Will the Mainland Change to Accommodate the DPP?

Will the Mainland Change to Accommodate the DPP?
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
February 26, 2015

Executive Summary: Since 2008, cross-Strait interaction has increased. Tourism, business deals, and cultural and educational exchanges have created a boom unseen over the past half century. During the Spring Festival in particular, many Mainland tourists choose to spend the New Year on Taiwan. Many on Taiwan watch Mainland shows via satellite networks. Six or seven years ago, such a scenario was unimaginable. This peaceful scene was achieved with great difficulty. Who is willing to return to the former standoff, or even precipitate a war?

Full Text Below:

Since 2008, cross-Strait interaction has increased. Tourism, business deals, and cultural and educational exchanges have created a boom unseen over the past half century. During the Spring Festival in particular, many Mainland tourists choose to spend the New Year on Taiwan. Many on Taiwan watch Mainland shows via satellite networks. Six or seven years ago, such a scenario was unimaginable. This peaceful scene was achieved with great difficulty. Who is willing to return to the former standoff, or even precipitate a war?

This peace however, was never a godsend. It was not something we should take for granted. It was the result of great wisdom and foresight. Think of how many people sought peace but failed to achieve it. Many people have forgotten this merely because we are on the eve of an election. Or they have blanked out of awareness the difficulty with which this peace was achieved. Today, as we enjoy the fruits of peace, we must remain vigilant. If we allow a reaction to set in, the fruits of peace we now take for granted may well evaporate.

In a previous “Genuine Love for Taiwan” editorial this newspaper noted that the main obstacle standing in the way of cross-Strait peace is anti-(Mainland) China mob sentiment, incited by certain politicians and activists. Last March the Sunflower Student Movement captured a beachhead when it opposed the STA. It then obstructed all cross-Strait bills in the legislature. These reactionaries are now taking advantage of the low prestige of the Ma government. They are advancing the specious argument that as long as the DPP wins office, Beijing will change to accommodate them. In other words, many pro-Taiwan independence politicians are convinced that if the DPP becomes the ruling party in 2016, they need not bother making any changes in cross-Strait policy. Put simply, they intend to force the Mainland to change to accommodate them.

Taiwan is not the Center of the World

This argument implies that no matter which political party comes to power, Beijing has no choice but to maintain peaceful cross-Strait relations. Therefore, the DPP need not make any adjustments to its cross-Strait policy. For example, it need not recognize the 1992 consensus. As long as the DPP comes to power, Beijing will automatically change to accommodate the DPP, and Taiwan will continue to enjoy the peace dividend. This sort of thinking assumes that we are the center of the universe, and that the world revolves around us. But anyone with any understanding about global politics knows otherwise. What makes Taiwan think it can impose its own arbitrary and subjective whims on the rest of the world?

First Vilify, then Benefit?

The DPP assumes that the Mainland will change to accommodate the DPP in the event it returns to power. The DPP clings to another strategic assumption as well. It assumes that it can continue to incite anti-(Mainland) China hatred, and demonize any political parties or politicians who seek cross-Strait peace as "pro-China traitors to Taiwan”. It assumes that upon winning, it can get a free ride merely by "unconditionally accepting the policies of the previous administration”, then sit back and enjoy the fruits of cross-Strait exchanges. Put simply, many green camp politicians today chant anti-(Mainland) China slogans. They smear their opponents as “Com-symps”. Meanwhile however, they or their relatives frantically make investments on the Mainland. How many people benefit from generous Mainland concessions, yet still vote for the DPP? They invoke "Com-symp" and "selling out Taiwan" rhetoric as weapons against their opponents, while confidently enjoying the dividends from cross-Strait exchanges. But where did these dividends originate, if not from the harshly ridiculed KMT and Ma Ying-jeou? We must note of course that this is a simplistic linear thinking. It ignores the dynamic changes, mutual suspicions, and risk/reward calculations made by the CCP and DPP. The Green Camp is not simple-minded, but it is deceiving simple-minded voters.

The DPP has been out of power for the past six or seven years. But its theory and practice regarding cross-Strait relations has not kept pace with the times. Back then the two sides could not fly airliners directly at each other. Back then there was no tourism, no Mainland concessions, no crowds of Mainland tourists at Sun Moon Lake, Alishan and the National Palace Museum, no pandas in the local zoo, no Mainland students walking about on local college campuses, no flattering comments in the Mainland press about how "Taiwan's chief attraction is its people”. Back then there was only political demagoguery, only the incitement of cross-Strait hatred for personal political ambition. Such maneuvers led to the embarrassment of Beijing and Washington “jointly disciplining” an unruly Taipei. Now all this has been forgotten. But think about it. Without a ruling party change in 2008, where would cross-Strait relations be today?

