Seize One Belt, One Road Opportunities

Seize One Belt, One Road Opportunities
China Times Editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
May 28, 2015

Executive Summary: The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) will be established by the end of the year. The Mainland's One Belt, One Road is taking a giant leap forward. Taiwan longs to profit from the Mainland's One Belt, One Road business opportunities. We must respond to the new cross-Strait situation. We must seize the opportunity. Taiwan enjoys a number of industrial advantages. We must propose a viable cross-Strait co-production strategy. Otherwise, with the rise of the Mainland red supply chain, Taiwan risks marginalization.

Full Text Below:

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) will be established by the end of the year. The Mainland's One Belt, One Road is taking a giant leap forward. Taiwan longs to profit from the Mainland's One Belt, One Road business opportunities. We must respond to the new cross-Strait situation. We must seize the opportunity. Taiwan enjoys a number of industrial advantages. We must propose a viable cross-Strait co-production strategy. Otherwise, with the rise of the Mainland red supply chain, Taiwan risks marginalization.

The Mainland's One Belt, One Road vision establishes interoperability between the Asian, European, and African continents, and their adjacent oceans. It will use railroad and highway infrastructure projects to link the nations' development strategies, explore the potential of regional markets, promote investment and consumption, and create demand and employment. Put plainly, its purpose is to increase regional cooperation.

The One Belt, One Road runs all the way through Asia, Europe and Africa. The One Road, the Maritime Silk Road of the 21st century, is active in the East Asia economic circle, and is highly relevant to Taiwan's geopolitical situation. Meanwhile, the One Belt, the Silk Road economic zone, or developed European economic zone, is Taiwan's major foreign trade market.

Consider the data. The One Belt, One Road encompasses 4.4 billion people and $21 trillion USD. It accounts for nearly 30% of the global economy, an estimated investment of $1.6 trillion USD, and trade approaching $2.5 trillion USD. Any of these numbers loom large in world economic development.

Think tanks on Taiwan are worried. Taiwan must participate in the construction of the One Road, One Belt. It must work with the Mainland to further regional cooperation between Europe, Asia, and Africa. Taiwan has already been plunged into economic crisis. It is on the verge of marginalization and exclusion, especially since the One Belt, One Road will promote Mainland China's global production chain.

In recent years, the Mainland has nutured an independent industry and the rise of the red supply chain. Taiwan's model of re-exporting components to the Mainland for further processing has come under pressure. Recent ROC Customs export data and Ministry of Economic Affairs export orders data show exports to the Mainland falling. This April in particular, showed the largest decline in exports to the Mainland in nearly six years.

The Mainland's One Belt, One Road strategy must not further marginalize or exclude Taiwan. The One Belt, One Road accounts for nearly 30 percent of the global economy. It is the largest regional integration plan of the 21st century. Taiwan must not remain passive or sit on the sidelines. If it does, Taiwan's economic lifeline will be seriously threatened. It may never recover.

This scenario is a nightmare that could well come to pass. One. Cross-Strait relations have entered a critical stage. If the leader elected in 2016 opposes the 1992 consensus and supports Taiwan independence, the basis for peace will evaporate. Political trust, Taiwan's membership in the AIIB, RCEP, TPP and other regional economic organizations may be threatened. During the recent Hsia Zhang meeting, Taiwan's request to join the AIIB was not promptly approved, This reveals the Mainland's wariness toward Taiwan.

Two. Cross-Strait industrial cooperation fails to take into account the One Belt, One Road strategy. Taiwan screams that it wants to profit from the business opportunities provided by the Mainland's One Belt, One Road strategy. But is Taiwan industry prepared?

We all know that the Mainland supply chain has risen. Industrial development on the Mainland has gradually caught up to Taiwan. The Mainland's high-speed rail, nuclear power, and other infrastructure projects have made it highly competitive. Taiwan wants to profit from the Mainland's One Belt, One Road project. But Taiwan cannot join the AIIB. Infrastructure projects require considerable capital. This is not among Taiwan's strengths.

There is only one hope. The One Belt, One Road promotes economic development, regional consumption, and investment in the nations along its path. Taiwan is adept at trade. It might find a foothold there. But such opportunities are long term. They are unlikely to show returns that will help Taiwan's economy in the short term. If Taiwan wants to benefit from the One Belt, One Road, it must understand the Mainland's One Belt, One Road strategy. It must allow Taiwan's industrial advantages to enjoy a synergistic effect. It must seize the initiative. This is especially important in the absence of stable cross-Strait relations. We must regain the initiative. That is even more important. We cannot merely scream about profiting from the economic opportunities provided by the One Belt, One Road. We must offer a strategic blueprint for industrial cooperation. We must be clear on what we want. Passively waiting for the Mainland to make concessions is wishful thinking.

Mainland industries are large in scale. But in certain respects, they lack Taiwan's finesse. They also lack experience in marketization. By contrast, up to 98% of Taiwan's industries are small and medium enterprises. Many of them are stealthy "small is beautiful" champions in their own fields. They include companies such as TXC in the Taoyuan Pingtan Industrial Zone, which manufactures quartz components. Apple, Samsung, Huawei, and other non-Apple mobile phone manufacturers all use their parts. Of the 700 million smart phones the world over, one in five uses TXC's quartz components.

Taiwan has many stealth champions like this, enough to play an important role in the Mainland's One Belt, One Road strategy. It can punch beyond its weight. But it must work as a group, combining the advantages of Taiwan's various industries, then negotiate with Mainland.

