Asian Free Trade Circle: Taiwan Must Not be Excluded

Asian Free Trade Circle: Taiwan Must Not be Excluded
China Times editorial (Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)
A Translation
November 23, 2012

Summary: Recently ASEAN leaders held a summit in the Cambodian capital of Phnom Penh. Each of these governments evinced a pragmatic "economics first" attitude. They actively promoted free trade agreements (FTAs). An Asian free trade bloc is rapidly forming. The Republic of China government must not allow Taiwan to be excluded from this bloc, and isolated. Otherwise it will be increasingly marginalized. Exclusion from this bloc will be highly detrimental to its national growth.

Full Text below:

Not long ago several Asian governments found themselves facing off against each other over the sovereignty of Dokdo Island, the Diaoyutai Islands, and other islands in the South China Sea. But recently ASEAN leaders held a summit in the Cambodian capital of Phnom Penh. Each of these governments evinced a pragmatic "economics first" attitude. They actively promoted free trade agreements (FTAs). An Asian free trade bloc is rapidly forming. The Republic of China must not allow itself to be excluded from this bloc, and isolated. Otherwise it will be increasingly marginalized. Exclusion from this bloc will be highly detrimental to its national growth.

Recently South Korean President Lee Myung-bak landed on the island of Dokdo. The Japanese refer to the island as Takeshima. His landing touched off a sovereignty dispute between Japan and South Korea. Relations between Mainland China and Japan are tense due to a sovereignty dispute over the Diaoyutai Islands. Observers initially assumed that free trade negotiations between Mainland China, Japan, and South Korea would run aground due to these disputes. But the three governments were not deterred by the territorial sovereignty disputes. They announced the official start of trilateral FTA negotiations during an ASEAN meeting between Mainland Chinese, Japanese, and Korean trade ministers.

Mainland China, Japan, and South Korea will begin the first round of negotiations next year, in March and April. They will establish a Free Trade Region encompassing Mainland China, Japan, and South Korea. It will be the third-largest regional market in the world. It will include a population of 1.5 billion. It will include the world's second and third largest economies. Its gross domestic product (GDP) will be valued at 14.3 trillion US dollars. South Korea estimates that over the medium to long term, its GDP growth rate will increase by 1.45 percentage points.

Mainland China, Japan, and South Korea and other ASEAN members, sixteen altogether, will officially begin negotiations over a comprehensive regional economic partnership (RCEP) early next year. Those ready to join the RCEP include 10 ASEAN nations, Mainland China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India.

The United States has been promoting its Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP). It hopes to deepen economic cooperation and trade relations with countries in this region. It hopes to consolidate U.S. influence in Asia. It hopes to avoid a shift in power from the US to Mainland China. But Mainland China and South Korea chose not to join. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda made membership part of his election platform. But the Democratic Party may lose and be forced to hand over power after the general election in December.

To avoid losing the upper hand, U.S. President Barack Obama spoke with ASEAN leaders. He approved the expansion of economic exchanges between the US and ASEAN. He hopes to increase trade and investment relations between the United States and the 10 ASEAN countries. He hopes the TPP will pave the way for ASEAN countries to participate in this United States initiative. Current TPP members include Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam. The United States hopes that the other six ASEAN countries will join as well.

But for other countries in Asia, strategically and economically, Mainland China is becoming more important than the United States. One reason is geographical. Mainland China is right in front of them. Exchanges are extremely convenient. Another reason is economic. The US has been in recession for years. Its fiscal house is not in order. It pays less than Mainland China. A third reason is markets. The population of Mainland China is enormous, its buying power is great. Governments make trade-offs. They have their own calculations. They look to see who can offer them the best deal.

Political struggles call for one to take a stand on principle. But to promote the national interest, one must often avoid confrontation. One must actively and pragmatically promote economic and trade relations. One must demonstrate flexibility. One must use one's chips as effectively as possible, to ensure national prosperity. For example, Mainland China, Japan, and South Korea are fighting bitterly over the Dokdo and Diaoyutai Islands. But this has not prevented their fiscal and economic officials from participating in free trade negotiations.

Now take Taiwan. It has expressed a desire to join the TPP. But TIFA negotiations with the United States must be restarted. A Taiwan-US free trade agreement is a long way off. It is even farther off than the TPP. Singapore was the first country to begin signing FTAs with others. But so far negotiations have not led to agreements. The only completed agreements have been ECFA between Taiwan and the Mainland.

FTA negotiations are complex. In particular, imports of agricultural products are sure to impact local industry. Negotiations must proceed cautiously. Otherwise they may lead to a domestic backlash. Taiwan's FTA negotiations have been so slow that people have become impatient.

Mainland China, Japan, and South Korea are officially launching free trade negotiations. Negotiations over RCEP are also set to begin. An Asian free trade bloc is forming. Taiwan's economy is heavily dependent upon trade. It must not allow itself to be excluded from these FTA circles. Otherwise its plight will be even more difficult. According to the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Mainland China, Japan, and South Korea FTA will cause Taiwan's exports to fall by 1.17%. The decrease in real GDP will be 1.155%. That is over 130 billion NT dollars. Once the RCEP is signed, the estimated impact on Taiwan will increase to between five and ten percent. This is a time of economic recession. Such numbers are salt rubbed into the wound. How can one not be frightened?

