Renewed Sino-US Conflict Must Be Controlled

Renewed Sino-US Conflict Must Be Controlled
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
May 18, 2015

Executive Summary: Sino-US relations have had their ups and downs this year. They include clashes over the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Net security, China threat theory, and the revised United States Japan "Defense Cooperation Guidelines," The two sides have been at loggerheads. Recent South China Sea disputes have nearly led to military conflict. The US Department of Defense recently accused Mainland China of land reclamation in South China Sea islands and reefs.

Full Text Below:

Sino-US relations have had their ups and downs this year. They include clashes over the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Net security, China threat theory, and the revised United States Japan "Defense Cooperation Guidelines," The two sides have been at loggerheads. Recent South China Sea disputes have nearly led to military conflict.

The US Department of Defense recently accused Mainland China of land reclamation in South China Sea islands and reefs. Citing "freedom of navigation", the US military may dispatch military aircraft and warships to within 12 nautical miles of the disputed reefs. Under the United Nations Convention, territorial waters extend 12 nautical miles from the coast. If the US military enters this zone, it will violate China's territorial sovereignty, and its action will amount to a military provocation.

Beijing's Foreign Minister Guo Chuhua urged Washington to treat the South China Sea issue with "caution". He declared support for freedom of navigation within the South China Sea. But not within China's territorial waters and airspace. There, China will firmly safeguard its territorial sovereignty. The US State Department is playing good cop. It emphasizes that the United States first choice is diplomatic negotiations. Secretary of State Kerry visited Beijing yesterday. The ostensible reason was to make arrangements for the annual US-China Strategic Dialogue to be held in Washington in June. In reality he was there to communicate the US position.

The US has been considering military deterrence in response to the South China Sea dispute for some time. As early as 2010, when Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State, the South China Sea was defined as a vital national interest of the United States. Indications were that Washington might resort to military intervention. Last July, during the sixth Sino-US strategic dialogue, the United States proposed that the South China Sea situation be “frozen". The parties no longer seize reefs, the South China Sea landscape would not change, and no one would take unilateral action. In August it proposed that ASEAN Foreign Ministers meet and voluntarily freeze the South China Sea situation", giving priority to a political solution before a military one. The parties involved were unenthusiastic. Beijing subsequently proposed a "two-track approach", in which the disputants would engage in peaceful negotiations followed by South China Sea maintenance of the peace by the Mainland and ASEAN members. This too failed to receive a positive response from Washington.

Recently, the ASEAN summit declared that "The South China Sea islands and reefs undermine regional peace and security". This was followed by Japan and the Philippines holding South China Sea military exercises under the guise of anti-piracy exercises. Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore held talks on possible joint South China Sea patrols. Japan asked the US to lift export bans on F-22 Raptor stealth fighters. These provocative actions were no accident, and fail to conceal the United States' behind the scenes planning the direction.

The Pentagon recently released its "2015 China's Military and Security Development Report". It endlessly underscored Mainland China's military threat, but turned a blind eye to identical actions by Vietnam and the Philippines, which have also been building military facilities on South China Sea islands and reefs. This reveals the United States' double standards in the face of China's military rise. David Shear, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs, was blunt. Mainland China's airbase runway on Yong Shu Reef in the South China Sea will be complete by 2018. It will then be able to dock an aircraft carrier, posing a major challenge to continued United States military superiority in the western Pacific.

The Obama government is mired in both domestic and diplomatic difficulties. At a time like this, the United States does not want China-US military conflict. The Pentagon is now threatening force to deter Mainland China. This is the result of three considerations. One. Anti-China political sentiment in on the rise in Washington. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker recently applied pressure on Obama, demanding US military action in the East China Sea. Two. Japan, the Philippines, and other Asia-Pacific allies are demonstrating greater leadership compared to the past. Three. Military intimidation may hinder Beijing's one belt, one road maritime Silk Road-building process, delaying the pace of Mainland China's military rise.

Originally the United States had no intention of intervening in East China Sea and South China Sea territorial disputes. It only emphasized freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea. Beijing has reiterated that the facilities on the South China Sea islands and reefs are for meteorological research, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. They will not affect freedom of navigation. The problem is that Washington has never acknowledged Beijing's "never hegemony, never seek hegemony," the declaration of the recent US military layout in the South China Sea is the "freedom of navigation in the South China Sea" as an excuse.

If the US refuses to change its attitude regarding Mainland China's rise, the Mainland and the US will not be able to resolve their structural differences, let alone establish political trust. Washington cannot stop Mainland China's military rise. Mainland China is not about to change its position on South China Sea territorial sovereignty. Instead of military containment, the US should promote strategic cooperation with Mainland China. Fear and suspicion will only increase the risk of China-US conflict and friction.

Secretary of State Kerry's recent high-profile visit to Moscow did little to improve US-Russian relations. His visit to Beijing may not yield any concrete results either. If Washington thinks that military pressure against Beijing is a bargaining chip, it has misjudged the situation. If the two sides clash, the impact on stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region will be serious. America prides itself on leading the Asia-Pacific countries. It must be prudent. For Taiwan, the less stable relations are between Beijing and Washington, the greater the risk to relations across the Strait. Unfortunately Taiwan's partisan political struggles are fierce. The presidential election is approaching. It is at risk as well. When Beijing and Washington clash, Taipei often finds itself the object of reproach. There is no trust between the DPP and the Mainland whatsoever. Therefore it must be especially cautious.