The old model for cross-Strait industrial cooperation . involved the government setting up a platform on which companies would then fight for business opportunities on their own. That is no longer viable. Instead, they must work as a team. Former Vice President Vincent Siew said that to profit from the Mainland's One Belt, One Road business opportunities, all walks of life, big and small, must form groups. Only then will they have a strong enough team to seize these opportunities.

抱團主動發掘一帶一路商機
2015-5-28 旺報（中時集團）

亞投行年底即將成立，大陸力推的「一帶一路」正大步邁進，台灣亟盼參與大陸「一帶一路」商機，必須要因應兩岸新情勢、新局勢，積極主動出擊，針對台灣產業優勢，提出具戰略的兩岸產合模式，否則，隨著大陸紅色供應鏈崛起，台灣將陷入邊陲化危機。

大陸提出一帶一路願景，是致力於亞歐非大陸及附近海洋的互聯互通建設，透過鐵公路等互聯互通基礎建設項目的推動，與沿線各國發展戰略對接，發掘區域內市場的潛力，促進投資和消費，創造需求和就業，說白一點就是更深層次的區域合作。

一帶一路貫穿亞歐非大陸，「一路」（21世紀海上絲綢之路），是活躍的東亞經濟圈，與台灣地緣關係密切；「一帶」（絲綢之路經濟帶）則是發達的歐洲經濟圈，是台灣主要外貿市場。

再就數據來看，「一帶一路」沿線涵蓋的人口約44億人，經濟規模達21兆美元，占全球經濟比重近30%，總投資規模估達1.6兆美元，貿易總額高達2.5兆美元；前述的任何一個數字都在世界經濟發展的版圖中，占有非常大的比重。

有不少台灣智庫擔心，如果台灣不能參與「一帶一路」建設，隨著大陸這項貫穿歐亞非大陸的更深層次區域合作成型，已陷入經濟邊陲化危機的台灣，將更無立錐之地，特別是「一帶一路」也將促進中國產業的全球鏈結。

近幾年大陸扶植自主產業，紅色供應鏈崛起，已讓台灣原仗著靠中間零組件銷往大陸再加工出口的模式，面臨壓力。最近台灣海關公布的外貿出口數據及經濟部發布的外銷訂單統計，都出現對大陸出口及接單成長力道減弱的趨勢，特別是今年4月對大陸出口表現及接單成長均出現近6年來的最大衰退，都是警訊。

台灣如果在大陸傾全力推動的「一帶一路」重要戰略下再被排擠或缺席，可以想見這個經濟規模占全球經濟比重近30%、堪稱21世紀最大區域整合，台灣如果被動，或是做壁上觀，台灣經濟命脈，將嚴重受創，在可以預見的未來恐永無翻身之地。

而這種情形，不是不會發生，而是惡夢即可能成真。首先，兩岸關係已進入關鍵節點，如果2016年台灣選出領導人對陸方提出的「九二共識、反台獨」和平基礎上無法正面回應，給予政治互信，則台灣在加入亞投行、乃至參與RCEP或TPP等區域經濟組織，都可能面臨變數。這次夏張會台灣堅定表達參與亞投行未獲立即回應，即可看出大陸對台讓利的審慎。

其次，兩岸產業合作，缺乏因應一帶一路需求的大戰略布局。迄今，台灣喊著要參與大陸一帶一路商機，但要問的是，台灣產業做好準備了嗎？

大家都清楚，大陸在地供應鏈崛起，大陸產業發展水平已逐漸追上台灣，大陸高鐵、核電等基建也具備走出去的競爭格局，台灣想要分食大陸一帶一路商機，但在台灣還無法參與亞投行下，基建工程涉及許多融資，這並不是台灣的強項。

唯一可以期待的是一帶一路發掘沿線國家發展，帶動區域消費及促進投資後，「貿易互通」或許是外貿導向的台灣可以著力的地方，但這樣商機，要假以多時，短期內很難爆發，帶動台灣經濟。台灣想要分食一帶一路商機，必須要針對大陸一帶一路規畫，構思台灣產業優勢能發揮加乘效果部分，主動出擊。特別是未來在缺乏穩定的兩岸關係加持下，化被動為主動，更顯重要，否則口口聲聲說要分食一帶一路商機，但卻又沒有產業合作的大戰略藍圖，或說不出個所以然，想分食商機，被動等待對岸釋善意，恐只是望穿秋水。

大陸產業規模雖然很大，但在許多細緻技術工藝上，沒有台灣精緻，更無市場化的經驗，反觀台灣高達98%中小型企業，不乏是在某些專業領域「小而美」的隱型冠軍。像位於桃園平潭工業區的台灣晶技，製造的石英元件，不管蘋果或是三星、華為等非蘋手機大廠，都使用他的零件，全球7億支智慧手機，每五支就有一支使用台灣晶技的石英元件。

台灣類似這樣的隱型冠軍企業相當多，足擔當在大陸「一帶一路」重要戰略中，發揮「小兵立大功」之效。問題是，需要打群體戰，結合台灣各領域產業優勢，整個去和大陸談判。

兩岸產業合作不能再依循過去政府只搭平台，由企業單打獨鬥談合作的模式，而是必須以團隊的方式，就如同前副總統蕭萬長所強調，要搶食大陸「一帶一路」龐大商機，台灣各界應以大帶小、成群結隊，才能建構堅強團隊來掌握這個商機。