Other economies are benefitting from dramatically reduced tariffs. Taiwan meanwhile, must cope with higher capital costs and barriers to trade. Other economies are benefitting and assisting each other. Taiwan meanwhile, must go it alone. Our economic competitiveness is being affected. The government must accelerate the pace of FTA negotiations. It must seek participation in regional free trade blocs. Time waits for no man. We cannot afford to fall behind. An Asian free trade circle is forming. Taiwan cannot afford to wait. He who hesistates is lost.

亞洲自由貿易圈成形 台灣切莫落單
    2012-11-23
    中國時報

　前不久的亞洲，才為了南海、獨島和釣魚台主權爭議，相關國家針鋒相對、劍拔弩張，但日前在柬埔寨首都金邊召開的東南亞國協領袖峰會上，各國卻展現經濟優先的務實態度，積極推動自由貿易協定（ＦＴＡ）。面對亞洲自由貿易區塊的迅速成形，台灣如果一直落單在外，恐將日趨邊緣化，對未來國家發展相當不利。

　近來日韓之間因南韓總統李明博登獨島（日稱竹島）而再度挑動主權之爭，中日之間則為了釣魚台主權爭議關係緊張，原本外界認為中日韓自由貿易談判會因此擱淺，但三國仍然決定不受領土主權之爭影響，在東亞領袖會議的中日韓貿易部長級會議上宣布，正式啟動洽簽三國ＦＴＡ談判。

　中日韓預定明年三、四月間展開第一輪談判；一旦中日韓自由貿易區成立，將成為世界第三大區域統合市場，涵蓋十五億人口、全球第二及第三大經濟體，名目國內生產毛額（ＧＤＰ）總值達十四．三兆美元。南韓估計，中期至長期而言，南韓ＧＤＰ成長率可望增加一．四五個百分點。

　接著，中日韓與東協等亞洲十六個國家，也決定明年初正式啟動「區域全面經濟夥伴關係」（ＲＣＥＰ）談判，準備加入「ＲＣＥＰ」的國家包括東協十國、中國、日本、南韓、澳洲、紐西蘭及印度。

　過去以來美國一直想推動「跨太平洋戰略經濟夥伴關係協議」（ＴＰＰ），顯然是想藉此深化與此區國家的經貿合作關係，鞏固美國在亞洲的影響力，以免美中勢力此消彼長。但是中、韓都不參加，日本首相野田佳彥表示願以此為選舉訴求，不過民主黨恐將在十二月的大選落敗而交出政權。

　而為了不落入下風，美國總統歐巴馬與東協領袖會談時，也敲定啟動「美國─東協擴大經濟交往」方案，以擴大美國與東協十國間的貿易與投資關係，並希望為東協國家參與美國倡議的ＴＰＰ鋪路。目前ＴＰＰ已有新加坡、汶萊、馬來西亞和越南參與，美國希望其他東協六國也都能加入。

　不過，對亞洲其他國家來說，無論就戰略還是經濟發展，中國的重要性逐漸取代美國。一來在地理上，中國近在眼前，交流極為方便。二來在經濟籌碼上，美國這些年來景氣低迷，財政自顧不暇，手筆不比中國。三來在市場上，中國大陸人口多、買力強。取捨之間，各國自有盤算，但看哪個方案對自己最實惠。

　的確，政治之爭固有必須堅持的立場，但為了增進國家利益，必要時暫時擱下對立，積極務實地推動經貿關係，才能靈活運用籌碼為國家開創生機。例如中日韓雖然為獨島和釣魚台吵得不可開交，但仍無礙於財經部門推動自由貿易談判。

　反觀台灣，雖然已經表示希望加入ＴＰＰ，但和美國的ＴＩＦＡ談判才要重啟，離台美自由貿易協定還有一段距離，離ＴＰＰ則更遠。在和其他國家洽簽ＦＴＡ方面，最早啟動的新加坡談判到現在還沒完成簽署，至今真正完成的只有與大陸的ＥＣＦＡ。

　雖說自貿談判內容複雜，尤其農產品進口勢將對本地產業造成衝擊，談判必須步步為營，否則恐將引發國內反彈，但就台灣的自貿談判進度來說，也實在慢得讓人心急。

　尤其，眼見中日韓正式啟動自由貿易談判，ＲＣＥＰ也要開始推動，亞洲自由貿易區塊紛紛成形，台灣經濟仰賴貿易至深，如果被這些大大小小的自貿圈排擠在外，處境會更加艱難。據經濟部評估，中日韓ＦＴＡ將使台灣出口最高下降一．一七％，實質ＧＤＰ減少一．一五五％（一千三百多億台幣）；如果ＲＣＥＰ談成，預估對台灣的衝擊更增加五％到十％。在不景氣中，這樣的數字宛如雪上加霜的風暴，能不令人心驚嗎？

　當其他國家可以因為關稅大減而獲利時，台灣卻得面對成本負擔與貿易障礙；當其他國家互利互助，台灣卻必須單打獨鬥時，我國的經濟競爭力一定會受到影響。政府除了加快腳步進行既有的ＦＴＡ談判外，也必須努力尋找參與區域自貿集團的管道。機會是不等人的，競爭不能落後，面對亞洲自由貿易圈的成形，台灣不能再觀望躊躇了。