把反中上綱到什麼程度？非到必要，沒有人想動武，那是傷彼一千、自傷八百的最壞決定。但若反中上綱到台獨，將直撞中共的民族大義，那是中共統治的正當性基礎，問題將不是中共要不要動武，而是中共領導人要如何找到「不動武」的理由對內交代？如果是台獨以外的反中操作繼續升高，也許中共未有即刻動武的迫切性，但也將一步步把兩岸推向仇視循環，毀去好不容易打下的兩岸交流基礎，雙方逐步升高的衝突，也可能擴及外交、經濟與社會交流等各層面，以台灣目前狹限的國際空間與脆弱的經濟體質，我們有多厚的實力承受這些衝擊？值不值得去承受這些衝擊呢？如果民進黨繼續在對抗的道路冒進，終局究竟對誰有利，答案不問自明。

這方方面面，如果民進黨不願意以負責任的態度幫台灣設想，台灣人民就得自己想。反中不可行，兩岸要和平，和平才有合作，合作才能雙贏，這是我們對民進黨與全體國人的誠摰獻議。

本報一以貫之呼籲「真道理性、真愛台灣」，「真道理性」是方法，「真愛台灣」是目的。「真」的對稱是「假」，真愛台灣是要與「愛台灣」的口號區隔。愛台灣人人會喊，但是否出於真心，會不會愛之適足以害之，反而讓台灣人民失去和平幸福、過好日子的機會？「真」，需要客觀的方法檢驗，檢驗政治人物是否真愛台灣的尺標，就是「真道理性」。論述必須有憑據、經得起檢驗，就是要講實話，不要欺騙自己、欺騙人民、欺騙台灣。