Lest we forget, the prosperity that accompanied cross-Strait exchanges were rooted in mutual recognition of the 1992 consensus. What if this premise no longer existed? Would the prosperity still exist? Set aside Beijing official declarations for the moment. A political party that refuses to recognize the 1992 consensus, and even refuses to abandon Taiwan independence, returns to power. If Beijing makes no changes in its Taiwan policy, Communist leaders will be subject to severe criticism from within. Furthermore, if any of the parties running for office in 2016 engage in anti-(Mainland) China demagoguery, Beijing officials who continue to offer concessions to Taiwan are sure to be run out of office.

The Mainland Will Not Make Concessions on Basic Principles

Moreover, President Xi Jinping is now in power. His governing style is significantly different from that of previous leaders. Internally, he is responding to an overheated economy. He is waging an anti-corruption campaign in order to impose bureaucratic discipline. Externally, he is trumpeting an all-encompassing "dream of a great nation". He is no longer taking a low-keyed approach on core issues of territory, territorial waters, and other issues relating to sovereignty. He has more chips to play and is playing them with greater confidence. The numbers show that, as of 2015 the Chinese mainland, long since ceased being a "rising great power". It has already attained the status of a global economic, technological, and military power. When such a great power deals with cross-Strait affairs, it may be pragmatic and flexible. But it will never make concessions on matters of fundamental principle.

Under the 1992 consensus, it took six or seven years to create our current peace and prosperity. If that consensus is rejected by either side, making this boom evaporate before our very eyes will not be difficult. The Democratic Progressive Party and Tsai Ing-wen believe the DPP is likely to become the ruling party. If so, they must be wise about cross-Strait policy. They must throw open the doors and take the high road.

We would like to believe that no matter which party is in power in 2016, it will be reluctant to take blame for sabotaging cross-Strait peace. We would like to believe that if the DPP returns to power, it will not be stupid enough to revert to trumpeting Taiwan independence. But will DPP leaders continue to incite anti-(Mainland) China sentiment, while expecting the other side to change to accommodate them? If so, conflict is likely to erupt, and Taiwan is likely to revert to its previous state of self-incarceration. Therefore the DPP must give up its hatred, opposition, and rejection of the Mainland. It must continue the policy of cross-Strait peace and synergistic cross-Strait economic cooperation. It must narrow the psychological distance between people on the two sides. It must promote the social integration of the two sides. Otherwise, voters must open their eyes, and choose accordingly.

社論－大陸會因民進黨執政而改變嗎？
2015年02月26日 04:10
本報訊

海峽兩岸自2008年擴大交流互動，因觀光、商務、文教等頻繁的往來，締造了過往半世紀未曾見證過的榮景。特別是今年春節期間，不少陸客選擇在台灣過年，也有不少台灣閱聽眾透過衛星網路收看大陸春晚，6、7年前這還是難以想像的畫面。好不容易走到這般和平景象，誰還願意重返昔日對立、甚至兵戎相見的局面？

然而，「和平」從來不是天賜的，更不是理所當然的，而是憑藉著智慧與遠見經營出來，試想當代世上有多少地域企求和平而不可得，只是大選前夕，不少人或已忘卻，或選擇性忽略和平得來不易。在我們當下享受和平的果實之際，永遠必須深自警惕，如果聽任逆流持續瀰漫擴張，許多被視為理所當然的和平果實，很可能旦夕之間就會化為烏有。

誠如我們在〈真道理性真愛台灣系列社論一〉所指出，橫擋在兩岸間腐蝕著和平果實的最大逆流，就是若干政客與運動人士操作的「仇中」思潮，此一思潮在去年3月學運時，藉著操作反服貿攻下灘頭堡後，就持續擋下所有兩岸交流的立法進程，如今這股逆流更藉著馬政府的聲望低落，不斷釋出一種似是而非的論調，謂只要民進黨拿下政權，北京自然會朝他們調整。換言之，民進黨乃至眾多獨派政客似乎深信，如果2016年的政黨輪替垂手可得，何必還要在兩岸政策上做任何調整呢？說再白一點，屆時會是大陸被迫做調整。

