Eric Chu's Gamble: To Run or Not to Run

Eric Chu's Gamble: To Run or Not to Run
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
May 12, 2015

Executive Summary: The KMT presidential nomination process is what the theatrical world refers to as a “turkey”. The countdown has begun. This weekend, the 16th, is the deadline for primary registration. It is also the day KMT Chairman Eric Chu promised to lay out his plans for the future. In theory, the KMT presidential candidates will be announced today. So far it appears that Eric Chu and Wang Jin-pyng will be the leading men, while Hung Hsiu-chu and Yang Chi-liang will play supporting roles. . Each of them will have their own role to play.

Full Text Below:

The KMT presidential nomination process is what the theatrical world refers to as a “turkey”. The countdown has begun. This weekend, the 16th, is the deadline for primary registration. It is also the day KMT Chairman Eric Chu promised to lay out his plans for the future. In theory, the KMT presidential candidates will be announced today. So far it appears that Eric Chu and Wang Jin-pyng will be the leading men, while Hung Hsiu-chu and Yang Chi-liang will play supporting roles. . Each of them will have their own role to play.

First take Hung Hsiu-chu. Many blue camp leaders are pretentious, insecure, and indecisive. Hung Hsiu-chu by contrast, is resolute and forceful. Her recent performance warrants a "Best Supporting Actor" nomination. Hung Hsiu-chu's candidacy is generally interpreted as "making a statement". She wants to rebuild KMT morale. More importantly, she wants to use her candidacy to underscore the Kuomintang's policy path. The media has also interpreted her candidacy as a way to pressure the party princes to throw their hat in the ring.

Hung Hsiu-chu was a New KMT Alliance member. She is a high-profile “non-mainstream” member. Her political colors are deep blue. It is believed that after the KMT's historic debacle in the nine in one elections, Hung Hsiu-chu intended to run for party chairman, in order to save the party from extinction. When Eric Chu chose to run for party chairman, those close to Hung encouraged her to enter the KMT presidential primaries. They hoped Hung Hsiu-chu's unambiguous political colors, made even brighter during the campaign, would promote debate within the KMT, forcing the KMT to clarify its policy path. Hung Hsiu-chu's nickname is "little hot pepper". Her candidacy would draw attention to key issues and challenge Tsai Ing-wen.

Recently Hung swore to “campaign to the bitter end". Her candidacy has indeed begun to rally deep blue support. But party members are still gathering signatures. Hung's criticisms have largely been directed at the party leadership and the rules of the game. Hung Hsiu-chu's campaign to promote the Kuomintang has not met with much success. Hung Hsiu-chu's political colors may have difficulty attracting swing voters and younger voters. This is Hung's shortcoming.

Another candidate, Yang Chi-liang, has been rather disappointing. When Yang Chi-liang began his campaign, he had much to say. He was right to blast the KMT's money and power games. But Yang Chi-liang failed to seize the opportunity to stand for office. His courageous and resolute demands for fairness and justice did encourage public debate and public attention.

In its early days, right after its founding, the KMT had a left-wing bias. But ever since, it has been a center-right political party. Now that Eric Chu is party chairman, he has vowed to pay attention to social justice and distributive justice, and correct the evils of capitalism and the market economy. So far these have remained at the declaration stage. Except for a wage increase bill, little has been done, and little has been discussed.

If on the matter of reunification vs. independence, Hung Hsiu-chu represents the KMT right-wing, then on the matter of socio-economic policy, Yang Chi-liang

represents the KMT left-wing. Hung and Yang, one right, one left, are perfectly positioned to drive debate within the KMT, to broaden the spectrum of the KMT, give it greater diversity, character, and color.

Eric Chu has repeatedly stated that he will not run. Wang Jin-pyng's moves have since attracted attention. They will definitely affect the KMT nomination. If Wang Jin-pyng eventually decides not to run, the KMT's presidential nomination will likely be an historic first. It will be one without any front runner. It that happens, the party may be forced to draft Eric Chu.

Wang Jin-pyng has long been a political representative of the so-called "nativist blues". He knows how to schmooze and has far-ranging contacts. But Wang's political colors are unclear. He has long maintained his distance from cross-Strait affairs. His cross-Strait policy remains unknown. On the other hand, he has repeatedly opposed the de-Sinicization of the name of the Chinese Kuomintang. He has long maintained links with deep blue elements. But last year, when he and Ma Ying-jeou clashed, he did not hesitate to play the provincial affiliation card and nativist card.

Wang Jin-pyng has long handled political matters in a thorough and prudent manner. If he eventually he decides to run, he must make clear his policy path and let the voters get to know him. In particular, Wang Jin-pyng must not evade matters of cross-Strait relations, legislative reform, and money politics. These are matters about which people have long harbored doubts about him.

On April 20, the China Times published one of three articles on how love of Taiwan must be rooted in reason, and why Eric Chu is the one who can best stabilize cross-Strait relations. He is the one who can turn things around for the KMT. He merely needs to decide.

