Wang Zhang Meeting: Cross-Strait New Normal

Wang Zhang Meeting: Cross-Strait New Normal
United Daily News Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
February 5, 2015

Executive Summary: Beijing is not the only one that must adjust to the "new normal".  Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP may be feeling smug. But they too must abandon the old normal. They must disabuse themselves of their delusions. They must cease their -deception. They must forsake their pipe dream of Taiwan independence. That will reduce the labor pains associated with the new normal. Only then can we look forward to a "new normal".

Full Text Below: 

Mainland GDP has plummeted. The Beijing regime refers to it as the "new normal". By the same token, cross-Strait relations following the Kuomintang defeat can also be described as a "new normal".

The KMT suffered a major defeat in the nine in one local elections. But Beijing did not miss a step. It still allowed Chen Deming to visit Taiwan. The Cross-Strait Entrepreneurs Summit will still be held, on schedule. STA Technical Consultations will still take place in Beijing, as previously planned. Two months after the election, Zhang Zhijun and Wang Yu-chi will meet this weekend on Kinmen to reminisce. The CCP undoubtedly understands the new reality. This is the "new normal". These changes in cross-Strait relations must be acknowledged.

The “old normal" maintained that Ma Ying-jeou's landslide victory meant that most voters supported cross-Strait reconciliation. It meant that most voters supported closer political and economic ties between the two sides. Wave upon wave of “two states theory” and “one nation rhetoric on each side led to historic changes. New opportunities arose. Cross-Strait direct flights and ECFA clarified the Taiwan public's understanding, and eliminated calls for Taiwan independence. Over the past six or seven years the physical basis for cross-Strait relations has indeed been reinforced. But the emotional basis has been repeatedly weakened. The Mainland authorities adhere to reductive materialism. They believe in the materialistic old normal. They assumed that concessions, agreements, and procurements would provide prosperity, and melt the hearts of the public on Taiwan. But paradoxically during last year's election campaign, the Sunflower Student Movement obdurately rejected the STA despite all its concessions, bringing the "old normal" to an abrupt end.

The first Wang Zhang meeting was held one month before the outbreak of the Sunflower Student Movement. This was during the last stages of the "old normal". But in the wake of the Sunflower Student Movement, Zhang Zhijun's visit to Taiwan will address the "san zhong yi qing” or “three medium/middles one young” problem. This foretells the advent of the "new normal". The current Wang Zhang meeting in Kinmen will debut after the Kuomintang's recent defeat. It marks the beginning of an even longer term "new normal".

What will the "new normal" entail? It is likely to entail greater long term momentum for Taiwan independence. The KMT is not necessarily down and out. But it may once again find itself in the opposition after 2016. How long will it remain out of power? No one knows. Under Democratic Progressive Party rule, cross-Strait relations will surely be difficult and filled with conflict. Eventually the DPP will come to realize that cross-Strait reintegration is inevitable. But before that, it must investigate the possibility of a cross-Strait political agreement. That will be a long process. But it truly will be the new normal.

The third Wang Zhang meeting is seen as the start of the “new normal". Why? Because it constitutes the highest level contacts yet between cross-Strait officialdom. It is being convened a mere two months after the defeat of the Kuomintang. The CCP is probably psychologically prepared for the policy consequences. This action may be an attempt by Xi Jinping to gauge public sentiment on Taiwan. Last September he spoke of a "meeting of minds”. The CCP may need to prepare itself for a "new normal" definition of a “meeting of minds”.  It may no longer be able to focus exclusively on materialism. Reintegration may need to include both emotional and material appeals. These may be the identifying characteristics of the new normal.

Consider the problems with the "old normal". The CCP offered Taiwan only economic concessions. It totally ignored emotional factors. For example, the public on Taiwan still feels hemmed in. Ma Ying-jeou has been in office over six years. But he has yet to join a single international organization. Ma Ying-jeou hoped to attend APEC in Beijing. But Xi Jinping promptly put a damper on that hope. Beijing may have allowed direct official contacts across the Strait. It may have addressed Wang Yu-chi by his official title. But it refused to allow the two sides' agencies to interact on an equal footing. Such practices inevitably undermined the old normal. They prevented it from gaining currency among the public on Taiwan.

Therefore we need a more rational "new normal" policy, one that grants Taiwan greater dignity in cross-Strait  interaction. One that allows Taiwan to breathe instead choke. After last last year's election, Beijing hawks began urging a harder line on the 1992 consensus. That is precisely the wrong approach. The "new normal" should soften the 1992 consensus. It should encourage the DPP and the Green Camp to change their thinking. It should reward them if they respond by making changes. Beijing should not adopt a tougher policy in a fit of anger.

During the Kinmen talks Zhang Zhijun and Wang Yu-chi will discuss trade issues. But the two sides joining the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" (RCEP) is the most important issue of all. It is not simply an "economic issue". It is an emotional issue involving international breathing space. When Beijing allows Taipei to participate in comprehensive RCEP negotiations, that will be the first act under the "new normal".