台灣不是世界中心

這種論調隱含的潛台詞是，不管哪一個政黨上台執政，北京都必須維繫兩岸和平發展大局。所以，民進黨根本不必在兩岸政策上做任何調整，包括不必承認「九二共識」，只要民進黨獲得政權，北京自然就會調整，民進黨可持續享受和平紅利。這種思維邏輯的特點，是彷彿將自己想像為地球的中心，所有周邊的國家都繞著你轉，但懂點國際政治常識的人都清楚，這哪裡有任何可能？台灣有什麼本錢，可以憑自己的主觀意願恣意而為？

豈可先醜化再享受

倡議大陸會隨民進黨執政而調整論調的另一重策略思維是，一方面藉意識形態操作「反中」，將台灣社會所有倡議兩岸和平的政黨、政治人物全打成「親中」、「賣台」，若能因此勝選後再「概括承受」，就可搭便車享受所有兩岸交流的果實。說白一些，今天有多少綠營政客一面高唱反中，使勁將對手抹紅，一面本人或親友拚命在大陸投資置產？又有多少人一面享受對岸的「讓利」，一面照樣票投民進黨？一手拿「親中」、「賣台」作武器打擊對手，另一手理直氣壯享受所有兩岸交流的紅利。如果真有有這樣的好處，該被譏笑笨的，不正是國民黨與馬英九嗎？但我們必須坦率指出，這是一種簡單化的直線思維，忽略了民共相互猜忌關係下的可能動態變化與風險。綠營並非出於頭腦簡單，而是對單純選民的欺瞞。

民進黨失去政權這6、7年來，兩岸關係的思維與操作手法並沒有與時俱進，當年兩岸民航客機還不能對飛，沒有觀光，沒有讓利，沒有擠滿日月潭、阿里山與故宮的陸客，沒有動物園的熊貓，沒有漫步大學校園的陸生，沒有讚嘆「台灣最美的風景是人」的大陸媒體。那時節只有政客的口水，只有藉著激化兩岸相互仇視以獲取政治利益的操作，這種操作甚至一度讓台灣淪為被美中「共管」的難堪境地。如今彷彿這一切都船過水無痕！但回頭想想，如果不是2008年政黨輪替，兩岸會走到今天這般榮景嗎？

不該忘了，今天大家已經熟悉、甚至習慣的兩岸交流榮景，不是奠基於雙方共同認定的「九二共識」嗎？試想當這個前提不復存在，這些榮景還會存在嗎？先不談北京官方曾揭示過的所有聲明，面對一個從不願承認九二共識、甚至不願放棄台獨的政黨上台執政，北京對台政策如果不做任何調整，恐怕任誰擔任中共領導人，都會受到內部嚴厲批判！進一步說，如果任何政黨在2016是藉著「反中」操作而贏得政權，北京當局竟還繼續「讓利」，怕是誰在台上都做不下去了。

原則問題大陸不讓

何況習近平接任國家主席後所展現的種種執政風格，明顯不同於先前的領導人。他一方面對內調整過熱的發展路線，藉著反貪腐整飭官僚紀律，對外則是強調全方位的「大國夢」，在諸多涉及領土、領海等主權核心利益議題上，不再低調妥協，也擁有了更多的籌碼與自信。而種種數據也顯示，2015年的中國大陸，早就不是什麼「大國崛起」，而是一個在經濟、科技與軍事上已經在全球登頂的大國，這樣的一個大國在處理兩岸事務上，務實與彈性是一定有的，但不可能會在原則問題上有任何退讓空間。

兩岸在九二共識前提下，花了6、7年才營造出當下的和平榮景，如果這個共識被任何一方所否決，要讓好不容易才營造出來的榮景消失，一點都不困難。做個負責任的政黨，民進黨或蔡英文既然都認為政黨輪替的機會很大，那麼在兩岸政策思維上就必須多些智慧，多些開大門、走大路的視野。

我們寧願相信，不論是哪個政黨在2016年執政，都不願被扣上破壞兩岸和平的罪名。我們也相信，民進黨如果再度執政，應不至於愚蠢到重新炒作台獨議題，但若一方面持續沉陷在反中動員逆流，一方面期待對岸朝著他們調整，最後換得的恐怕是衝突螺旋現象，重回昔日鎖國與孤島困局。那麼，民進黨就應該放棄仇中、反中、拒中炒作，並承諾執政後將延續台海和平政策，持續推動兩岸經濟的合作與互補，致力縮小兩岸民眾的心理距離，有利兩岸社會融一。否則選民就該擦亮眼睛，作出最聰明選擇。