If he sticks to this guns, and refuses to enter the 2016 presidential election, he would be taking a huge gamble. The risk would be no less than choosing to run now. As “chief coach”, Chairman Eric Chu must demonstrate ambition and energy. The KMT presidential primary must become a political movement in which the Kuomintang rises from the ashes, reborn. The KMT must create a platform and plan a campaign. Both party stalwarts and ordinary voters must focus on the KMT primaries, participate in the debate, and discuss the Kuomintang policy path and Kuomintang party reform. .

社論－選或不選 都是朱立倫的豪賭
2015年05月12日 04:10 主筆室

歹戲拖棚的國民黨總統提名大戲，進入倒數的關鍵時 刻，本周末（16日）就是初選領表並進行連署的最後一天，也是朱立倫主席先前宣布要向社會說明他的規畫的日子。理論上，哪些人參加國民黨總統初選，這一天 就會明朗。目前看來，這場提名大戲有朱立倫、王金平兩位主角和洪秀柱、楊志良兩名配角，各自扮演不同角色、發揮不同作用。

首先來談洪秀 柱。相對於許多藍營領袖人物的矯揉造作，或是左顧右盼、瞻前顧後，洪秀柱的參選倒是明快果敢，近日以來的表現，確實也有「最佳配角」的架式。洪秀柱的參 選，一般的解讀是「志在參加」，目的在於活絡國民黨的整體氛圍，同時，更重要的是要藉參選來闡述她所主張的國民黨路線，也曾有媒體解讀她的參選是為了逼黨 內天王出馬。

洪秀柱過去是新國民黨連線成員，非主流色彩比較鮮明，政治光譜偏於深藍。據了解，九合一大選國民黨空前敗選之後，洪秀柱原本 就有參選黨主席之意，希望救黨圖存，朱立倫參選黨主席之後，親近洪秀柱的人士轉而鼓勵她投入總統初選，希望藉著洪秀柱比較鮮明的政治色彩，透過參選，促進 國民黨內部的辯論，澄清國民黨的路線。當然，以洪秀柱「小辣椒」的封號，她的參選，也有發動議題、挑戰蔡英文的重要功能。

近日以來，洪的 口風轉為「參選到底」，她的參選確實也讓部分深藍支持者開始集結。不過，或許是因為還在黨員連署階段，洪的發言多是集中在炮打黨中央遊戲規則之上，在洪秀 柱參選的初衷─促進國民黨大鳴大放方面，並未見多少成效。另一方面，以洪的政治光譜，也比較難吸引中間選民和年輕族群的目光與支持，這是洪的先天劣勢。

另一位參選者楊志良的表現，就相對令人失望。楊志良參選之初，確實話題性十足，他批評國民黨的金權遊戲規則也有一定道理。不過，楊志良顯然未能把握參選的契機，勇敢而堅定地拋出他向來關注的「公平正義」的課題，捲動更多論辯，和更多社會力的參與。

我們都知道，雖然國民黨創黨初期，曾有一段偏向左翼的歷史淵源，但是長期以來都是偏右翼的政黨，朱立倫擔任黨主席之後，宣稱要重視「公平正義」、「分配正義」課題，要矯治資本主義與市場經濟的弊害，不過迄今多停留在宣示階段，除了加薪法案之外，實際作為有限，更缺乏討論。

如果說，洪秀柱是國民黨統獨立場的右翼代表人物，楊志良本可扮演國民黨內社經立場左翼代表人物，洪楊兩人，一左一右，恰恰好可以既帶動國民黨內論辯，又拉大國民黨的左右光譜，讓國民黨出現比較多元、豐富的政治性格與色彩。

在朱立倫反覆表示絕不參選的情況下，王金平的動向確實動見觀瞻，也將大大決定國民黨的提名人選。如果王金平最後決定棄選，國民黨的總統提名將極可能史無前例成為一場沒有主將的大選，這將逼迫黨內做出決斷，是否決意徵召朱立倫參選。

王 金平長期以來是所謂「本土藍」的政治代表，政通人和，人脈廣結，但是王的政治面貌並不清晰，他本人始終和兩岸事務保持距離，兩岸政策主張不明，另一方面， 他多次反對中國國民黨在黨名上「去中國化」，以維持和深藍群眾的紐帶，然而，當年他與馬英九抗衡時，「省籍牌」、「本土牌」始終是他的一門利器。

如果向來處事穩健周到、政治布局嚴密謹慎的王金平拍板決定參選，確實有必要徹底談清楚路線主張，讓國人真正了解認識王金平，王金平尤其不應迴避兩岸關係、國會改革和金權政治等相關課題，畢竟這是王金平長期受人疑慮的焦點所在。

《中國時報》在4月20日真道理性真愛台灣系列社論三之一就認為朱立倫最能力穩定台海，只要他做出決斷，是最有機會讓國民黨逆轉勝的一個。

但 如果他真的貫徹初衷，堅持不投入2016總統大選，這將是朱立倫政治生命的另一場豪賭，其風險絕不下於親自參選。自居總教練的朱立倫主席，必須展現最大的 政治企圖與能量，讓國民黨的總統初選真正成為一場國民黨浴火重生的政治運動，透過議題的設定和選舉的規畫，讓更多支持者和一般選民將目光集中在國民黨的初 選上，參與到國民黨的政治路線辯論與黨務改革辯論中來。