Beijing is not the only one that must adjust to the "new normal".  Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP may be feeling smug. But they too must abandon the old normal. They must disabuse themselves of their delusions. They must cease their -deception. They must forsake their pipe dream of Taiwan independence. That will reduce the labor pains associated with the new normal. Only then can we look forward to a "new normal".

王張金門會：兩岸新常態的起點
2015-02-05 02:06:53 聯合報 社論

北京以「新常態」一詞形容ＧＤＰ掉得很凶的大陸經濟；同理，國民黨敗選後的兩岸，亦應以「新常態」看待。

國民黨九合一地方大選慘敗後，北京沒有失去節奏，依然讓陳德銘訪台，如期舉行兩岸企業家峰會、貨貿的技術磋商也在北京上場，而選後不過兩個月，張志軍與王郁琦這個周末仍要在金門舉行「王張會」敘舊。中共無疑已認清現實，這些都是「新常態」，是兩岸演化循環中必然要面對的變化。

曾經以為的「常態」是：馬英九高票當選，反映選民對兩岸和解的普遍認同，大多數人鼎力支持兩岸走向更密切的政經連結，它是歷經「兩國論」、「一邊一國」等波濤後的歷史翻轉，更是全新的機遇，藉由搭建兩岸直航、經濟合作框架，將可穩固台灣民眾的情境認知、消弭島內的台獨聲浪。然而，證諸六、七年來的發展，兩岸物質的表土確實夯硬了，但兩岸心理的內核卻一再剝解。

篤信唯物主義的中共當局，勢必曾經相信這個舊常態的物質基礎，以為藉由讓利、契作、採購所撐出來的榮景，會融化台灣的民心。但弔詭的是，去年的太陽花運動，對一紙仍然讓利的《兩岸服貿協議》進行徹底的反對論述，「舊常態」就此戛然而止。

第一次南京的「王張會」在太陽花爆發前一個月舉行，仍在「舊常態」的尾聲之中；但太陽花後，張志軍來台鎖定走訪「三中一青」的第二次「王張會」，儼然已是「新常態」的前奏。這次金門的「王張會」，是在國民黨慘敗之後登場，則是宣告勢必更為久遠的「新常態」啟動。

「新常態」的氛圍將是：台灣內部的台獨聲勢有可能長期居高，國民黨雖未必一蹶不振，但二○一六卻可能再度淪為在野，且不知其盡頭；兩岸必須在民進黨中央執政的情境下，進行不斷地纏鬥與艱困地調整，最終得來台灣確鑿的認知：兩岸統合確是最終歸趨，但在它之前，必須探討出一個可以相互包容的政治協議。這是長期的過程，並且是真正的常態。

將第三次「王張會」視為「新常態」的起點，主要是它乃兩岸官方最高層次接觸機制，卻在國民黨慘敗兩個月後迅速登場，應是中共已具有心理體認下明顯有意識的政策抉擇。這可以視為習近平探索台灣民心的行動起點，而去年九月他提出「心靈契合」說，則是進入「新常態」的理論預備。心靈契合意味著，不再專注於物質，而要尋求心靈與物質的「調和」與「合一」，這是新常態的辨認特徵。

診察「舊常態」的病徵可以發現，中共只圖在經濟上儘可能供應台灣索求，全然忽略台灣在心靈層次的期待，諸如，台灣在國際空間上仍然甚為窒礙，馬英九任內六年多竟無法成功加入某一國際組織，甚至馬英九提議出席北京ＡＰＥＣ，也被習近平快速回絕。北京固然放手實現兩岸官方直接接觸，稱呼王郁琦的官銜，卻又為德不卒地拒讓各個部會比照辦理。這些作法，皆不免消耗舊常態持續的能量，無法為它爭取更長時間的擴散與認同。

故而，進入「新常態」的政策理性應是：更深刻地思考台灣在兩岸互動上必須贏得的尊嚴，它必須採取「呼吸策略」而不是「窒息策略」。去年選後，北京鷹派人士主張「硬化九二共識」恰恰正是錯解，「新常態」反而應該「軟化九二共識」，以鼓勵民進黨與綠營人物的改變為思維主調，並且以獎賞作為回應他們的改變，而絕非搬出更強硬的封殺政策，只逞一時之快。

固然這次金門會談，張志軍跟王郁琦彷彿仍是討論經貿議題，但兩岸共同加入「區域全面經濟夥伴協議」（ＲＣＥＰ）是重中之重，而它絕不僅是一項「經濟議題」，而更是國際空間的「心靈議題」，當中共同意台灣參與ＲＣＥＰ的全面談判，將是「新常態」下的第一件插旗行動。

然而，進入「新常態」的並不單單只有北京，如今躊躇滿志的蔡英文與民進黨也須拋棄舊我，解構妄尊自欺的虛幻台獨，減少新常態下的陣痛，則「新常態」或尚頗可寄眺。