中美衝突再起 小心控管危機
2015-5-18 旺報（中時集團）

摘要: 年初迄今，中美關係波瀾起伏。從亞投行、網路安全、中國威脅論至美日修訂《防衛合作指針》，雙方劍拔弩張，近期再因南海爭端瀕臨軍事衝突。 美國防部日前透露，針對中國在南海島礁填海造地，

年初迄今，中美關係波瀾起伏。從亞投行、網路安全、中國威脅論至美日修訂《防衛合作指針》，雙方劍拔弩張，近期再因南海爭端瀕臨軍事衝突。

美國防部日前透露，針對中國在南海島礁填海造地，依據美軍「通航自由」準則研擬出因應方案，可能的選項包括派遣軍機和戰艦至爭端島礁12海哩內巡航。根據《聯合國海洋法公約》的規定，領海範圍僅12海哩，美軍果真進入，就屬侵犯中國領土主權，是另類的軍事挑釁。

北京外交部敦促華府對南海問題「謹言慎行」，宣示支持南海航行自由，但不容隨意進入中國領海和領空，中方會堅定的維護領土主權。美國務院扮演起白臉的角色，強調美方優先考慮的仍是外交協商。國務卿凱瑞昨日訪問北京，理由是為6月間華府舉行的年度中美戰略對話做安排，實則為傳遞美方立場。

美國以軍事嚇阻手段回應南海爭端已醞釀多時。早在2010年前國務卿希拉蕊時代，南海就定位成美國的重大國家利益，已顯露華府可能採取軍事介入的端倪。去年7月中美第6輪戰略對話，美國倡議「南海凍結」（各方不再奪取島礁、不改變南海地貌、不採行單邊行動），8月在東協外長會議上提議「自願凍結激化南海爭端行為」，足見軍事動作前政治探路的著墨，但各方反應並不積極。北京隨後提出的「雙軌思路」（爭端國和平協商解決，再由中國與東協共維南海和平與穩定），也未獲華府的正面回應。

最近這段時間，東協峰會聲明先表態「南海島礁造地破壞區域和平與安全」、隨後日菲假反海盜之名舉行南海軍演、印馬新三國展開南海聯合巡邏談判、日本更要求美方解除F-22「猛禽」隱形戰機出口禁令，這些一連串具挑釁的動作應非偶然，難掩美國幕後的策畫與導演。

五角大廈不久前公布的《2015年中國軍事與安全發展報告》不斷渲染中國軍事威脅，卻無睹於越南或菲律賓等國同樣在南海島礁軍事建設的舉動，說明了美國的雙重標準全起於對中國軍事崛起的焦慮。美助理國防部長施大偉就直言，中國在南海永暑礁興建的機場跑道將於2018年前竣工，屆時可以停靠航母，對美國維繫西太平洋軍事優勢構成很大的挑戰。

歐巴馬政府陷入內政與外交困境，此時的美國絕不樂見中美爆發軍事衝突，五角大廈此刻擺出武力嚇阻中國的姿態，無非是三項現實考量：華府內部反中的政治氣氛高漲，參院外交關係委員會主席柯克（Bob Corker）日前施壓歐巴馬，要求美軍積極正面回應中國在東亞海域的軍事動作；其次，針對日菲等亞太盟國較已往展現優勢的領導地位；第三，軍事威嚇可阻礙北京「一帶一路」海上絲路的建設進程，拖延中國軍事崛起的腳步。

長期以來，美國都表示無意介入東海和南海領土爭端，只強調南海的航行與飛越自由。北京針對此已多次重申，南海島礁興建設施是為氣象研究、人道救援與救災，不會影響既有的通航自由。問題是，華府從未正視北京「永不爭霸、永不稱霸」的宣示，近期美軍在南海的布局只是把「南海航行自由」當成藉口。

美國防備中國崛起的心態不改，中美關係即無法解決結構性的分歧，遑論政治互信。華府抵擋不住中國軍事崛起的趨勢，中國堅守南海領土主權的立場又不曾鬆動，美國與其篤信軍事圍堵，不如與中國推動戰略合作，懼怕和疑慮只會增添中美衝突與摩擦的風險。

凱瑞國務卿日前高姿態訪問莫斯科，絲毫無助於改善美俄關係，此行北京恐亦無任何具體成果。華府若以為軍事施壓可以增添對北京的談判籌碼，極可能誤判情勢，雙方一旦擦槍走火，必然嚴重衝擊亞太區域的安定與繁榮。美國自詡亞太領導國家，不可不慎。對台灣而言，中美關係愈不穩定，兩岸關係風險更大，不巧的是，台灣政治因總統大選在即黨爭激烈，也進入高風險狀態，台灣在中美兩強間往往動輒得咎，尤其民進黨與大陸間毫無互信可言，更必須謹慎。